AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares inched up on Wednesday, as Chinese stocks extended their recovery to hit eight-week highs on receding fears about the trade war as well as hopes China’s weighting in the global benchmark will be increased. The news further improved the mood of the market, where fears about the trade war have been offset by hopes Beijing’s stimulus could help the economy weather the impact of U.S. tariffs. Wall Street shares were mixed overnight, as rises in energy shares on higher oil prices and gains in consumer discretionary shares following strong U.S. consumer confidence were offset by falls in many other sectors. U.S. consumer confidence hit an 18-year high, adding to a string of recent U.S. data that pointed to the strong U.S. economic momentum, despite concerns about trade wars U.S. President Donald Trump is waging. The utility sector, sometimes seen as an alternative to bonds because of the relative steadiness of their business, was the worst performer as investors braced for a rate hike by the FED later on Wednesday The Fed’s past policy statements have shown that policy makers see 2.9%, about 100 basis points above the current levels, as an appropriate level in the longer run. That means the Fed would hit that level with only two more rate hikes, if it will bump up rates twice more this year as widely expected.
  • U.S. consumer confidence surged to an 18-year high in September as households grew more upbeat about the labor market, pointing to sustained strength in the economy despite an increasingly bitter trade dispute between the United States and China. While other data on Tuesday showed a moderation in house price increases in July, the gains probably remain sufficient to boost household wealth and continue to support consumer spending, as well as making home purchasing a bit more affordable for first-time buyers. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 138.4 this month from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August. That was the best reading since September 2000 and the index is not too far from an all-time high of 144.7 reached that year. Consumers’ assessment of labor market conditions improved sharply even as the trade war between the United States and China escalated, which economists warned would lead to job losses and higher prices for consumers. Washington on Monday slapped tariffs on $200 bn worth of Chinese goods, with Beijing retaliating with duties on $60 bn worth of U.S. products. The United States and China had already imposed tariffs on $50 bn worth of each other’s goods. For now, consumers appear to be shrugging off the trade tensions. Households were this month upbeat about business conditions over the next six months, with many planning purchases of household appliances, motor vehicles and houses. The Conference Board consumer survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data about respondents who think jobs are hard to get and those who think jobs are plentiful, rose to 32.5 in September, the highest level since January 2001, from 30.2 in August. This measure, which closely correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’ employment report, is pointing to further declines in the jobless rate and labor market slack. The labor market is viewed as either at or near full employment, with the jobless rate at 3.9%. The robust labor market, together with the strong economy and steadily rising inflation, have left economists confident that the FED will raise interest rates on Wednesday for the third time this year. The consumer confidence report added to fairly upbeat data on consumer spending and manufacturing that have suggested solid economic growth in the third quarter. GDP increased at a 4.2% annualized rate in the second quarter. Growth estimates for the July-September quarter are above a 3.0% pace.
  • Brent oil edged further away from a four-year high on Wednesday and U.S. crude fell, after the U.S. said it would ensure crude markets are well supplied before sanctions are re-imposed on Iran and as President Donald Trump criticized high prices. In a speech at the UN, Trump reiterated calls on the OPEC to pump more oil and stop raising prices. He also accused Iran of sowing chaos and promised further sanctions on the OPEC member after restrictions on its oil exports are imposed from early November. The so-called 'OPEC+' group, which includes Russia, Oman and Kazakhstan, met over the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the group was in no rush to do so. Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC secretary general, said in Madrid on Tuesday that OPEC and its partners should cooperate to ensure they do not "fall from one crisis to another". Also weighing on sentiment was an industry report showing U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly climbed last week. Crude inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 21 to 400 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 1.3 million barrels, the API said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 73.00-73.90 74.50 75.60
EURO/USD 1.1760-1.1800 1.1850 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3250-1.3320 1.3400
USD/JPY 113.20-114.00 114.70 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 72.00 71.40 70.60-70.00
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1660 1.1610 1.1540-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 112.50-112.00 111.50 111.00-110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (26th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1203.26/oz and low of US$1197.03/oz. Gold up by 0.196% at US$1201.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172 with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.462

Buy
20-DMA   1199.59 Sell
50-DMA  

1204.40

Sell
100-DMA   1241.03 Sell
200-DMA   1282.95 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.034 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.54/oz and low of US$14.20/oz. Silver settled up by % at US$14.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.810 Buy
20-DMA   14.25 Sell
50-DMA   14.79 Sell
100-DMA   15.57 Sell
200-DMA   16.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.714 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.167 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.64/bbl, intraday low of US$71.81/bbl and settled down by 0.263% to close at US$71.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 73.00-75.60 with stop loss at 75.60; targeting 72.00-71.40-70.60 and 70.00-69.00. Buy above 72.00-68.50 with risk daily closing below 68.50 and targeting 73.00-73.90 and 74.50-75.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.00
S2     71.40
S3     70.60-70.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     73.00-73.90
R2     74.50
R3     75.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.160 Sell
20-DMA   69.62 Buy
50-DMA   68.34 Buy
100-DMA   68.64 Buy
200-DMA   66.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.954 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1730/EUR, high of US$1.1791/EUR and settled the day up by 0.161% to close at US$1.1765/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1690-1.1660
S2     1.1610
S3     1.1540-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1760-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.031 Buy
20-DMA   1.1651 Sell
50-DMA   1.1608 Sell
100-DMA   1.1661 Sell
200-DMA   1.1944 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.712 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0035 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3094/GBP, high of US$1.3192/GBP and settled the day up by 0.442% to close at US$1.3174/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3400 with targets at 1.3140-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2870. Buy above 1.3140-1.2800 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3250-1.3320
R3     1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.972

Buy
20-DMA   1.3038 Buy
50-DMA   1.2980 Buy
100-DMA   1.3146 Buy
200-DMA   1.3513 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.962 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0059 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.40/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.302% at JPY112.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.50-112.00
S2     111.50
S3     111.00-110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.20-114.00
R2     114.70
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.293 Buy
20-DMA   111.72 Buy
50-DMA   111.39 Buy
100-DMA   110.86 Buy
200-DMA   109.74 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   84.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.424 Sell

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