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  • The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. In a statement that marked the end of the era of “accommodative” monetary policy, Fed policymakers lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent. The U.S. central bank still foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. That would put the benchmark overnight lending rate at 3.4 percent, roughly half a percentage point above the Fed’s estimated “neutral” rate of interest, at which rates neither stimulate nor restrict the economy. That tight policy stance is projected to stay level through 2021, the timeframe of the Fed’s latest economic projections. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the removal of the wording, which had been a staple of the central bank’s guidance for financial markets and households for much of the past decade, did not signal a policy outlook change. The Fed sees the economy growing at a faster-than-expected 3.1 percent this year and continuing to expand moderately for at least three more years, amid sustained low unemployment and stable inflation near its 2 percent target. The Fed inserted no substitute language for the dropped ‘accommodative’ wording in its statement. That wording had become less and less accurate since the central bank began increasing rates in late 2015 from a near-zero level, and its removal means the Fed now considers rates near neutral. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, U.S., September 26, 2018. Wednesday’s rate increase once again drew criticism from President Donald Trump, who has complained that the Fed’s actions are countering his efforts to boost the economy. Powell, at his press conference, declined to say whether Fed policymakers had discussed Trump’s previous criticism of the central bank. Last month, Trump expressed his displeasure about rising rates and said the Fed should do more to boost the economy. Powell, who was appointed by Trump and took over as Fed chairman earlier this year, said the central bank would remain independent. Wednesday’s rate hike was the third this year and the seventh in the last eight quarters. Ahead of Wednesday’s statement, traders put the chance of a rate increase at 95 percent, according to CME Group. The Fed’s latest projections show the economy continuing at a steady pace through 2019, with gross domestic product growth seen at 2.5 percent next year before slowing to 2.0 percent in 2020 and to 1.8 percent in 2021, as the impact of recent tax cuts and government spending fade. Inflation was forecast to hover near 2 percent over the next three years, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent next year and remain there through 2020 before rising slightly in 2021. The jobless rate is currently 3.9 percent.
  • Oil prices rose by 1% on Thursday as investors focused on the prospect of tighter markets due to U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, which are set to be implemented in November. Traders said oil markets were tightening ahead of Washington's planned sanctions on Iran's petroleum industry from Nov. 4. At its 2018 peak, Iran exported around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, equivalent to 3 percent of global consumption. Shipping data shows Iran September exports fell to around 2 million bpd as buyers around the world bow to U.S. pressure and cut imports. The OPEC has little spare capacity to make up for an expected shortfall in Iranian exports. Reflecting expectations of lower supply from the Middle East, Oman crude futures on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange touched their highest in four years on Wednesday, briefly jumping above $90 a barrel. While global oil markets tighten, supply in the United States is ample, thanks to rising output. U.S. crude production hit a record 11.1 million bpd in the week ending Sept. 21, according to data from the EIA. That's an increase of almost a third since mid-2016. Commercial crude stocks rose by 1.85 million barrels, to 395.99 million barrels, the EIA data showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 73.00-73.90 74.50 75.60
EURO/USD 1.1760-1.1800 1.1850 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3250-1.3320 1.3400
USD/JPY 113.20-114.00 114.70 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 72.00 71.40 70.60-70.00
EURO/USD 1.1610 1.1610 1.1540-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3060 1. 2990 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 112.50-112.00 111.50 111.00-110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (27th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1202.40/oz and low of US$1190.37/oz. Gold down by 0.558% at US$1194.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172 with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.462

Buy
20-DMA   1199.59 Sell
50-DMA  

1204.40

Sell
100-DMA   1241.03 Sell
200-DMA   1282.95 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.034 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.49/oz and low of US$14.29/oz. Silver settled down by 0.832% at US$14.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.810 Buy
20-DMA   14.25 Sell
50-DMA   14.79 Sell
100-DMA   15.57 Sell
200-DMA   16.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.714 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.167 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.30/bbl, intraday low of US$71.41/bbl and settled down by 0.041% to close at US$71.97/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 73.00-75.60 with stop loss at 75.60; targeting 72.00-71.40-70.60 and 70.00-69.00. Buy above 72.00-68.50 with risk daily closing below 68.50 and targeting 73.00-73.90 and 74.50-75.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.00
S2     71.40
S3     70.60-70.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     73.00-73.90
R2     74.50
R3     75.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.160 Sell
20-DMA   69.62 Buy
50-DMA   68.34 Buy
100-DMA   68.64 Buy
200-DMA   66.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.954 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1725/EUR, high of US$1.1796/EUR and settled the day down by 0.330% to close at US$1.1735/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1610
S2     1.1610
S3     1.1540-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1760-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.031 Buy
20-DMA   1.1651 Sell
50-DMA   1.1608 Sell
100-DMA   1.1661 Sell
200-DMA   1.1944 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.712 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0035 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3137/GBP, high of US$1.3216/GBP and settled the day down by 0.113% to close at US$1.3162/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3400 with targets at 1.3140-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2870. Buy above 1.3140-1.2800 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3060
S2     1. 2990
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3250-1.3320
R3     1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.972

Buy
20-DMA   1.3038 Buy
50-DMA   1.2980 Buy
100-DMA   1.3146 Buy
200-DMA   1.3513 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.962 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0059 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.62/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.12/USD and settled the day down by 0.230% at JPY112.70/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.20-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.50-112.00-111.00 and 110.70-110.20. Long positions above 112.50-110.00 with targets of 113.20-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.50-112.00
S2     111.50
S3     111.00-110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.20-114.00
R2     114.70
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.293 Buy
20-DMA   111.72 Buy
50-DMA   111.39 Buy
100-DMA   110.86 Buy
200-DMA   109.74 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   84.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.424 Sell

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