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Daily Market Lookup

  • European shares fell in early trade on Thursday, led lower by defensive stocks, while banks tracked gains by their U.S. peers after strong data lifted Treasury yields to their highest since mid-2011. The U.S. dollar rose while the Japanese yen fell on Thursday following a positive private sectors job data. The ADP and Moody’s Analytics revealed on Thursday that U.S. services and private payrolls increased by 230,000 in September. Economists had expected the ADP nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 187,000 jobs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech in Boston on Wednesday that the economic outlook was "remarkably positive" and that rates might rise above "neutral", currently anywhere from 2.5 to 3%. A report from Pacific Investment Management warned that Australia’s housing slump raised the possibility of debt downgrades for local big banks. he U.S. dollar eased but remained near one-and-a-half month highs against a currency basket on Thursday, tracking a spike in Treasury yields on robust U.S. data and indications from the Federal Reserve that interest rates will continue to rise. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. service sector activity accelerated to a 21-year high in September and another report showed that private sector hiring increased at the fastest pace in seven months in September. Adding to the upbeat mood, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the U.S. central bank may raise interest rates above an estimated "neutral" setting as the U.S. economy continues to grow. “Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they’ll be neutral,” neither holding back nor spurring economic growth, Powell said. “We may go past neutral. But we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably,” he added. The euro had initially risen Wednesday, as reports that Italy plans to cut its budget deficit after next year eased concerns over the prospect of a wider deficit that had rattled markets, before reversing those gains. The dollar slid lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.26% to 114.23 after hitting an eleven-month high of 114.53 on Wednesday.
  • Oil prices on Thursday slipped from four-year highs reached the previous session, pressured by rising U.S. inventories and after sources said Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise crude output. Brent on Wednesday hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel, lifted by expectations of a tightening market ahead of U.S. sanctions that will target Iran's oil exports from next month. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 8 million barrels last week to about 404 million barrels, the biggest increase since March 2017, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. U.S. weekly Midwest refinery utilization rates dropped to 78.9 percent, their lowest since October 2015, according to the data. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production remained at a record-high of 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise oil output to cool rising prices, Reuters reported on Wednesday, before consulting with other producers, including the rest of the OPEC. Russia's and Saudi Arabia's actions come as markets have heated up ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil sector, which are set to kick in from Nov. 4, and which many analysts expect to knock around 1.5 million bpd of supply out of markets. On the demand side, there is increasing concern that high oil prices and weakening emerging market currencies are creating a toxic inflationary mix that could erode fuel demand and economic growth. The energy consultancy said it had revised its oil demand forecast downwards amid Brent prices above $80 and diving currencies in many emerging markets, as well as burgeoning product stocks and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade dispute. "We are not talking about cosmetic changes either. We have cut our forecast for 2018 demand growth by a whopping 300,000 bpd to below 1.1 million bpd," it said. The impact of surging fuel costs is starting to show. In India, record retail fuel prices have contributed to farmer riots, in what is becoming a challenge to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an election that must be held by May.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,232
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 76.50 77.00 78.00
EURO/USD 1.1500-1.1540 1.1610 1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3140 1.3060-1.3140 1.3200
USD/JPY 116.50 116.50 116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,194 1,182-1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.00 13.61 14.80
Crude Oil 75.60 74.50-73.90 73.00
EURO/USD 1.1380 1.1380 1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2950-1.2890 1.2790 1.2700
USD/JPY 112.50 112.50 116.50

Intra-Day Strategy (4th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1227 keeping stop loss closing above 1227, targeting 1194-1184-1172 and 1166-1159. Buy above 1194-1159 with risk below 1159, targeting 1191-1207-1214 and 1220-1227
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1208.23/oz and low of US$1196.49/oz. Gold down by 0.462% at US$1197.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1227 keeping stop loss closing above 1227, targeting 1194-1184-1172 and 1166-1159. Buy above 1194-1159 with risk below 1159, targeting 1191-1207-1214 and 1220-1227

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1227 keeping stop loss closing above 1227, targeting 1194-1184-1172 and 1166-1159. Buy above 1194-1159 with risk below 1159, targeting 1191-1207-1214 and 1220-1227.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,194
S2     1,182-1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,232

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.967

Buy
20-DMA   1198.21 Sell
50-DMA  

1200.95

Sell
100-DMA   1235.31 Sell
200-DMA   1281.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.248 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.733 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.81/oz and low of US$14.60/oz. Silver settled down by 0.341% at US$14.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.40-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.953 Buy
20-DMA   14.29 Sell
50-DMA   14.68 Sell
100-DMA   15.45 Sell
200-DMA   16.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.02 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.054 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$76.78/bbl, intraday low of US$73.96/bbl and settled down by 1.45% to close at US$76.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 75.60-78.00 with stop loss at 78.00; targeting 74.50-73.90-73.00 and 72.00-71.40. Buy above 74.50-71.40 with risk daily closing below 71.40 and targeting 75.60-76.50 and 77.00-78.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     75.60
S2     74.50-73.90
S3     73.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     76.50
R2     77.00
R3     78.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   74.990 Sell
20-DMA   70.51 Buy
50-DMA   68.83 Buy
100-DMA   68.76 Buy
200-DMA   66.45 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.021 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.593 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1463/EUR, high of US$1.1592/EUR and settled the day down by 0.597% to close at US$1.1475/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1460-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1500-1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1500-1.1700 targeting 1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1380
S2     1.1380
S3     1.1300

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1500-1.1540
R2     1.1610
R3     1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.367 Buy
20-DMA   1.1640 Sell
50-DMA   1.1597 Sell
100-DMA   1.1639 Sell
200-DMA   1.1934 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.207 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2923/GBP, high of US$1.3022/GBP and settled the day down by 0.315% to close at US$1.2935/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3320 with targets at 1.2990-1.2950 and 1.2890-1.2790. Buy above 1.3000-1.2800 with targets 1.3060-1.3140-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950-1.2890
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3140
R2     1.3060-1.3140
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.012

Buy
20-DMA   1.3071 Buy
50-DMA   1.2969 Buy
100-DMA   1.3111 Buy
200-DMA   1.3503 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.00 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.51/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.53/USD and settled the day up by 0.800% at JPY114.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.56), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.50-116.50 with risk above 116.50 targeting 114.00-113.20-112.50 and 112.00-111.00. Long positions above 114.00-111.00 with targets of 114.70-115.50 and 116.00-116.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.50
S2     112.50
S3     116.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     116.50
R2     116.50
R3     116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.725 Buy
20-DMA   112.29 Buy
50-DMA   111.56 Buy
100-DMA   111.05 Buy
200-DMA   109.75 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   89.691 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.645 Sell

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