AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares hit 17-month lows on Tuesday as China allowed its currency to slip past a psychological bulwark amid sharp losses in domestic share markets, a shift that pressured other emerging currencies to depreciate to stay competitive. The IMF added to the malaise by cutting forecasts of global growth for both this year and next, including downgrades to the outlook for the United States, China and Europe. China’s central bank on Tuesday fixed its yuan at 6.9019 per dollar, so breaching the 6.9000 barrier and leading speculators to push the dollar up to 6.9320 in the spot market. Treasuries have had a sort of safety net up to now as rising yields tend to dampen stocks and threaten the economic outlook, thus putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to go slow on policy tightening. Yet recently the Fed has sounded so bullish on the economy and so hawkish on rates that the net has become frayed. Italy’s borrowing costs have surged as a war of words between Rome and the European Union over the country’s budget plans escalated The yield on Italian government 10-year bonds rose more than 20 basis points to 3.626 percent, the highest since February 2014, while Italy’s FTSE MIB stock index fell to its weakest since April 2017.
  • The dollar slipped against the safe-haven yen in Asia on Tuesday on simmering anxiety about higher U.S. bond yields, the Sino-U.S. trade war and political turmoil in Europe. Yamamoto said his view is that while the U.S. economy remains strong the correction of U.S. equity markets and the subsequent fall in dollar/yen should be short-lived. On Sunday, China's central bank move to inject more liquidity into the financial system, as policy makers stepped up support for the economy in the face of a dimming outlook amid the heated Sino-U.S. trade conflict A senior U.S. Treasury official said on Monday the United States remains concerned about China's recent currency depreciation.
  • Oil prices held little changed on Tuesday, as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran are declining in the run-up to the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, while a hurricane moved across the Gulf of Mexico. Iran's crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, taking a major hit from U.S. sanctions and throwing a challenge to other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall. The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd. That's down from at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before President Donald Trump in May withdrew the U.S. from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September. Last week, Saudi Arabia announced plans to lift crude output next month to 10.7 million bpd, a record. Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Monday called a Saudi claim that the kingdom could replace Iran's crude exports "nonsense." Gulf of Mexico oil companies shut down 19 percent of oil production as Hurricane Michael moved toward eastern Gulf states including Florida. If current forecasts prove accurate, the hurricane would largely miss major producing assets in the Gulf, analysts said, but any change of track could widen the impact.
  • Emerging markets were “as prepared as they can be” for changes to U.S. monetary policy as the Federal Reserve had been as “transparent” as possible, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said in Singapore on Monday. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speaks at a public lecture in Singapore October 8, 2018. Some emerging markets have come under pressure this year as rising U.S. interest rates have drawn investors away, and due to fears of fall out from an escalating tariff war between the United States and China. The Fed last month raised U.S. interest rates for the third time this year, and foresees another hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. Rising U.S. rates, coupled with fears over the impact of U.S.-Sino trade war, have hurt emerging Asia, and currency, bond and share markets in India, Indonesia and the Philippines and elsewhere in the region have all come under pressure. Bullard said U.S. policymakers were keeping an eye on economic developments in emerging markets in case they pose risks for the United States, but for now such risks appeared to be contained. In earlier remarks, Bullard said productivity gains were needed for the United States to maintain its current growth rates, which could be achieved through investments and technology. The Fed sees the U.S. economy growing at a faster-than-expected 3.1 percent this year and continuing to expand moderately for at least three more years.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,194 1,207-1,214 1,220
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 74.50 75.60-76.50 77.00
EURO/USD 1.1500 1.1540-1.1610 1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3290 1.3350
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,182-1,174 1,166 1,160
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 73.90-73.00 72.60 72.00
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1432 1.1380 1.3830
GBP/USD 1.3060 1.2950-1.2890 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 113.00 112.50 112.00-111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (9th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1203.99/oz and low of US$1183.18/oz. Gold down by 1.294% at US$1187.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1227 keeping stop loss closing above 1227, targeting 1184-1172 and 1166-1159. Buy above 1184-1159 with risk below 1159, targeting 1191-1207-1214 and 1220-1227.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,182-1,174
S2     1,166
S3     1,160
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,194
R2     1,207-1,214
R3     1,220

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.235

Buy
20-DMA   1197.36 Sell
50-DMA  

1198.61

Sell
100-DMA   1231.37 Sell
200-DMA   1279.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.248 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.247 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.64/oz and low of US$14.25/oz. Silver settled down by 1.841% at US$14.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.40-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.953 Buy
20-DMA   14.29 Sell
50-DMA   14.68 Sell
100-DMA   15.45 Sell
200-DMA   16.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.02 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.054 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$74.49/bbl, intraday low of US$73.00/bbl and settled down by 0.363% to close at US$74.07/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

stop loss at 77.00; targeting 73.90-73.00 and 72.00-71.40. Buy above 73.90-71.40 with risk daily closing below 71.40 and targeting 74.50-75.60-76.50 and 77.00-78.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     73.90-73.00
S2     72.60
S3     72.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     74.50
R2     75.60-76.50
R3     77.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.002 Sell
20-DMA   72.12 Buy
50-DMA   69.41 Buy
100-DMA   68.90 Buy
200-DMA   66.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.611 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1459/EUR, high of US$1.1529/EUR and settled the day down by 0.269% to close at US$1.1489/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1460-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1500-1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1500-1.1700 targeting 1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460-1.1432
S2     1.1380
S3     1.3830

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1500
R2     1.1540-1.1610
R3     1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.512 Buy
20-DMA   1.1628 Sell
50-DMA   1.1586 Sell
100-DMA   1.1630 Sell
200-DMA   1.1927 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.178 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3027/GBP, high of US$1.3132/GBP and settled the day down by 0.670% to close at US$1.3083/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2970) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3320 with targets at 1.2990-1.2950 and 1.2890-1.2790. Buy above 1.3000-1.2800 with targets 1.3060-1.3140-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3060
S2     1.2950-1.2890
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3290
R3     1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.362

Buy
20-DMA   1.3090 Buy
50-DMA   1.2969 Buy
100-DMA   1.3101 Buy
200-DMA   1.3495 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.886 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY112.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.93/USD and settled the day down by 0.492% at JPY113.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.56), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.56), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     112.50
S3     112.00-111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   91.745 Buy
20-DMA   112.17 Buy
50-DMA   111.50 Buy
100-DMA   111.01 Buy
200-DMA   109.75 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.748 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.612 Sell

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