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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares barely moved on Wednesday after world stocks hit eight-week lows the previous day on worries about global economic growth, although the British pound stayed firm on hopes for a Brexit deal. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR touched a 7-1/2-year peak of 3.261 percent and those on 30-year bonds US30YT=RR hit their highest in more than four years, but later fell back. Some traders say comments on Tuesday by U.S. President Donald Trump helped cool Treasuries yields. He said the Federal Reserve was going too fast in raising rates when inflation was minimal and government data pointed to a strong economy. Italian government bond yields also fell from multi-year highs after Economy Minister Giovanni Tria pledged to do whatever is necessary to restore calm if market turbulence turns into a financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund cut global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, as well as its U.S. and China estimates for next year, saying the two countries would feel the brunt of the impact of their trade war next year. Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after the IMF lowered its global growth forecasts but prices were somewhat supported as Hurricane Michael churned towards Florida, causing the shutdown of nearly 40 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output.
  • The dollar slipped further from seven-week highs on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury yields edged lower overnight while sterling took some comfort on hopes Britain and the European Union might be close to a Brexit deal. The greenback's rally against its major peers paused despite looming uncertainty over a slate of issues, including the intensifying Sino-U.S. trade dispute and Italy's budget plans. The euro got a lift from a Dow Jones Newswires report that an agreement on the terms for Britain to leave the economic bloc may be reached as soon as Monday. Tria said that Italy will do whatever is necessary to restore calm if market turbulence turns into a financial crisis, adding fears over the country's budget plan for next year were unjustified though his remarks failed to reassure investors. The European Commission warned last week that Italy's deficit plans represented "a significant deviation from the fiscal path recommended by the Council". The Chinese yuan held steady near a seven-week low against the greenback after a liquidity squeeze in the offshore yuan market in Hong Kong on Tuesday helped stabilize sentiment.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after the IMF lowered its global growth forecasts but prices were supported as Hurricane Michael churned toward Florida, causing the shutdown of nearly 40 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 on Tuesday, potentially tempering demand for oil and its products. Trade tensions and rising import tariffs were taking a toll on commerce, while emerging markets struggle with tighter financial conditions and capital outflows, the IMF said. In the United States, nearly 40 percent of daily crude oil production was lost from offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico wells on Tuesday because of platform evacuations and shut-ins ahead of Hurricane Michael. Oil producers evacuated personnel from 75 platforms as the storm made its way through the central Gulf on the way to landfall on Wednesday on the Florida Panhandle. The country's largest privately owned crude terminal, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC, said late on Tuesday it had halted operations at its marine terminal. The facility is the only U.S. port able to fully load and unload tankers with a capacity of 2 million barrels of oil. Companies turned off daily production of about 670,800 barrels of oil and 726 million cubic feet of natural gas by midday on Tuesday, according to offshore regulator the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Iran's crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, as buyers sought alternatives ahead of U.S. sanctions that take effect on Nov. 4. Industry and government data on U.S. crude inventories will be delayed by one day this week because of Monday's U.S. Columbus Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute is due to release data on Wednesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to publish on Thursday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,194 1,207-1,214 1,220
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 74.50 75.60-76.50 77.00
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1610 1.1690 1.1730
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3290 1.3350
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,182-1,174 1,166 1,160
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 73.90-73.00 72.60 72.00
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1432 1.1380 1.3830
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3060 1.2950-1.2890 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 113.00 112.50 112.00-111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (10th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1191.80/oz and low of US$1183.23/oz. Gold up by 0.131% at US$1189.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

stop loss closing above 1227, targeting 1184-1172 and 1166-1159. Buy above 1184-1159 with risk below 1159, targeting 1191-1207-1214 and 1220-1227.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,182-1,174
S2     1,166
S3     1,160
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,194
R2     1,207-1,214
R3     1,220

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.825

Buy
20-DMA   1197.33 SellSell
50-DMA  

1198.60

Sell
100-DMA   1231.36 Sell
200-DMA   1279.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.248 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.247 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.42/oz and low of US$14.25/oz. Silver settled up by 0.034% at US$14.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.953 Buy
20-DMA   14.29 Sell
50-DMA   14.68 Sell
100-DMA   15.45 Sell
200-DMA   16.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.02 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.054 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$75.16/bbl, intraday low of US$73.92/bbl and settled up by 0.566% to close at US$74.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 74.50-77.00 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 73.90-73.00 and 72.00-71.40. Buy above 73.90-71.40 with risk daily closing below 71.40 and targeting 74.50-75.60-76.50 and 77.00-78.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     73.90-73.00
S2     72.60
S3     72.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     74.50
R2     75.60-76.50
R3     77.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.002 Sell
20-DMA   72.12 Buy
50-DMA   69.41 Buy
100-DMA   68.90 Buy
200-DMA   66.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.611 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1502/EUR, high of US$1.1502/EUR and settled the day up by 0.01% to close at US$1.1488/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1460-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1500-1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1500-1.1700 targeting 1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460-1.1432
S2     1.1380
S3     1.3830

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1540-1.1610
R2     1.1690
R3     1.1730

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.334 Buy
20-DMA   1.1628 Sell
50-DMA   1.1586 Sell
100-DMA   1.1630 Sell
200-DMA   1.1927 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.178 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3032/GBP, high of US$1.3149/GBP and settled the day up by 0.435% to close at US$1.3141/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2970) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3350 with targets at 1.3140-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2890. Buy above 1.3140-1.2890 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3060
S2     1.2950-1.2890
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3290
R3     1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.402

Buy
20-DMA   1.3098 Buy
50-DMA   1.2970 Buy
100-DMA   1.3100 Buy
200-DMA   1.3494 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.86/USD and settled the day down by 0.238% at JPY112.94/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.56), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.50 with risk above 116.50 targeting 113.00-112.50 and 112.00-111.00. Long positions above 113.00-111.00 with targets of 114.00-114.70-115.50 and 116.00-116.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     112.50
S3     112.00-111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   91.745 Buy
20-DMA   112.17 Buy
50-DMA   111.50 Buy
100-DMA   111.01 Buy
200-DMA   109.75 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.748 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.612 Sell

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