AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares appeared tentative on Friday, holding steady after a nine-day losing streak, but sentiment was frail after Wall Street shares crumbled and expectations of market volatility shot up to an eight-month high. Worries about the economic impact of a Sino-U.S. trade war, a spike in U.S. bond yields this week and caution ahead of earnings seasons are all cited as potential reasons behind the selloff, the biggest market rout since February. U.S. stock futures rebounded 0.6 percent in early Asia on Friday, in part helped by media report that the U.S. Treasury Department will not call China a currency manipulator in an upcoming report. Indeed, so far this week Chinese and U.S. shares are among the worst performers in a sign that investors’ worries about the trade war are deepening.
  • The U.S. dollar traded near its lowest level in nearly two weeks against its major peers on Friday as declining U.S. treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street soured sentiment. A weaker than forecast rise in U.S. consumer prices undermined the dollar as traders cut back their wagers on the U.S. Federal Reserve stepping up the pace of its planned rate rises. Fed officials said last month they expected three rate hikes in 2019, and some have said they are open to a rate increase in December, which would be the fourth this year.The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR fell to 3.1724 percent on Friday after hitting a seven-year peak of 3.261 percent on Tuesday. The euro EUR= was the primary beneficiary of broad-based dollar weakness on Friday, hitting a fresh weekly high at 1.6003 on the back of dollar selling and a positive tone in minutes of the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The minutes suggested the ECB was on track to normalize its ultra-loose monetary policy this year despite concerns about slowing growth in Europe. The US dollar continues to show weakness against the Japanese yen and a miss for the CPI figures out of America didn’t help the situation either. It looks as if the ¥112 level underneath should offer support though, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see a bit of a bounce. The recent selloff has been exacerbated by the bloodletting on Wall Street during Tuesday. The British pound continue to grind higher during the trading session on Thursday, reaching above the 1.32 level again. This is a market that continues to grind its way higher, and I think it’s difficult for big moves to occur with all of the uncertainty around the British pound. However, it appears that the “smart money” demands more British pound as they get cheaper.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday slightly reversing two days of declines in the previous sessions driven by sharp falls in equity markets and indications that supply concerns have been overblown, but were still on track for a weekly fall. Wall Street extended its slide into a sixth session and a global equity index fell to a 1-year low on Thursday as investors feared an escalating U.S. trade war with China and risks from a recent climb in interest rates. On the oil front, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, more than double analysts' expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase. The OPEC cut its forecast of global demand growth for oil next year for a third straight month, citing headwinds facing the broader economy from trade disputes and volatile emerging markets. OPEC sees the oil market as well supplied and is wary of creating a glut next year, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers had cut output by 40 percent on Thursday due to Hurricane Michael, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, even as some operators began returning crews to offshore platforms. The cuts represent 680,107 barrels per day of oil production, the bureau said, citing reports from 30 companies. Michael crashed ashore Florida on Wednesday as the third most powerful hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland, leaving seven people least. It has since weakened to a tropical storm.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,224-1,230 1,238 1,246
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 72.00-72.60 73.00 73.90
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1690 1.1730 1.1790
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3290 1.3350 1.3450
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,220 1,214-1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 71.00-70.50 70.10 69.60
EURO/USD 1.1540 1.1460-1.1432 1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 112.00-111.50 111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (12th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1226.23/oz and low of US$1191.18/oz. Gold up by 2.460% at US$1191.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1224-1244 keeping stop loss closing above 1244, targeting 1220-1214-12007 and 1200-1194. Buy above 1214-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1228-1238 and 1244-1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,220
S2     1,214-1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,224-1,230
R2     1,238
R3     1,246

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.596

Buy
20-DMA   1199.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1198.65

Sell
100-DMA   1228.76 Sell
200-DMA   1277.57 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.071 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.957 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.60/oz and low of US$14.24/oz. Silver settled down by 2.032% at US$14.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.978 Buy
20-DMA   14.29 Sell
50-DMA   14.68 Sell
100-DMA   15.45 Sell
200-DMA   16.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.190 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0016 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$72.61/bbl, intraday low of US$70.36/bbl and settled downby 2.39% to close at US$70.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.00-73.90 with stop loss at 73.90; targeting 71.40-70.50 and 70.10-69.60. Buy above 71.40-69.60 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 72.00-72.60 and 73.00-73,90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.00-70.50
S2     70.10
S3     69.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.00-72.60
R2     73.00
R3     73.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.951 Sell
20-DMA   72.46 Buy
50-DMA   69.62 Buy
100-DMA   68.94 Buy
200-DMA   66.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.153 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.856 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1598/EUR, high of US$1.1598/EUR and settled the day up by 0.642% to close at US$1.1591/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1790 targeting 1.1540-1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540
S2     1.1460-1.1432
S3     1.1380

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1690
R2     1.1730
R3     1.1790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.014 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Sell
50-DMA   1.1584 Sell
100-DMA   1.1627 Sell
200-DMA   1.1920 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.273 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3174/GBP, high of US$1.3245/GBP and settled the day up by 0.265% to close at US$1.3225/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2970) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3250-1.3450 with targets at 1.3140-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2890. Buy above 1.3200-1.2890 with targets 1.3250-1.3290 and 1.3350-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3250-1.3290
R2     1.3350
R3     1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.080

Buy
20-DMA   1.3106 Buy
50-DMA   1.2975 Buy
100-DMA   1.3099 Buy
200-DMA   1.3492 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.169 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0003 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.82/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.226% at JPY112.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.56), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-111.00 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.50
S2     111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.008 Buy
20-DMA   112.96 Buy
50-DMA   111.82 Buy
100-DMA   111.24 Buy
200-DMA   109.77 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   5.7477 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.320 Sell

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