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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slipped on Monday as worries over Sino-U.S. trade disputes, a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy and higher U.S. borrowing costs tempered optimism despite a rebound in global equities late last week. Not helping the mood, oil prices jumped and Saudi Arabian shares tumbled on rising diplomatic tensions between Riyadh and the West after the monarchy warned against threats to punish it over disappearance of a journalist critical of its policies. The market shakeout has been blamed on a series of factors, including worries about the impact of a U.S.-China trade war, a spike in U.S. bond yields this week and caution ahead of earnings season. Although selling appeared to have abated on Friday, partly after Chinese trade data showed strong growth in September, many investors remained cautious. Fujito said the trade war is starting to take a toll on growth in China, noting that data released later on Friday showed Chinese auto sales posted the biggest drop in seven years. Over the weekend, China central bank governor Yi Gang said he still sees plenty of room for adjustment in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), as downside risks from trade tensions with the United States remain significant. Also starting to attract wider attention, Saudi Arabia doubled down on pressure from the West on the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and Washington Post columnist, after he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened "severe punishment" if it turns out Khashoggi was killed while many company executives have canceled their plans to attend a Saudi investor conference later this month. Investors suspect the latest development could undermine the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and has the risk of eventually destabilizing the oil-rich kingdom. Higher oil prices could boost inflation around the world and spark rises in U.S. borrowing costs, which are also seen hurting weak borrowers, especially those in emerging markets. Investors were also bracing for a European Union summit meeting from Wednesday. On the other hand, the dollar is seen under pressure against the yen after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday that Washington wants to include a provision to deter currency manipulation in future trade deals, including with Japan. That raised worried among Japanese policy circles that this would give Washington the right to label as currency manipulation any future foreign exchange market interventions by Tokyo to keep sharp yen rises in check.
  • The dollar firmed against the pound and euro on Monday as unsuccessful British efforts to secure a Brexit deal ahead of a key European Union summit reinforced global investors' preference for safe haven currencies. The problem of Britain's land border with Ireland has thwarted a drive to clinch a Brexit deal, as negotiators over the weekend admitted defeat after marathon talks and pressed pause for the coming days. The pound is also under pressure after former foreign minister Boris Johnson's comments in a newspaper column on Sunday that Britain must stand up to bullies in the European Union and press for a "super Canada" deal. Johnson, a key figure of the campaign to leave the EU in 2016 and bookmakers' favorite to replace Prime Minister Theresa May, is the latest critic to redouble efforts to urge her to rethink her plan to leave the union. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday that Washington wants to include a provision to deter currency manipulation in future trade deals, including with Japan, based on the currency chapter in the new deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
  • - Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices. Crude markets were also supported in the wake of data that showed South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country take effect in November. Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent critic of Riyadh and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The kingdom would retaliate against possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case, its state news agency SPA reported on Sunday quoting an official source. Meanwhile, South Korea in September stopped importing Iranian oil for the first time in years. Lingering geopolitical worries, trade concerns and a weaker economic outlook may pave the way for another week of volatile trading, Chen said, adding that Monday's recovery in prices was "fragile". Putting downward pressure on oil prices, the International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog, said in its monthly report that the market looked "adequately supplied for now" and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next. That comes after the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week said the group sees the oil market as well supplied and that it was wary of creating a glut next year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,230 1,238 1,246
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 72.00-72.60 73.00 73.90
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1690 1.1730 1.1790
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3250 1.3290-1.3350
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,214-1,207 1,200 1,194
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 71.00-70.50 70.10 69.60
EURO/USD 1.1540 1.1460-1.1432 1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 111.20 111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (15th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1224.07/oz and low of US$1215.76/oz. Gold down by 0.504% at US$1217.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1224-1244 keeping stop loss closing above 1244, targeting 1220-1214-12007 and 1200-1194. Buy above 1214-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1228-1238 and 1244-1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,214-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,221-1,230
R2     1,238
R3     1,246

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.690

Buy
20-DMA   1199.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1198.65

Sell
100-DMA   1228.76 Sell
200-DMA   1277.57 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.071 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.957 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.50/oz and low of US$14.50/oz. Silver settled up by 0.137% at US$14.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.30-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.978 Buy
20-DMA   14.29 Sell
50-DMA   14.68 Sell
100-DMA   15.45 Sell
200-DMA   16.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.190 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0016 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$71.88/bbl, intraday low of US$70.47/bbl and settled up by 0.635% to close at US$71.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.00-73.90 with stop loss at 73.90; targeting 71.40-70.50 and 70.10-69.60. Buy above 71.40-69.60 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 72.00-72.60 and 73.00-73.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.00-70.50
S2     70.10
S3     69.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.00-72.60
R2     73.00
R3     73.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.951 Sell
20-DMA   72.46 Buy
50-DMA   69.62
100-DMA   68.94 Buy
200-DMA   66.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.153 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.856 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1533/EUR, high of US$1.1609/EUR and settled the day down by 0.181% to close at US$1.1558/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1627), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1790 targeting 1.1540-1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540
S2     1.1460-1.1432
S3     1.1380

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1690
R2     1.1730
R3     1.1790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.014 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Sell
50-DMA   1.1584 Sell
100-DMA   1.1627 Sell
200-DMA   1.1920 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.273 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3145/GBP, high of US$1.3257/GBP and settled the day down by 0.574% to close at US$1.3154/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3450 with targets at 1.3140-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2890. Buy above 1.3200-1.2890 with targets 1.3250-1.3290 and 1.3350-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.393

Buy
20-DMA   1.3110 Buy
50-DMA   1.2978 Buy
100-DMA   1.3097 Buy
200-DMA   1.3490 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.169 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0003 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.49/USD and settled the day up by 0.071% at JPY112.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-111.00 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.20
S2     111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.008 Buy
20-DMA   112.96 Buy
50-DMA   111.82 Buy
100-DMA   111.24 Buy
200-DMA   109.77 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   5.7477 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.320 Sell

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