AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were capped and the dollar rose to a one week-high in early Thursday trade after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed broad agreement among board members on the need to raise borrowing costs further. The specter of rising U.S. dollar yields, which along with global trade tensions were at the center of last week’s global equities rout, kept riskier appetite in check in Asia. Data out earlier in the day showed exports from the world’s third-biggest economy dropped for the first time since late 2016, hit by declines in shipments to the United States and China. The U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields rose to its highest levels in a week on Wednesday. The minutes from the Fed’s Septa 25-26 meeting showed every Fed policymaker backed raising interest rates last month and also generally agreed borrowing costs were set to rise further, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s view that the tightenings have already gone too far. Major currencies have shown limited reaction after the U.S. government late on Wednesday refrained from naming China or any other trading partner as a currency manipulator, as it leans on import tariffs to try to cut a trade deficit with China, soothing investor sentiment in Asia. In Europe, the European Council meeting kicked off on Wednesday with a roundtable dinner, with British Prime Minister Theresa May’s address ahead of it, though expectations that anything substantial will come out of it have already been fading.
  • The dollar traded stronger versus its major peers on Thursday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting affirmed expectations that the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates this year. Every Fed policymaker backed raising interest rates last month and also generally agreed borrowing costs were set to rise further. The British pound lost 0.12 percent versus the dollar on Thursday to $1.3096, weakening after European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's comments on Wednesday that more time was needed to secure an exit deal for Britain. Elsewhere, in a document keenly awaited by markets, the U.S. Treasury Department's semi-annual currency report, released on Wednesday, did not name China or any other trading partner as a currency manipulator.
  • Wall Street’s major indexes edged lower after a choppy session on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve showed broad agreement on the need to raise borrowing costs further, cementing investor concerns that had helped cause a major sell-off the week before. In defiance of sharp criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, policymakers showed agreement on the September hike and general anticipation that further gradual increases would be consistent with the economic expansion, labor market strength, and firm inflation that most forecast.
  • Oil prices edged up on Thursday, steadying after a big drop overnight due to a jump in U.S. crude stockpiles and supported by ongoing tensions over the death of a prominent Saudi journalist. U.S. crude stocks rose 6.5 million barrels last week, the fourth straight weekly build, almost triple what analysts had forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Inventories rose sharply even as U.S. crude production slipped 300,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million bpd last week due to the effects of offshore facilities closing temporarily for Hurricane Michael. U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership over the disappearance of prominent Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi, suggesting sanctions could be possible. Western pressure mounted on Riyadh to provide answers, but comments by President Donald Trump suggested the White House may not take additional action against the Saudis, particularly after Saudi Arabia said it will conduct an investigation. Investors worry Saudi Arabia could use oil supply to retaliate against critics. But Saudi Arabia has assured OPEC that it is "committed, capable and willing" to ensure there will be no shortage in the oil market, OPEC's secretary-general said on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will struggle to resume oil production from jointly operated fields that produced some 500,000 barrels per day any time soon due to operational differences and souring political ties, sources said on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,246 1,254
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 70.10-70.50 71.20 72.00-72.60
EURO/USD 1.1540 1.1610-1.1690 1.1730
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3200 1.3250 1.3290-1.3350
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,214-1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 69.60-69.05 68.20 67.70-67.15
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1432 1.1380 1.1300
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3060 1. 2990-1.2950
USD/JPY 112.10-111.50 111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (18th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1229.41/oz and low of US$1220.53/oz. Gold down by 0.212% at US$121.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1233-1254 keeping stop loss closing above 1254, targeting 1221-1214-12007 and 1200-1194. Buy above 1214-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1228-1238 and 1244-1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221
S2     1,214-1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,246
R3     1,254

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.586

Buy
20-DMA   1201.73 Sell
50-DMA  

1199.26

Sell
100-DMA   1227.29 Sell
200-DMA   1276.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.046 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.823 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.71/oz and low of US$14.58/oz. Silver settled down by 0.136% at US$14.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.30-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.978 Buy
20-DMA   14.47 Sell
50-DMA   14.50 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Sell
200-DMA   15.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.939 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0016 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.27/bbl, intraday low of US$69.35/bbl and settled down by 2.915% to close at US$69.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.10-72.60 with stop loss at 72.60; targeting 69.60-69.05 and 68.20-67.70-67.15. Buy above 69.60-67.15 with risk daily closing below 69.15 and targeting 70.10-70.50-71.20 and 72.00-72.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.60-69.05
S2     68.20
S3     67.70-67.15

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.10-70.50
R2     71.20
R3     72.00-72.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.759 Sell
20-DMA   72.74 Buy
50-DMA   69.76 Buy
100-DMA   69.04 Buy
200-DMA   67.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.084 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.568 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1579/EUR, high of US$1.1579/EUR and settled the day down by 0.630% to close at US$1.1499/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1627), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Buy above 1.1460-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300, targeting 1.1540-1.1610-1.1690 and 1.1760-1.1800. Sell below 1.1540-1.1730 targeting 1.1460-1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460-1.1432
S2     1.1380
S3     1.1300

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1540
R2     1.1610-1.1690
R3     1.1730

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.477 Buy
20-DMA   1.1583 Sell
50-DMA   1.1581 Sell
100-DMA   1.1623 Sell
200-DMA   1.1911 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.946 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.398/GBP, high of US$1.3191/GBP and settled the day down by 0.630% to close at US$1.3113/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3450 with targets at 1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2890. Buy above 1.3150-1.2890 with targets 1.3150-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100
S2     1.3060
S3     1. 2990-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.491

Buy
20-DMA   1.3102 Buy
50-DMA   1.2997 Buy
100-DMA   1.3091 Buy
200-DMA   1.3482 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.687 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0029 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.66/USD and settled the day up by 0.338% at JPY112.62/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-111.00 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10-111.50
S2     111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.124 Buy
20-DMA   112.97 Buy
50-DMA   111.92 Buy
100-DMA   111.40 Buy
200-DMA   109.71 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   66.850 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.065 Sell

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