AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks edged lower on Wednesday as concerns, ranging from worries about U.S. corporate earnings to Middle East tensions, weighed on sentiment while crude oil approached two-month lows after Saudi Arabia flagged possible supply increases. Global stocks have suffered this week on worries about U.S. earnings, Italian government finances, U.S. trade tensions and mounting pressure on Saudi Arabia over the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia's diplomatic standing looked increasingly precarious as Turkey dismissed the kingdom's efforts to blame Khashoggi's death on rogue operatives while U.S. President Donald Trump said Riyadh staged the "worst cover-up ever. Equity losses in the region were modest; however, after a late round of buying helped Wall Street indexes pare most of their earlier panic-driven losses. Sterling briefly gained half a percent against the dollar on Tuesday after a media report that the European Union could offer British Prime Minister Theresa May a UK-wide customs union to clinch a Brexit deal. The pound's strength was fleeting, however, a sign the market remains unconvinced May can successfully sell any deal to her Conservative party colleagues and get it through parliament. The British Pound remained in focus as British Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to address her Conservative Party lawmakers later today. As if the drawn-out Brexit uncertainty wasn’t enough, the pound is now at risk from the battle over the U.K.’s leadership. Investors are watching for signs whether a much-anticipated challenge to U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will actually materialize, and the outcome of a meeting of Conservative Party backbenchers Wednesday could be crucial. Long-time sterling bull Nomura International Plc switched to a neutral stance Monday, recommending a flat position amid reports of mounting opposition to May from within her own party.
  • The dollar edged down on Wednesday while the Japanese yen also slipped as U.S. stocks fell on disappointing corporate results. Higher steel prices and tariffs resulted in increased material costs for the company, according to a statement. Energy producers also slumped more than 1% as oil prices remained at a five-week low. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he is “very unhappy with the Fed” for endangering the U.S. economy by raising rates. The Fed hiked interest rates three times this year after data showed U.S. economy was healthier than expected. Markets widely expected the central bank to raise rates again before year-end. Falling stock prices, uncertainty around global trade and other possible “headwinds” are not enough yet to throw the U.S. economy off course or force the Fed to alter its intent for continued gradual rate increases, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday. Speaking as equity markets dropped sharply over global concerns and weak corporate earnings, Bostic said he was now “more comfortable” with raising rates a fourth time this year, a prospect he had remained noncommittal about until now. Bostic said the central bank can still raise rates “a few” more times until it reaches a level that is neither encouraging nor discouraging investment and spending. Bostic said he estimated neutral to be between 2.75% to 3%, allowing two or three more rate increases from the current federal funds rate range of between 2 and 2.25%. GDP grew at a 4.2% pace in the second quarter. Combined with third-quarter growth of around 3.5%, Bostic said it “may suggest that the economy is shifting into a higher gear.” Throughout the current near decade-long expansion, growth has averaged 2.3%.
  • Oil prices on Wednesday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that despite expected supply disruptions from U.S. sanctions against Iran that kick in from Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia would step up to “meet any demand that materializes to ensure customers are satisfied”. Despite this, analysts said markets remained tight because of the upcoming sanctions. In China, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, the Bank of Kunlun is set to stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic next month, appearing to bow to U.S. pressure. Kunlun is controlled by the financial arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp and is the main official channel for money flows between China and Iran. With financial ties between the two countries effectively severed from November, Chinese oil firms will need to find alternatives to Iran’s crude. China took in 800K bpd from Iran in August, the peak for this year, according to Refinitiv Eikon trade data. While oil supply is tightening, the demand outlook for 2019 is darkening because of concerns of a slowing economy next year. China’s state planner said on Wednesday it would step up financial support for regions most hit by the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing during which both sides have slapped import tariffs on hundreds of goods.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,246 1,254
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 67.15-67.70 68.10 68.50-69.05
EURO/USD 1.1490-1.1540 1.1610 1.1690-1.1750
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.3060 1.3100 1.3150-1.3200
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00114.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,214-1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 66.50-65.70 65.10 64.50
EURO/USD 1.1460 1.1430-1.1380 1.1320
GBP/USD 1.2950-1.2900 1.2840 1.2790
USD/JPY 112.10-111. 50 111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (24th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1239.69/oz and low of US$1221.56/oz. Gold up by 0.667% at US$1229.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1233-1254 keeping stop loss closing above 1254, targeting 1221-1214-12007 and 1200-1194. Buy above 1214-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1228-1238 and 1244-1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221
S2     1,214-1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,246
R3     1,254

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.586

Buy
20-DMA   1201.73 Sell
50-DMA  

1199.26

Sell
100-DMA   1227.29 Sell
200-DMA   1276.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.046 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.823 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.79/oz and low of US$14.50/oz. Silver settled up by 1.308% at US$14.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.30-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.093 Buy
20-DMA   14.50 Sell
50-DMA   14.47 Sell
100-DMA   15.22 Sell
200-DMA   15.91 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.799 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.63/bbl, intraday low of US$65.75/bbl and settled down by 4.950% to close at US$66.05/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.60-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.05-68.60-68.20 and 67.70-67.15. Buy above 69.05-67.15 with risk daily closing below 69.15 and targeting 69.60-70.10-70.50 and 71.20-72.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-65.70
S2     65.10
S3     64.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.15-67.70
R2     68.10
R3     68.50-69.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.0551 Sell
20-DMA   71.88 Buy
50-DMA   70.04 Buy
100-DMA   69.19 Buy
200-DMA   67.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.420 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.105 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1438/EUR, high of US$1.1533/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0436% to close at US$1.1468/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1460-1.1280 with risk below 1.1280, targeting 1.1540-1.1610 and 1.1690-1.1760. Sell below 1.1540-1.1750 targeting 1.1490-1.1430-1.1380 and 1.1320-1.1280 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460
S2     1.1430-1.1380
S3     1.1320

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1490-1.1540
R2     1.1610
R3     1.1690-1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.980 Buy
20-DMA   1.1527 Sell
50-DMA   1.1588 Sell
100-DMA   1.1613 Sell
200-DMA   1.1896 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.012 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2936/GBP, high of US$1.3043/GBP and settled the day up by 0.177% to close at US$1.2980/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3290 with targets at 1.2950-1.2920 and 1.2870-1.2790. Buy above 1.2950-1.2870 with targets 1.3060-1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3250 with stop loss closing below 1.2870.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950-1.2900
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3000-1.3060
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3150-1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.829

Buy
20-DMA   1.3072 Buy
50-DMA   1.3017 Buy
100-DMA   1.3076 Buy
200-DMA   1.3466 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.776 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.319% at JPY112.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-110.70 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10-111. 50
S2     111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00114.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.433 Buy
20-DMA   112.95 Buy
50-DMA   111.95 Buy
100-DMA   111.43 Buy
200-DMA   109.77 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   76.850 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.033 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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