AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The Japanese yen strengthened versus the U.S. dollar on Friday as appetite for riskier assets remained suppressed while the euro stayed near two-month lows after the European Central Bank failed to convince markets that rates would rise. U.S. dollar lost 0.2 percent to be 112.14 versus the Japanese yen, a safe haven currency. Analysts see many persisting risks for markets, including trade tensions, Italy's budget woes, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about U.S. corporate earnings. The euro traded marginally lower at $1.1365 on Friday. It hit a two-month low of $1.1353 the previous session, following European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's failure to convince traders the ECB could pursue monetary tightening after next summer as political and economic uncertainties grow in the monetary union. The ECB reaffirmed on Thursday that its 2.6 trillion euro ($2.97 trillion) asset purchase program would end this year and that interest rates could rise after next summer. The policy guidance has been consistent since June, even though the economic outlook has darkened while political turmoil in Italy looms over the currency bloc. Analysts said markets remain skeptical about the ECB rates given inflation remains tepid. The dollar index (DXY) traded flat at 96.61 on Friday, after hitting a two-month high on Thursday. The gains in the dollar index were largely due to the losses in the euro, which has a 57.6 percent weighting in the index. Investors will also be awaiting third-quarter U.S. GDP data due on Friday for dollar cues. If the reading is lower than expectations, investors will worry about economic growth momentum and whether that could possibly lead to a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening pat. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in December. Sterling traded marginally higher at $1.2822 after it hit a six-week low of $1.280 on Thursday following Draghi's comments that the private sector needed to prepare for the possibility that Britain could exit the European Union with no deal on future relations.
  • The recent cratering of stock markets is nowhere near severe enough to rattle confidence and significantly hurt U.S. business and consumer spending, a Fed official said on Thursday, in the latest unruffled message from the U.S. central bank. In a speech, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, reinforced the U.S. central bank’s steady-as-she-goes expectation to keep gradually raising interest rates in the face of a nearly month-long fall in major U.S. equity indexes, which has been driven by worries over the effects of U.S. tariffs and a slowdown in China. He has also reflected concerns over corporate earnings and higher borrowing costs, investors say. The Fed raised rates last month to above 2 percent, and expects to hike again in December amid what Mester called a “very strong” labor market. Overall, she said, the economy is doing “very well,” with inflation at the Fed’s 2 percent goal and business and consumer spending expected to remain robust, with no strong pullback in a cooling housing market. With unemployment at 3.7 percent, its lowest rate since the 1960s, Mester, like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, framed monetary policy as a balance between risks of overheating the economy and unnecessarily choking off its nearly record-long expansion.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday as China ordered at least two state-owned oil companies to stop buying Iranian oil. Citing people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reported that China National Petroleum Corp and Sinopec have been told to avoid buying Iranian oil, although the freeze on imports are expected to be only temporary, the people added. U.S. sanctions against Iran is scheduled to take effect from Nov. 4 and earlier reports suggested that Washington is seeking to eventually reduce Iran’s exports sales to zero and isolate the Islamic Republic. In other news, oil prices received some support earlier in the day after OPEC signaled on Thursday it may have to return to production cuts as global inventories begin climbing, a move that may further sour its relations with U.S. President Donald Trump Saudi OPEC governor Adeeb Al-Aama told Reuters the oil market could be shifting towards oversupply due to a typical rise in inventories and slowing in demand in the fourth quarter. Aama’s stance suggested a rethink in Saudi production strategy after Falih said earlier this week that the kingdom will pump as much crude as necessary to ensure minimum disruption to global supplies from U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,238-1,246 1,254 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 67.10-67.70 68.10 68.50-69.05
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1490 1.1540 1.1610-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2900 1.2950 1.3000-1.3060
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,230 1,221 1,214-1,207
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 66.10-65.70 65.10 64.50
EURO/USD 1.1340 1.1300 1.2960-1.2900
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2750 1.2700 1.2660
USD/JPY 112.10-111.50 111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (26th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thusday made its intraday high of US$1239.04/oz and low of US$1228.03/oz. Gold down by 0.162% at US$1231.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1238-1254 keeping stop loss closing above 1254, targeting 1230-1221-1214 and 1207-1200. Buy above 1230-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1238-1244 and 1250-1256.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,230
S2     1,221
S3     1,214-1,207
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,238-1,246
R2     1,254
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.504

Buy
20-DMA   1213.83 Sell
50-DMA  

1204.53

Sell
100-DMA   1221.76 Sell
200-DMA   1272.62 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   63.027 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   8.449 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.76/oz and low of US$14.58/oz. Silver settled down by 0.204% at US$14.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.35-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.301 Buy
20-DMA   14.56 Sell
50-DMA   14.46 Sell
100-DMA   15.12 Sell
200-DMA   15.85 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.867 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.044 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$67.65/bbl, intraday low of US$66.03/bbl and settled up by 0.828% to close at US$66.92/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.10-69.60 with stop loss at 69.60; targeting 66.10-65.70 and 65.10-64.50. Buy above 66.10-64.50 with risk daily closing below 64.50 and targeting 67.10-67.70-68.10 and 69.00-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.10-65.70
S2     65.10
S3     64.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.10-67.70
R2     68.10
R3     68.50-69.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.330 Sell
20-DMA   71.27 Buy
50-DMA   70.11 Buy
100-DMA   69.21 Buy
200-DMA   67.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.330 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1145 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1355/EUR, high of US$1.1431/EUR and settled the day down by 0.149% to close at US$1.1373/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1430-1.1290 with risk below 1.1290, targeting 1.1430-1.1490-1.1540 and 1.1610-1.1690. Sell below 1.1430-1.1690 targeting 1.1380-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.2960-1.2900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1340
S2     1.1300
S3     1.2960-1.2900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430-1.1490
R2     1.1540
R3     1.1610-1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.834 Buy
20-DMA   1.1497 Sell
50-DMA   1.1585 Sell
100-DMA   1.1604 Sell
200-DMA   1.1872 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.510 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0055 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2769/GBP, high of US$1.2918/GBP and settled the day down by 0.504% to close at US$1.2813/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3100 with targets at 1.2870-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2750-1.2700. Buy above 1.2840-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2950-1.3000 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2870.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790-1.2750
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2840-1.2900
R2     1.2950
R3     1.3000-1.3060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.548

Buy
20-DMA   1.3043 Buy
50-DMA   1.3018 Buy
100-DMA   1.3063 Buy
200-DMA   1.3455 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.3660 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0046 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY112.08/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.73/USD and settled the day down by 0.115% at JPY112.23/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-110.70 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10-111.50
S2     111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.433 Buy
20-DMA   112.95 Buy
50-DMA   111.95 Buy
100-DMA   111.43 Buy
200-DMA   109.77 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   76.850 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.033 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING