AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asia shares recouped early losses and crept higher on Tuesday as China made a fresh attempt to stabilize its stock markets, but the gains looked fragile amid fears of a sharp escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. Trump had raised the possibility of such a move previously, but had not indicated a timeframe. China's securities regulator said it would encourage share buybacks and mergers and acquisitions by listed firms, and would enhance market liquidity, in the latest attempt to put a floor under the country's skidding equity markets. Major state-owned Chinese banks were seen swapping yuan for dollars in forwards on Tuesday, but there was no immediate evidence of dollar selling in the spot market as the currency neared a key support level, three traders said The dollar index against a basket of six major peers inched higher and was just below its 10-week high it hit on Friday. The index gained on a decline in the euro after news German Chancellor Angela Merkel would not seek re-election as head of her CDU party. Merkel said she would not seek re-election as party chairwoman, heralding the end of a 13-year era in which she has dominated European politics. The dollar firmed against its rivals on Tuesday, supported by a safe haven bid as rising trade tensions and fears of a slowdown in global economic growth weighed on investors' appetite for risk assets.
  • The Japanese yen, also seen as a refuge during times of heightened investor concerns, traded in a narrow range ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy announcement due on Wednesday. Investors shunned riskier assets and moved to buy the greenback after Bloomberg reported that Washington is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by early December if talks next month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war. Trump and his Chinese counterpart are due to meet on the sidelines of the Group of 20 leaders summit in Argentina at the end of November. U.S. equities turned sharply lower on Monday, reversing a positive start and led by declines in technology stocks. Investors are concerned that corporate earnings may peak this quarter as borrowing costs rise with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, followed by another two possible hikes in 2019. The Japanese yen traded flat in Asian trade on Tuesday, having weakened versus the dollar on Monday. Yen traders will also be focussing on the central bank's monetary policy meeting due Wednesday. The euro has also been weighed by the ongoing standoff between Brussels and Rome over Italy's free spending budget that would breach the European Union's fiscal rules.
  • The Chinese yuan dipped on Tuesday and traded near two-year lows following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering imposing tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by December. The fall in the Chinese currency came after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is preparing to impose tariffs on the remaining $257 billion of Chinese imports if talks in November between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping do not go well. The two leaders are due to meet during the Group of 20 leaders summit in Argentina at the end of November. The yuan was under pressure in recent months and plunged 9% since April after the People’s Bank of China cut its reserve-ratio requirement for the fourth time this year.
  • Brent oil prices dipped on Tuesday, weighed down by ongoing weakness in global stock markets and by signs of rising global supply despite looming sanctions on Iran's crude exports. Overall, however, oil has been caught up in broad financial market slumps this month, with stocks falling again on Monday after a report Washington was planning an additional $257 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods if upcoming talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping fail to end a trade war between the world's two largest economies. High oil prices are hurting consumers and could dent demand, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. Oil was also being weighed down by signs of rising supply from top producers. Russia has also indicated that it will provide enough oil to meet demand once U.S. sanctions hit Iran from next week. In a sign that oil supply remains ample despite the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran's petroleum exports, crude output from the world's top 3 producers, Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia, reached 33 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in September, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. That's an increase of 10 million bpd since the start of the decade and means that these three producers alone now meet a third of global crude demand. Hedge fund managers continued to liquidate former bullish positions in oil last week, with signs of short-selling appearing for the first time in over a year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th October 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230 1,238-1,246 1,254
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 67.70 68.10 68.50-69.05
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1490 1.1540 1.1610-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2900 1.2950 1.3000-1.3060
USD/JPY 113.00 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th October 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,214-1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 67.10 66.10-65.70 65.10
EURO/USD 1.1340 1.1300 1.2960-1.2900
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2750 1.2700 1.2660
USD/JPY 112.10 111.50-111.20 110.70

Intra-Day Strategy (30th October 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1235.35/oz and low of US$1224.23/oz. Gold down by 0.407% at US$1229.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1254 keeping stop loss closing above 1254, targeting 1221-1214 and 1207-1200. Buy above 1230-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1238-1244 and 1250-1256.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221
S2     1,214-1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230
R2     1,238-1,246
R3     1,254

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.309

Buy
20-DMA   1217.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1205.97

Sell
100-DMA   1220.39 Sell
200-DMA   1271.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   57.554 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   7.949 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.74/oz and low of US$14.40/oz. Silver settled down by 1.702% at US$14.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.35-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.718 Buy
20-DMA   14.56 Sell
50-DMA   14.45 Sell
100-DMA   15.07 Sell
200-DMA   15.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.104 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.044 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$67.94/bbl, intraday low of US$66.35/bbl and settled down by 0.979% to close at US$66.69/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.10-69.60 with stop loss at 69.60; targeting 66.10-65.70 and 65.10-64.50. Buy above 66.10-64.50 with risk daily closing below 64.50 and targeting 67.10-67.70-68.10 and 69.00-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.10
S2     66.10-65.70
S3     65.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.70
R2     68.10
R3     68.50-69.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.330 Sell
20-DMA   71.27 Buy
50-DMA   70.11 Buy
100-DMA   69.21 Buy
200-DMA   67.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.330 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1145 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1359/EUR, high of US$1.1415/EUR and settled the day down by 0.228% to close at US$1.1371/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1340-1.1290 with risk below 1.1290, targeting 1.1430-1.1490-1.1540 and 1.1610-1.1690. Sell below 1.1430-1.1690 targeting 1.1380-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.2960-1.2900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1340
S2     1.1300
S3     1.2960-1.2900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430-1.1490
R2     1.1540
R3     1.1610-1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.645 Buy
20-DMA   1.1481 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1597 Sell
200-DMA   1.1878 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.396 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2790/GBP, high of US$1.2852/GBP and settled the day down by 0.636% to close at US$1.2796/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3100 with targets at 1.2870-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2750-1.2700. Buy above 1.2840-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2950-1.3000 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2870.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790-1.2750
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2840-1.2900
R2     1.2950
R3     1.3000-1.3060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.548

Buy
20-DMA   1.3043 Buy
50-DMA   1.3018 Buy
100-DMA   1.3063 Buy
200-DMA   1.3455 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.3660 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0046 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.55/USD and settled the day up by 0.447% at JPY112.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-110.70 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10
S2     111.50-111.20
S3     110.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.644 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Sell
50-DMA   112.20 Sell
100-DMA   111.60 Buy
200-DMA   109.83 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   65.228 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.023 Sell

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