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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Thursday as bruised investor sentiment got some relief from another robust Wall Street session, while the pound rallied on a report Britain has secured a deal that would give its financial services firms continued access to European markets after Brexit. The index had fallen 10.2 percent in October, it worst monthly performance since August 2015, as factors ranging from Sino-U.S. trade tensions to worries about global economic growth, higher U.S. interest rates and company earnings spurred volatility in global markets. There were tentative signs of the gloom slowly beginning to lift, led by a rebound in beaten-down U.S. shares. The pound surged 0.65 percent to $1.2850 after the Times reported that British Prime Minister Theresa May had sealed a deal with Brussels that would give British financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. The bounce lifted the pound - dented recently on worries over whether Britain could secure an orderly exit from the European Union - further away from a 2-1/2-month low struck on Tuesday. The greenback has recently enjoyed a boost from robust economic reports, including data last week which showed the U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter.
  • The British pound rose on Thursday on reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa has struck a deal with the European Union on financial services. Citing government sources, the Times reported on Thursday that May and the European Union reached an agreement on a tentative deal that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday that Beijing should take steps to counter recent changing economic situation as downward pressure is increasing. His comments came after data on Wednesday showed China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in October. The British pound jumped on Thursday on a report that Prime Minister Theresa May has struck a deal with Brussels that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. Economists polled by Reuters expect the nine members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to vote unanimously to keep rates on hold this month, and on average do not see a further rate rise until May. The greenback had got a lift overnight after the ADP national employment report showed that U.S. private sector payrolls increased by the most in eight months in October, confirming that the economy continues to grow at a relatively robust pace. That reinforced expectations for continued rate increases by the Federal Reserve, with a 25-basis-point hike seen in December and potentially two more in 2019. Although monetary divergence between the Fed and BOJ gives the dollar the upper hand versus the yen in the medium term, some analysts believe the yen may actually strengthen in coming months.
  • The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it wants to ease regulations for U.S. lenders with less than $700 billion in assets, a way to lessen the burden on big commercial lenders that do not have volatile Wall Street businesses. The proposal stems from a law Congress passed in May that ordered the Fed to reduce regulatory burdens on community and regional lenders. The proposal also gives the Fed flexibility to impose stricter rules on banks with less than $700 bn in assets if they engage in higher levels of risky activity. The banking industry expressed disappointment. The proposal falls short and fails to address underlying issues with bank regulations, the Bank Policy Institute said. “It does not do enough to tailor regulations based on banks’ risk profiles,” said Greg Baer, who heads the group. The proposal was also met with criticism from advocates for stricter rules on Wall Street. Although the proposal did not address U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks, the Fed said it intends to propose a separate rule for them “in the near future.” It is also working with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on changes to a requirement that big banks create plans for dismantlement in case of failure, known as “living wills.”
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses in previous sessions, amid signs of rising supply and growing concerns that demand might weaken on the prospect of a global economic slowdown. Thursday's drops came after U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude oil inventories climbed for a sixth straight week. Still, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) on Thursday reiterated a year-end forecast for Brent prices of $80 barrel. The bank said 2018 oil demand growth, though down slightly, remains above consensus expectations, and said Chinese demand continues to show resilience despite concerns over the world's second-biggest economy. Meanwhile a Reuters survey found the OPEC boosted oil production in October to its highest since 2016, as higher output led by the United Arab Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to U.S. sanctions, set to start on Nov. 4. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday in a presidential memorandum that he had determined there was sufficient supply of petroleum and petroleum products from nations other than Iran to permit a reduction in purchases from that country. China delivered disappointing PMI data, with its manufacturing sector in October expanding at its weakest pace in over two years.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,230 1,238-1,246
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 65.10-65.70 66.30 67.10-67.70
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1490 1.1610 1.1690-1.1750
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2900 1.2950 1.3000-1.3060
USD/JPY 113.00-113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,214-1,207 1,200 1,189
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 64.30-63.80 63.30 62.70-62.05
EURO/USD 1.1300 1.1220 1.1160-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2750 1.2700 1.2660
USD/JPY 112.10 111.50-111.20 110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (1st November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1223.21/oz and low of US$1211.91/oz. Gold down by 0.700% at US$1214.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1254 keeping stop loss closing above 1254, targeting 1221-1214 and 1207-1200. Buy above 1230-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1238-1244 and 1250-1256.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,214-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,189
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,221
R2     1,230
R3     1,238-1,246

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.309

Buy
20-DMA   1217.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1205.97

Sell
100-DMA   1220.39 Sell
200-DMA   1271.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   57.554 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   7.949 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.63/oz and low of US$14.23/oz. Silver settled down by 1.590% at US$14.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.35-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.718 Buy
20-DMA   14.56 Sell
50-DMA   14.45 Sell
100-DMA   15.07 Sell
200-DMA   15.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.104 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.044 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$67.05/bbl, intraday low of US$64.84/bbl and settled down by 2.215% to close at US$64.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.10-68.00 with stop loss at 68.00; targeting 64.30-63.80-63.30 and 62.70-62.05. Buy above 64.30-62.05 with risk daily closing below 62.05 and targeting 65.10-65.70-66.30 and 67.10-67.70-68.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.30-63.80
S2     63.30
S3     62.70-62.05

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.10-65.70
R2     66.30
R3     67.10-67.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.330 Sell
20-DMA   71.27 Buy
50-DMA   70.11 Buy
100-DMA   69.21 Buy
200-DMA   67.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.330 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1145 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1301/EUR, high of US$1.1359/EUR and settled the day down by 0.255% to close at US$1.1313/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1430-1.1490-1.1540 and 1.1610-1.1690. Sell below 1.1430-1.1690 targeting 1.1380-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.2960-1.2900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300
S2     1.1220
S3     1.1160-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430-1.1490
R2     1.1610
R3     1.1690-1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.430 Buy
20-DMA   1.1462 Sell
50-DMA   1.1569 Sell
100-DMA   1.1589 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.611 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2699/GBP, high of US$1.2812/GBP and settled the day up by 0.487% to close at US$1.2768/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3100 with targets at 1.2870-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2750-1.2700. Buy above 1.2840-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2950-1.3000 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2870.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790-1.2750
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2840-1.2900
R2     1.2950
R3     1.3000-1.3060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.548

Buy
20-DMA   1.3043 Buy
50-DMA   1.3018 Buy
100-DMA   1.3063 Buy
200-DMA   1.3455 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.3660 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0046 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.37/USD and settled the day down by 0.141% at JPY112.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 112.00-110.70 with targets of 112.50-113.00-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10
S2     111.50-111.20
S3     110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.644 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Sell
50-DMA   112.20 Sell
100-DMA   111.60 Buy
200-DMA   109.83 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   65.228 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.023 Sell

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