AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose to a one-month peak on Thursday as investors, relieved to have moved past the U.S. midterm elections without any major political surprises, drove a Wall Street rally, while the dollar bounced and pulled away from 2-1/2-week lows. Wall Street’s main indexes rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday, led by the technology and healthcare sectors as the market breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats wrested control of the House of Representatives and Republicans retained the Senate. While a divided Congress will make it harder for President Donald Trump to push through new legislation, such as additional tax cuts, investors do not expect a reversal of recently enacted tax cuts and deregulation. That low for the greenback was driven by a knee-jerk reaction to the U.S. midterm election results, with a divided Congress seen dulling Trump’s fiscal stimulus drive. Some focus was also on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy due later on Thursday. The Fed, however, is not expected to hike interest rates until its next gathering in December and analysts expected this meeting to have limited market impact. The central bank has tightened monetary policy three times in 2018, with the latest rate hike coming in September.
  • The U.S. dollar inched up on Thursday morning in Asia as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve latest policy decision later in the day. The markets are not expecting a change in interest rates. The central bank has hiked rates three times this year on the back of strong economic data. The Fed has signalled a rate rise in December and two more hikes by mid-2019. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar as the USD/CNY pair rose 0.18% to 6.9334. Chinese Customs data out on Thursday showed that China’s exports in October jumped 15.6% year-on-year, a hike from September's 14.5% increase. Reuters had earlier forecasted a slowdown to 11% growth. Growth in imports for October quickened to 21.4% from 14.3% in September, beating analysts' forecast for a slight cooling to 14%.The U.S. dollar inched up on Thursday morning in Asia as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve latest policy decision later in the day. The markets are not expecting a change in interest rates. The central bank has hiked rates three times this year on the back of strong economic data. The Fed has signalled a rate rise in December and two more hikes by mid-2019. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar as the USD/CNY pair rose 0.18% to 6.9334. Chinese Customs data out on Thursday showed that China’s exports in October jumped 15.6% year-on-year, a hike from September's 14.5% increase. Reuters had earlier forecasted a slowdown to 11% growth. Growth in imports for October quickened to 21.4% from 14.3% in September, beating analysts' forecast for a slight cooling to 14%.
  • Oil prices were stable on Friday, pressured as the United States became the world's top crude producer after its output hit all-time highs, but supported as China remained on track to register another year of record imports. Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $72 a barrel at 0554 GMT, down 7 cents from their last close. Weighing on prices was record U.S. crude production, which hit 11.6 mn bpd in the week ending Nov. 2, according to EIA data released on Wednesday. That's a threefold increase from the U.S. low reached a decade ago, and a 22.2 percent rise just this year. It makes the United States the world's biggest producer of crude. More U.S. oil will likely come. The EIA expects output to break through 12 million bpd by mid-2019, largely thanks to a surge in shale oil production. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 2, to 431.79 million barrels, the EIA said. Production has not just risen in the United States, but also in many other countries, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Brazil, stoking producer concerns of a return of oversupply that depressed oil prices between 2014 and 2017. With output overall rising, supply is ample despite the Iran sanctions now in place, prompting rumblings within the Middle East dominated OPEC that renewed supply cuts may be needed next year to prevent a glut. China's October crude imports surged 32 percent from a year earlier to 40.80 mn tons, or 9.61 mn bpd, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Thursday, climbing from 9.05 mn bpd in September. The previous daily record of 9.6 million bpd was touched in April 2018. Imports rose 8.1 percent for the first 10 months of the year from the same period last year to 377.16 mn tons, or 9.06 mn bpd, on track for another record year of shipments.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,246 1,253-1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 62.05-62.70 63.30 63.80-64.30
EURO/USD 1.1490 1.1540 1.1610-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3200 1.3250 1.3300
USD/JPY 113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,214 1,207-1,200
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 61.50-61.00 60.50 59.90
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1340 1.1300 1.1260
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.3000 1.2950-1.2900
USD/JPY 113.00 112.10 111.50-111.20

Intra-Day Strategy (8th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1236.42/oz and low of US$1236.42/oz. Gold down by 0.0285% at US$1226.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1238-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1266, targeting 1230-1221-1214 and 1207-1200. Buy above 1230-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1238-1244 and 1250-1256.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221
S2     1,214
S3     1,207-1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,246
R3     1,253-1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.758

Buy
20-DMA   1226.68 Sell
50-DMA  

1209.57

Sell
100-DMA   1216.65 Sell
200-DMA   1267.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.46/oz and low of US$14.46/oz. Silver settled up by 0.344% at US$14.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.35-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.821 Buy
20-DMA   14.58 Sell
50-DMA   14.43 Sell
100-DMA   14.93 Sell
200-DMA   15.73 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.821 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.013 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$63.28/bbl, intraday low of US$61.30/bbl and settled down by 0.210% to close at US$61.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.30-66.30 with stop loss at 66.30; targeting 62.70-62.05 and 61.50-61.00. Buy above 62.70-61.50 with risk daily closing below 61.50 and targeting 63.30-63.80-64.30 and 65.10-65.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.50-61.00
S2     60.50
S3     59.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.05-62.70
R2     63.30
R3     63.80-64.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.9365 Sell
20-DMA   66.59 Buy
50-DMA   69.34 Buy
100-DMA   69.04 Buy
200-DMA   67.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.244 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.393 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1393/EUR, high of US$1.1499/EUR and settled the day down by 0.008% to close at US$1.1424/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1430-1.1290 with risk below 1.1290, targeting 1.1430-1.1490-1.1540 and 1.1610-1.1690. Sell below 1.1490-1.1690 targeting 1.1380-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.2960-1.2900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1430-1.1340
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1490
R2     1.1540
R3     1.1610-1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.169 Buy
20-DMA   1.1438 Sell
50-DMA   1.1545 Sell
100-DMA   1.1581 Sell
200-DMA   1.1842 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.193 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0040 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3072/GBP, high of US$1.3173/GBP and settled the day up by 0.213% to close at US$1.3123/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3300 with targets at 1.3100-1.3060-1.3000 and 1.2950-1.2900. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with targets 1.3150-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.3000
S3     1.2950-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.790

Buy
20-DMA   1.3002 Buy
50-DMA   1.3018 Buy
100-DMA   1.3039 Buy
200-DMA   1.3455 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.660 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0052 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.81/USD and settled the day up by 0.0617% at JPY113.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.906 Buy
20-DMA   112.57 Sell
50-DMA   112.44 Sell
100-DMA   111.77 Buy
200-DMA   109.96 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   73.315 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.184 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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