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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks pulled back from a one-month high on Friday as the Federal Reserve appeared poised to deliver another interest rate hike next month, paring gains made earlier this week after U.S. midterm elections triggered a global equities rally. The Fed held interest rates steady on Thursday but remained on track to continue gradually raising borrowing costs, pointing to healthy economic prospects that were marred only by a dip in the growth of business investment. The central bank has hiked U.S. interest rates three times this year and is widely expected to do so again next month. In currencies, with Treasury yields pushing up, the dollar stood tall after advancing against its peers overnight, buoyed by Fed’s largely upbeat economic outlook and its intent to keep tightening monetary policy. After the Fed statement, the two-year Treasury yield US2YT=RR rose to 2.977 percent, the highest in 10-1/2 years.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Thursday but remained on track to keep gradually tightening borrowing costs, as it pointed to a healthy economy that was marred only by a dip in the growth of business investment. Business investment can be a key to rising productivity and future growth, and the fact that it had “moderated from its rapid pace,” as the Fed said, was the only cautionary note in a policy statement that touted strong job gains and household spending, and a “strong rate” of overall economic activity. The statement overall reflected little change in the Fed’s outlook for the economy since its last policy meeting in September. Inflation remained near its 2 percent target, unemployment fell, and risks to the economic outlook were still felt to be “roughly balanced.” Policymakers, however, took particular note of the moderation in business investment, an important component of GDP that can spin off jobs as companies build new facilities, and raise productivity as they upgrade equipment and processes. Boosting investment was one of the main objectives behind the Trump administration’s move to reduce the corporate tax rate as part of its restructuring of the tax code at the end of 2017. After adding four-tenths of a percentage point to economic growth in the first six months of the year, lagging investment in “nonresidential structures” trimmed a quarter of a percentage point in the annualized growth rate for the third quarter. Financial markets, which had expected the Fed to hold its benchmark overnight lending rate steady in the current range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent this week, ticked lower after the statement was released. After a stock market rout in October and signs that both housing and business investment may be waning, some analysts expected the Fed to possibly signal doubt about its next rate increase. Data released in late October showed the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, well above the roughly 2 percent annual growth pace the Fed and many economists regard as the underlying trend. But Fed policymakers also have begun debating whether the economy has reached a plateau as the stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased federal spending begin to fade The Fed’s policy statement did not explicitly take stock of the recent volatility in U.S. equity markets that led to the selloff in October, or address the possibility of a slowdown in global growth next year.
  • Oil markets on Friday remained weak as rising supply and concerns of an economic slowdown pressured prices, with U.S. crude now down by around 20 percent since early October. Analysts said the main downward price pressure came from rising supply, despite the U.S. sanctions against Iran that were imposed this week, as well as concerns over an economic slowdown. The decline in prices over the past weeks follows a rally between August and October when crude rose ahead of the re-introduction of sanctions against Iran's oil exports on Nov. 5. The sanctions, however, are unlikely to cut as much oil out of the market as initially expected as Washington has granted exemptions to Iran's biggest buyers which will allow them to continue buying limited amounts of crude for at least another six months. China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Friday it was continuing to take oil from Iranian oilfields in which it has ownership stakes. Bernstein Energy expects "Iranian exports will average 1.4-1.5 mn bpd during the exemption period," down from a peak of almost 3 million bpd in mid-2018. Analysts said a faster-than-expected build up in the stockpile, concerns over an economic slowdown and waivers the U.S. granted to eight countries on Monday that allowed them to continue buying Iranian crude despite U.S. sanctions were the main catalysts for the oil dip. Meanwhile, sanctions on Iran are less severe than most analysts expected after the Trump administration announced it granted exemptions to eight countries to allow them to continue buying limited amounts of crude for the next six months.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,230 1,238 1,246-1,253
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 61.00-61.50 62.05 62.70-63.30
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1490 1.1540 1.1610-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3150-1.3200 1.3250
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,214 1,207-1,200 1,195
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 60.50-59.90 59.00 58.50-57.90
EURO/USD 1.1340 1.1300-1.1260 1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3050 1.3000 1.2950-1.2900
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.10 111.50-111.20

Intra-Day Strategy (9th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1227.00/oz and low of US$1220.05/oz. Gold down by 0.271% at US$1223.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1238-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1266, targeting 1230-1221-1214 and 1207-1200. Buy above 1230-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1238-1244 and 1250-1256.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,214
S2     1,207-1,200
S3     1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,221-1,230
R2     1,238
R3     1,246-1,253

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.741

Buy
20-DMA   1226.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1209.90

Sell
100-DMA   1216.65 Sell
200-DMA   1267.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.57/oz and low of US$14.37/oz. Silver settled down by 0.894% at US$14.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.35-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.90-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.821 Buy
20-DMA   14.58 Sell
50-DMA   14.43 Sell
100-DMA   14.93 Sell
200-DMA   15.73 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.821 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.013 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$62.51/bbl, intraday low of US$60.56/bbl and settled down by 1.425% to close at US$60.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 61.00-66.30 with stop loss at 63.30; targeting 60.50-59.90 and 59.00-58.50-57.90. Buy above 60.50-57.90 with risk daily closing below 63.30 and targeting 61.00-61.50-62.05 and 63.30-63.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.50-59.90
S2     59.00
S3     58.50-57.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.00-61.50
R2     62.05
R3     62.70-63.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.926 Sell
20-DMA   66.01 Buy
50-DMA   69.15 Buy
100-DMA   68.95 Buy
200-DMA   67.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.781 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.55 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1350/EUR, high of US$1.1446/EUR and settled the day down by 0.542% to close at US$1.1362/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1340-1.1200 with risk below 1.1200, targeting 1.1430-1.1490-1.1540 and 1.1610-1.1690. Sell below 1.1430-1.1690 targeting 1.1380-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.2960-1.2900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1340
S2     1.1300-1.1260
S3     1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430-1.1490
R2     1.1540
R3     1.1610-1.1690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.462 Buy
20-DMA   1.1424 Sell
50-DMA   1.1538 Sell
100-DMA   1.1538 Sell
200-DMA   1.1836 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.304 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3044/GBP, high of US$1.3149/GBP and settled the day down by 0.480% to close at US$1.3060/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3000 and 1.2950-1.2900. Buy above 1.3050-1.2900 with targets 1.3150-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050
S2     1.3000
S3     1.2950-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100
R2     1.3150-1.3200
R3     1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.823

Buy
20-DMA   1.2979 Buy
50-DMA   1.3030 Buy
100-DMA   1.3032 Buy
200-DMA   1.3399 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.45/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.07/USD and settled the day up by 0.502% at JPY114.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.046 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Sell
50-DMA   112.51 Sell
100-DMA   111.81 Buy
200-DMA   109.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.401 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.278 Sell

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