AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar surged to nearly 17-month highs on Monday against a basket of major currencies as investors sought out the liquid and high-yielding asset against a backdrop of global growth worries and rising political risk in Italy and Britain. World stocks fell 0.3 percent for a third straight day in the red, receiving no respite from a rise in oil prices, while initial European equity gains fizzled amid growing fears for Italian lender Carige whose shares were suspended after reports of a capital hole. Many also reckon that U.S. President Donald Trump could turn up the heat over trade, further damaging China's economy. All that, coupled with European political risks, conspired to push the dollar 0.5 percent higher against a basket of currencies by 1230 GMT. Sterling lost more than one percent at one point, holding near a 10-day low hit earlier, while the euro, comprising more than 50 percent of the dollar index, fell 0.7 percent to its lowest since July 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit strategy came under attack from all sides, increasing the risk that her plan for leaving the European Union will be voted down by parliament, thrusting the United Kingdom toward a potentially chaotic "no-deal" Brexit. The opposition Labour Party said that if May's Brexit deal was voted down in parliament, it would push for a national election and possibly also another referendum. Markets were also spooked by reports that Banca Carige would need around 400 million euros ($451 million) to plug a hole in its capital base and Italy's deposit protection fund could fill only part of it. hat raises the specter of a banking crisis in the euro zone's third-biggest economy, lifting Italy's bond yield spread over Germany - the risk premium attached to Italian assets - back above the psychologically key 300 basis-point mark. Italian bank shares fell 1.2 percent. All of this has been good news for dollar bulls, who have benefited from safe-haven flows. Speculators' net long dollar positions rose last week to the highest since January 2016, calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, show.
  • Oil prices were down 1% on Tuesday on reports that U.S. President Donald Trump asked the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to cut supply to drive up crude oil prices His comments came after Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih announced plans on Sunday to cut oil output from December and suggested that other members of OPEC and their non-OPEC allies led by Russia could follow suit The kingdom would cut oil supply by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to lower seasonal demand. The cut represents a reduction in global oil supply of about 0.5%, according to reports. Al-Falih also suggested that there might be a need for OPEC and non-OPEC members to trim supply back by 1 million bpd from October levels. President Donald Trump took aim at Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut oil production on Monday, injecting new tension into an already fraught alliance that has been clouded by U.S. concerns over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the ongoing conflict in Yemen. Trump’s efforts to influence oil production threatens to further strain relations between the two historic allies, even as his administration continues to describe the Saudis as a crucial partner in a shared bid to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East.
  • The dollar traded just below a 16-month high versus a basket of peers, benefiting from save-haven flows as investors shunned riskier assets because of political uncertainties in Europe and fears of a global economic slowdown. Investor confidence has been eroded by bitter trade tensions between the United States and China, fears of a no-deal Brexit, and a standoff between Rome and the European Union over Italy's deficit-deepening budget. Added to that litany is a view that corporate earnings growth has peaked amid rising borrowing costs. The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, with two more hikes to follow by mid-2019, as wage pressures build in a booming economy. The dollar has been preferred over the yen due to the diverging monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, which is expected to retain its ultra-loose monetary policy settings for some time in the face stubbornly sluggish inflation. Sterling traded with a weak bias in early Asian trade at $1.2856. It has slipped against the dollar in the last three trading sessions and posted its largest percentage decline versus the dollar since Sept. 21 on Monday. Investor sentiment has weakened as doubts grow over Prime Minister Theresa May's ability to win the backing of the European Union or her own party for a Brexit deal. With less than five months before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, negotiations are still stuck over how to prevent a return to a hard border between British-ruled Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. Sterling bounced slightly from Monday's intraday lows after the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator said the main elements of an exit treaty text are ready to present to the British cabinet on Tuesday. The standoff between Rome and Brussels over Italy's free spending budget and wide fiscal deficit has put immense strain on the single currency, which has having lost 5.9 percent of its value over the last six months. The European Commission rejected Italy's 2019 budget last month, saying it flouted a previous commitment to lower the country's deficit. Italy is expected to submit a revised version of its budget on Tuesday, keeping euro traders active.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,221 1,230-1,238
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 59.90-60.50 61.00 61.50-62.05
EURO/USD 1.1260 1.1300 1.1340-1.1430
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2950 1.3000 1.3050-1.3100
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,200-1,195 1,189 1,180
Silver-XAG 14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 59.00 58.50-57.80 57.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1160 1.1100 1.1020
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2780 1.2700 1.2650
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.10 111.50-111.20

Intra-Day Strategy (13th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1211.36/oz and low of US$1199.92/oz. Gold down by 0.639% at US$1200.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1238 keeping stop loss closing above 1266, targeting 1200-1195 and 1189-180. Buy above 1200-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1207-1214-1221 and 1238-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,200-1,195
S2     1,189
S3     1,180
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,221
R3     1,230-1,238

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.177

Buy
20-DMA   1226.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1209.90

Sell
100-DMA   1216.65 Sell
200-DMA   1267.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.19/oz and low of US$13.97/oz. Silver settled down by 1.202% at US$13.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.30-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   7.799 Buy
20-DMA   14.49 Sell
50-DMA   14.41 Sell
100-DMA   14.86 Sell
200-DMA   15.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.799 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.089 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$61.41/bbl, intraday low of US$58.78/bbl and settled down by 1.527% to close at US$59.98/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.90-62.05 with stop loss at 62.05; targeting 59.00-58.50 and 57.80-57.00. Buy above 59.00-57.00 with risk daily closing below 57.00 and targeting 59.90-60.50-61.00 and 61.50-62.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00
S2     58.50-57.80
S3     57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.90-60.50
R2     61.00
R3     61.50-62.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   21.468 Sell
20-DMA   65.71 Buy
50-DMA   68.74 Buy
100-DMA   68.74 Buy
200-DMA   67.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.658 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.853 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1214/EUR, high of US$1.1329/EUR and settled the day down by 0.909% to close at US$1.1217/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1260-1.1340-1.1430 and 1.1490-1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1260-1.1430 targeting 1.1200-1.1160 and 1.1100-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1430.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1160
S2     1.1100
S3     1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1260
R2     1.1300
R3     1.1340-1.1430

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.488 Buy
20-DMA   1.1389 Sell
50-DMA   1.1523 Sell
100-DMA   1.1568 Sell
200-DMA   1.1825 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.036 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0054 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2826/GBP, high of US$1.2945/GBP and settled the day down by 0.526% to close at US$1.2846/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3100 with targets at 1.2850-1.2780 and 1.2700-1.2620. Buy above 1.2845-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2950-1.3000-1.3050 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2845-1.2780
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2950
R2     1.3000
R3     1.3050-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.100

Buy
20-DMA   1.2963 Buy
50-DMA   1.3029 Buy
100-DMA   1.3027 Buy
200-DMA   1.3391 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.687 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.21/USD and settled the day up by 0.035% at JPY113.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.046 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Sell
50-DMA   112.51 Sell
100-DMA   111.81 Buy
200-DMA   109.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.401 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.278 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING