AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Thursday, cheered by a bounce in Chinese equities on signs China and the United States may be taking steps to de-escalate their bitter trade dispute, while oil prices resumed their retreat on fears of oversupply. U.S. government sources told Reuters on Wednesday that China had sent a response to U.S. demands for trade reform but gave no further details, raising hopes the two sides could resume negotiations to end their trade war. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.7. The index had fallen the previous day as the sharp slide in oil prices heightened anxiety about the outlook for broad demand and global growth. Traders have cautiously welcomed news in recent days that Washington and Beijing have resumed informal discussions ahead of a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late this month. Few market watchers expect a trade agreement at that meeting but hopes are growing that they may agree on de-escalation while the two sides pursue more detailed talks in currencies, the pound and euro kept gains made after British Prime Minister May's cabinet backed her draft Brexit deal. May now has to gain the support of parliament, though it is unclear whether she has enough votes to clinch approval. The single currency's upside was limited by uncertainty on how European Union officials would react to Italy's latest fiscal proposal after they rejected a version of it last month for violation of certain EU rules. Italy on Wednesday re-submitted its draft 2019 budget to the European Commission with the same growth and deficit assumptions as a draft rejected for breaking European Union rules, stepping up its showdown with the EU over its fiscal policy.
  • Gold prices inched up while the dollar slipped on Thursday following reports that China delivered a written response to U.S. trade demand, and that the two nations resumed talks earlier this week to diffuse their trade disputes. Meanwhile, Asian stocks were lifted by reports that Beijing and Washington resumed talks to diffuse their trade disputes earlier this week. Citing three U.S. government sources, Reuters reported that China delivered a written response to the U.S. for trade reform. However, the sources did not provide any further details. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said in Dallas on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is “in such a good place right now” and that markets should be prepared that the central bank could raise rates at any time starting in 2019. Powell reiterated the central bank is independent and would continue to do what is best for the U.S. economy. His comments came after Trump accused the Fed of raising rates too fast during his administration.
  • The British Pound rose on Thursday following reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May secured support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal. The deal keeps the U.K. within the customs union of the EU for an unspecified amount of time and includes a 21-month transition period after U.K.’s departure in March next year, according to the BBC. “The collective decision of cabinet was that the government should agree the draft withdrawal agreement and the outline political declaration,” May said outside her Downing Street residence after a five-hour cabinet meeting. “I firmly believe with my head and my heart that this is a decision in the best interests of the entire United Kingdom. However, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, says there's much work still to do, and the path may be difficult. Unemployment held steady at 5.0% while the participation rate rose to 65.6% from 65.4%.
  • The U.S. oil market is scrambling to adjust to a deep selloff over the last several weeks, with forward prices signaling a supply glut which could upend plans for producers and traders through 2019. In the biggest sign of the shift, an increasing number of later-dated futures contracts are trading at a premium to current prices. That is a signal that the market expects supply to outpace demand next year and into 2020. That trend could inhibit producers from drilling and deal a blow to shale companies, which have raked in profits as U.S. production surged to a weekly record of 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November. Already, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering a production cut to boost prices. Adding to concerns, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that supply will outpace demand in 2019. Many traders saw $100 oil on the horizon just a month ago, but oil is now closer to $50 a barrel. U.S. production is expected to surpass the 12 mn bpd milestone by mid-2019, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts. As prices fall and market structure weakens, U.S. shale producers may pare their drilling plans for 2019, said R.T. Dukes, research director for U.S. lower 48 upstream at Wood Mackenzie. "I think, instead of a big ramp-up into next year, we get flatter activity than what we might have seen otherwise," he said. Still, any changes would take time to alter the trajectory of production, especially as the largest oil companies, including. The weakening in 2019 contracts pushes the market's structure, or curve, more firmly into contango, where forward prices are higher than spot prices The spread between U.S. crude futures expiring in December 2019 and December 2020 , a popular trade in oil markets, flipped from a premium to a discount of about 42 cents on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,214 1,221 1,230-1,238
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 57.00 57.80 58.50-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1430 1.1500 1.1560
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3100 1.3230 1.3290
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,207 1,200-1,195 1,189
Silver-XAG 14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 56.00-54.80 54.05 53.40-52.65
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1260 1.1200 1.1160-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2780 1.2845-1.2780 1.2845-1.2780
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.10 111.50-111.20

Intra-Day Strategy (15th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$121.45/oz and low of US$1197.62/oz. Gold up by 0.737% at US$1210.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1238 keeping stop loss closing above 1266, targeting 1200-1195 and 1189-180. Buy above 1200-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1207-1214-1221 and 1238-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,207
S2     1,200-1,195
S3     1,189
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,214
R2     1,221
R3     1,230-1,238

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.177

Buy
20-DMA   1226.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1209.90

Sell
100-DMA   1216.65 Sell
200-DMA   1267.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.18/oz and low of US$13.88/oz. Silver settled down by 1.074% at US$14.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.30-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   7.799 Buy
20-DMA   14.49 Sell
50-DMA   14.41 Sell
100-DMA   14.86 Sell
200-DMA   15.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.799 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.089 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.52/bbl, intraday low of US$55.20/bbl and settled down by 1.5% to close at US$56.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting 54.80-54.05 and 53.40-52.65. Buy above 54.80-52.65 with risk daily closing below 52.65 and targeting 56.00-57.00-57.80 and 58.50-59.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.00-54.80
S2     54.05
S3     53.40-52.65

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00
R2     57.80
R3     58.50-59.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   14.71 Sell
20-DMA   64.52 Buy
50-DMA   68.63 Buy
100-DMA   68.70 Buy
200-DMA   67.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.495 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.420 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.162/EUR, high of US$1.1346/EUR and settled the day up by 0.186% to close at US$1.1307/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1260-1.1340-1.1430 and 1.1490-1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1260-1.1430 targeting 1.1200-1.1160 and 1.1100-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1430.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300-1.1260
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1160-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1350-1.1430
R2     1.1500
R3     1.1560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.686 Buy
20-DMA   1.1376 Sell
50-DMA   1.1512 Sell
100-DMA   1.1564 Sell
200-DMA   1.1816 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   43.280 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0054 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2879/GBP, high of US$1.3071/GBP and settled the day up by 0.100% to close at US$1.2982/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3000-1.3230 with targets at 1.2950-1.2900-1.2850 and 1.2780-1.2700. Buy above 1.2950-1.2700 with targets 1.3000-1.3050 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2845-1.2780
S2     1.2845-1.2780
S3     1.2845-1.2780

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3050-1.3100
R2     1.3230
R3     1.3290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.758

Buy
20-DMA   1.2944 Buy
50-DMA   1.3032 Buy
100-DMA   1.3023 Buy
200-DMA   1.3381 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.29/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.00/USD and settled the day up by 0.158% at JPY113.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.046 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Sell
50-DMA   112.51 Sell
100-DMA   111.81 Buy
200-DMA   109.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.401 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.278 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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