Daily Market Lookup

• Asian share markets turned mixed on Friday as hopes for a thaw in the Sino-U.S. trade standoff were tempered by disappointing results from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia Corp which slugged the tech sector. The British pound also lay battered and bruised after a bout of political turmoil fanned fears the country could crash out of the European Union without a divorce deal. Asian shares had started firm after reports the United States might pause on further China tariffs gave Wall Street a fillip, but a near 17 percent plunge in Nvidia's stock tempered the mood. The chip designer forecast disappointing sales for the holiday quarter, pinning the blame on unsold chips piling up with distributors and retailers after the evaporation of the cryptocurrency mining boom. Sterling had stolen the limelight overnight after a rash of resignations rocked Prime Minister Theresa May's government and threw into doubt her long-awaited Brexit agreement just hours after it was unveiled. Fears that May's hard-fought deal could collapse sent British markets into gyrations not seen since the June 2016 referendum on EU membership. All of which helped British bonds rally sharply as investors wagered the political chaos and risk of a hard Brexit would deter the Bank of England from tightening anytime soon.
• The British Pound rose on Thursday following reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May secured support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal. The deal keeps the U.K. within the customs union of the EU for an unspecified amount of time and includes a 21-month transition period after U.K.’s departure in March next year, according to the BBC. “The collective decision of cabinet was that the government should agree the draft withdrawal agreement and the outline political declaration,” May said outside her Downing Street residence after a five-hour cabinet meeting. “I firmly believe with my head and my heart that this is a decision in the best interests of the entire United Kingdom. However, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, says there's much work still to do, and the path may be difficult. Unemployment held steady at 5.0% while the participation rate rose to 65.6% from 65.4%.
• Gold prices remained flat on Thursday. Brexit fears took centre stage after UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab resigned; adding to uncertainty over whether Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal will win parliamentary approval. Raab, in a letter to the prime minister, said he could not support terms of her draft Brexit plan. Without a deal, the U.K. would move from seamless trade with the EU to customs arrangements set by the World Trade Organization for external states. Meanwhile, better-than-expected retail sales figure released on Thursday failed to lift the dollar. The Commerce Department said on Thursday that core retail sales rose 0.7% last month, above economists’ forecast for a 0.5% rise, signalling ongoing strength in consumer spending. The U.S. Department of Labor, meanwhile, reported Thursday that initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Nov. 10, in line with economists’ forecasts.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday as expectations that the OPEC would start cutting supply overshadowed a big crude stock build last week. Despite the rebound of the past two days, WTI remains about 27% lower from four-year highs of nearly $77 hit in early October. OPEC, which meets on Dec. 6 in Vienna for its policy-setting meeting, is widely expected to agree on cuts of around 1 million bpd or more from its current production of above 33 million bpd. "The Saudis have the power to rescue this market. They went from announcing a million barrels in cuts initially to 1.4 million barrels over a matter days. There are the stirrings of a reaction coming and no one wants to be caught on the wrong side." Meanwhile, the EIA reported on Thursday the biggest weekly crude stock build in 21 months. U.S. crude stockpiles jumped by nearly 10.3 million barrels last week, compared to the expectation of a build of just 3.2 mn barrels. Oil prices were stable on Friday, supported by expected supply cuts from OPEC but held back by record U.S. production. Prices were mainly supported by expectations the OPEC would start withholding supply soon, fearing a renewed rout such as in 2014 when prices crashed under the weight of oversupply. While OPEC considers withholding supply, U.S. crude oil production reached another record last week, at 11.7 mn bpd, according to U.S. EIA data published on Thursday. U.S. output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year The record output meant U.S. crude oil stocks posted the biggest weekly build in nearly two years. Crude inventories soared 10.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 9 to 442.1 million barrels, the highest level since early December 2017.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1216.45/oz and low of US$1207.78/oz. Gold up by 0.737% at US$1212.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1238 keeping stop loss closing above 1266, targeting 1200-1195 and 1189-180. Buy above 1200-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1207-1214-1221 and 1238-1244.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.33/oz and low of US$14.08/oz. Silver settled down by 1.349% at US$14.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.45/bbl, intraday low of US$55.78/bbl and settled up by 0.978% to close at US$56.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting 54.80-54.05 and 53.40-52.65. Buy above 54.80-52.65 with risk daily closing below 52.65 and targeting 56.00-57.00-57.80 and 58.50-59.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1269/EUR, high of US$1.1361/EUR and settled the day up by 0.150% to close at US$1.1324/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1260-1.1340-1.1430 and 1.1490-1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1260-1.1430 targeting 1.1200-1.1160 and 1.1100-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1430.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2722/GBP, high of US$1.3029/GBP and settled the day down by 1.671% to close at US$1.2763/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2800-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.09/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.70/USD and settled the day up by 0.015% at JPY113.61USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.