AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Share markets turned mixed in Asia on Monday amid conflicting signals on the prospects for a truce in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, while the Federal Reserve's newly-found concerns over the global economy constrained the dollar. Wall Street had firmed on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he may not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions. The comment stoked speculation of a deal when Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina later this month. However, Sino-U.S. tensions were clearly on display at an APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea over the weekend, where leaders failed to agree on a communique for the first time ever. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said in a blunt speech that there would be no end to U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods until China changed its ways. Federal Reserve policymakers are still signaling rate increases ahead but also sounded more concerned about a potential global slowdown, leading markets to suspect the tightening cycle may not have much further to run. British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday that toppling her would risk delaying Brexit as she faces the possibility of a leadership challenge from within her own party. With both pro-EU and pro-Brexit lawmakers unhappy with the draft agreement, it is not clear she will be able to win the backing of parliament, raising the risk Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
  • The dollar eased slightly versus other major currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the global growth outlook, prompting traders to reassess the pace of future U.S. interest rate increases. The greenback has enjoyed a strong run this year thanks to the Fed's steady policy tightening on the back of a robust economy and rising wage pressures. A fourth rate hike for this year is expected next month and policy makers had indicated two more by June 2019. But comments on Friday by Richard Clarida, the Fed's newly appointed vice chair, put to the test market expectations for a steady pace of tightening. Clarida cautioned about a slowdown in global growth, saying "that's something that is going to be relevant" for the outlook for the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan, in a separate interview with Fox Business, also said he is seeing a growth slowdown in Europe and China. The comments may hint that the Fed is set to slow down its pace of monetary tightening and led some traders to question whether the dollar's rally was nearing its end, with the benchmark U.S. 10 year treasury yields pulling back slightly. New York Fed President John Williams will speak later on Monday and traders would be waiting to see if he echoes the same theme as his colleagues. The dollar lost 0.9 percent versus the yen last week as traders rushed into the safe-haven Japanese currency on concerns over U.S.-Sino trade tensions and political risks in Europe around Brexit and the Italian budget The British pound wobbled at $1.2832, having come under heavy selling last week amid turmoil over British Prime Minister Theresa May's draft Brexit plan. The currency is expected to remain under pressure until the market gets more clarity on the progress of the Brexit deal, CMC Markets' McCarthy said. In the days since May unveiled a draft EU divorce deal, May's premiership has been thrust into crisis. Several ministers, including her Brexit minister, have resigned and some of her lawmakers are seeking to oust her. vWith both pro-EU and pro-Brexit lawmakers unhappy with the draft agreement, it is not clear she will be able to win the backing of parliament for it, raising the risk Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as traders expected top exporter Saudi Arabia to push producer club OPEC to cut supply toward year-end. Despite that, markets remained wary amid deep trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), de facto led by Saudi Arabia, is pushing for the producer cartel and its allies to cut 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply to adjust for a slowdown in demand growth and prevent oversupply. Despite Monday's gains, crude prices remain almost a quarter below their recent peaks in early October, weighed down by surging supply and a slowdown in demand growth. This comes in part after Washington granted Iran's major oil customers, mostly in Asia, unexpectedly broad exemptions to sanctions it re-imposed on Tehran in November. Japanese refiner Fuji Oil is set to resume Iranian crude purchases after Japan received one of those waivers, industry sources familiar with the matter said. Japan had ceased all purchases of Iranian oil prior to receiving the waiver in early November. Meanwhile, oil production in the United States is surging. U.S. energy firms added two oil rigs in the week to Nov. 16, bringing the total count to 888, the highest level since March 2015, a weekly report by energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. The rising drilling activity points to a further increase in U.S. crude oil production , which has already jumped by almost a quarter this year, to a record 11.7 million bpd. Put off by a surge in supply and the slowdown in demand, financial markets have been becoming increasingly wary of the oil sector, with money managers cutting their bullish wagers on crude futures and options to the lowest level since June 2017, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,230-1,238 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 57.80 58.50-59.00 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1430-1.1500 1.1560 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2845 1.2900 1.2950-1.3000
USD/JPY 113.00-113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,214-1,207 1,200 1,195-1,189
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 57.00-56.00 54.80 54.05-53.40
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1300 1.1260 1.1200-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.2800-1.2780 1.2700 1.2660-1.2600
USD/JPY 112.10 111.50-111.20 110.15

Intra-Day Strategy (19th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1214-1238 keeping stop loss closing above 1244, targeting 1214-1200-1195 and 1189-1180. Buy above 1205-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1207-1214-1221 and 1238-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,214-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,195-1,189
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,221
R2     1,230-1,238
R3     1,244

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.177

Buy
20-DMA   1226.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1209.90

Sell
100-DMA   1216.65 Sell
200-DMA   1267.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.40/oz and low of US$14.22/oz. Silver settled down by 1.265% at US$14.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.602 Buy
20-DMA   14.43 Sell
50-DMA   14.41 Sell
100-DMA   14.79 Sell
200-DMA   15.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$58.15/bbl, intraday low of US$56.12/bbl and settled up by 0.440% to close at US$57.03/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.80-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting 57.00-56.00-54.80 and 54.05-53.40. Buy above 57.00-53.40 with risk daily closing below 53.40 and targeting 57.80-58.50 and 59.00-60.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.00
S2     54.80
S3     54.05-53.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.80
R2     58.50-59.00
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.407 Sell
20-DMA   62.00 Buy
50-DMA   67.75 Buy
100-DMA   68.07 Buy
200-DMA   67.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.523 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.420 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1320/EUR, high of US$1.1419/EUR and settled the day up by 0.777% to close at US$1.1412/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1430-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350-1.1300
S2     1.1260
S3     1.1200-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430-1.1500
R2     1.1560
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.232 Buy
20-DMA   1.1367 Sell
50-DMA   1.1505 Sell
100-DMA   1.1558 Sell
200-DMA   1.1807 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0054 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2756/GBP, high of US$1.2876/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0548% to close at US$1.2833/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2800-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800-1.2780
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.895

Buy
20-DMA   1.2916 Buy
50-DMA   1.3026 Buy
100-DMA   1.3016 Buy
200-DMA   1.3370 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.519 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.62/USD and settled the day up by 0.015% at JPY112.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.10
S2     111.50-111.20
S3     110.15

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.046 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Sell
50-DMA   112.51 Sell
100-DMA   111.81 Buy
200-DMA   109.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.401 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.278 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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