AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • World stock markets rose on Wednesday, with Wall Street tipping higher on gains in technology and energy shares, while oil rebounded from a steep sell-off as U.S. government data pointed to strong demand. Crude oil prices climbed after U.S. government data showed strong demand for gasoline and diesel, though concerns over rising crude supply remained. U.S. crude prices on Tuesday sank to one-year lows U.S. stocks also found support on speculation that the Federal Reserve could ease up on its path of interest-rate hikes, said Chad Morganlander, senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors in Florham Park, New Jersey. A report from MNI suggested that the Fed may pause its rate hiking cycle as early as spring 2019. U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open for a half-day on Friday. In currency markets, the euro rose on hopes that the Italian budget dispute would be resolved even as the European Commission took its first step toward disciplining Italy over its deficit.
  • The dollar was unchanged on Thursday as safe-haven demand remained subdued after a rebound in U.S. stocks overnight. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday that initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 last week, missing economists’ forecast for a drop to 215,000. Meanwhile, core durable goods orders rose 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department said. That was below consensus estimates for a 0.4% rise. The Federal Reserve’s future rate hike policy received moderate attention as traders start to question if the central bank could continue to increase rates without risking a slowdown in the U.S. economy. According to a Reuters poll, analysts expected three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25% by the end of next year, although the third rate rise is a close call. The dollar drifted lower in Asian trade on Thursday as demand for safe haven currencies remained subdued after a rebound in global equities, while the euro strengthened on hopes for a resolution of Italy's budget dispute. The Fed is expected to announce its fourth rate hike of 2018 in December, but investors are beginning to question how many rate hikes the Fed can implement next year without risking a slowdown in the U.S., which has held up well so far even as borrowing costs have risen Sim added that while Bank of Singapore's house view was still for the Fed to hike four times in 2019, any change in the policymakers' 'dot plot' projections would prompt significant repricing in the markets. Last week, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan raised concerns over a potential global slowdown that has markets betting heavily that the rate-hike cycle is on its last legs, even as the senior central bankers still signaled further interest rate increases ahead. While the Fed is on a monetary tightening path, the Bank of Japan looks set to maintain its ultra loose monetary policy for some time due to low growth and inflation. This interest rate differential between U.S. and Japanese bonds makes the dollar a more attractive bet than the yen. The euro gained 0.1 percent on Wednesday despite the European Union rejecting Italy's fiscal plans for failing to comply with euro zone rules. Traders were relieved after Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expressed concern about the government bond spread and pledged reforms. The euro has risen in six out of the last seven sessions but analysts said it remained vulnerable to political risks from Italy.
  • Oil prices steadied on Thursday morning in Asia as U.S. crude stock rose to its highest level in 11 months, putting pressure on oil prices. The market expects OPEC to cut output, easing market fears of an oversupply. According to U.S.’ Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks surged by 4.9 million barrels as of Nov. 16 to 446.9 million barrels from the previous week, marking the highest level since December 2017. The country cut three oil rigs to a total of 885 as of Nov. 21, while neighboring Canada added six oil rigs, reaching 124 in total, data released Wednesday by energy services firm Baker Hughes showed. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump thanked OPEC de-facto leader Saudi Arabia for helping to lower oil prices, after releasing a statement earlier in the week declaring its friendly stance towards the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has been encountering international pressure over its role in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Tom Kloza, co-founder of the Oil Price Information Service, told CNBC that the low oil prices won’t last for too long. U.S. crude oil production remained at a record 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd), the EIA said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,244 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 55.00-56.00 57.00 57.80-58.50
EURO/USD 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2855 1.2900 1.2950-1.3000
USD/JPY 113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 54.05-53.40 52.80 52.00
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1300 1.1260-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2800-1.2780 1.2700 1.2660-1.2600
USD/JPY 113.00-112.10 111.50 111.20-110.15

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1230.01/oz and low of US$1219.68/oz. Gold up by 0.370% at US$1225.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1214-1238 keeping stop loss closing above 1244, targeting 1214-1200-1195 and 1189-1180. Buy above 1205-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1207-1214-1221 and 1238-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,244
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.397

Buy
20-DMA   1222.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.90

Sell
100-DMA   1213.65 Sell
200-DMA   1262.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.54/oz and low of US$14.26/oz. Silver settled up by 1.329% at US$14.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.602 Buy
20-DMA   14.43 Sell
50-DMA   14.41 Sell
100-DMA   14.79 Sell
200-DMA   15.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$55.58/bbl, intraday low of US$53.39/bbl and settled up by 2.228% to close at US$54.58/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 50DMA i.e. 69.62 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 55.00-58.50 with stop loss at 58.50; targeting 54.05-53.40 and 52.80-52.00. Buy above 54.05-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00 and targeting 55.00-56.00-57.00 and 57.80-58.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.05-53.40
S2     52.80
S3     52.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     55.00-56.00
R2     57.00
R3     57.80-58.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.407 Sell
20-DMA   62.00 Buy
50-DMA   67.75 Buy
100-DMA   68.07 Buy
200-DMA   67.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.523 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.420 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1356/EUR, high of US$1.1424/EUR and settled the day up by 0.114% to close at US$1.1381/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1430-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430
R2     1.1500-1.1560
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.120 Buy
20-DMA   1.1365 Sell
50-DMA   1.1497 Sell
100-DMA   1.1553 Sell
200-DMA   1.1797 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.866 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0029 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2763/GBP, high of US$1.2819/GBP and settled the day down by 0.279% to close at US$1.2774/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2855-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800-1.2780
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2855
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.433

Buy
20-DMA   1.2900 Buy
50-DMA   1.3014 Buy
100-DMA   1.3005 Buy
200-DMA   1.3356 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.500 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0048 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.63/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.14/USD and settled the day up by 0.184% at JPY113.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.10
S2     111.50
S3     111.20-110.15

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.175 Buy
20-DMA   113.15 Sell
50-DMA   112.91 Sell
100-DMA   112.10 Buy
200-DMA   110.22 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   43.636 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

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