AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar held broad gains on Monday as investors sought shelter in the world's most liquid currency on fears of a slowdown in global economic growth and as U.S.-Sino trade tensions sapped risk appetite. The greenback, considered a safe haven currency, advanced as last week's capitulation in oil prices raised investor concerns that the global economic recovery was losing steam. European Union leaders sealed a Brexit pact on Sunday calling it the "best possible" deal that Britain could have achieved. A vote in the British parliament is expected to take place just before the next EU summit on Dec. 13-14 and most analysts expect sterling to remain subdued until then. With Brexit issues apparently settled in the immediate-term, currency traders are looking to the upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30, where U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss contentious trade matters. Investors are looking to see if a workable deal can come out of the summit. Outside of such an agreement, Washington is looking to raise its 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25% by early next year. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports - about $267 billion in goods - if Beijing fails to address U.S. demands on trade. Analysts expect the yen to weaken further against the dollar due to the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is on a monetary tightening path while the BOJ remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy due to low growth and inflation. Another factor supporting the dollar/yen is Japanese investors' heavy investment in U.S. and other dollar-denominated foreign assets. The ongoing tussle between Rome and Brussels over Italy's free-spending budget, which breaks the European Commission's fiscal rules, has also put the euro under pressure. However, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini hinted on Sunday at the possibility of tweaking the country's deficit goal for next year, a move that could open talks between Rome and Brussels to avoid a disciplinary procedure against Italy. There will be increased focus on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s appearance at the European parliament on Monday, with markets expecting him to take dovish tone given the weakness in recent economic data.
  • The pound rose after European leaders endorsed the U.K.’s Brexit divorce terms at a special summit on Sunday in Brussels. The European Union signed off on the deal as expected, but warned British politicians they won’t get a better agreement if they reject it. That may keep a lid on sterling gains, given that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May needs to get the deal through Parliament and is facing calls to change it from both her own party and opposition Labour. The vote in the House of Commons may take place between Dec. 10-11, newswire Ansa reported, citing unidentified people in the EU. Approval by lawmakers could drive the pound up above $1.35, while rejection could send it toward $1.20, currency strategists have said.
  • Gold prices edged up on Monday in Asia along while the dollar was flat after the Thanksgiving week holiday. Market watchers are keeping an eye on the Fed’s policy outlook ahead of high-level U.S.-China trade talks on Friday, which could weigh on precious metals this week. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are to meet at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires to discuss trade issues, and market watchers will be waiting to see if the two largest economies in the world will ease trade tensions. If Washington and Beijing can come to terms, market sentiment will improve and demand for safe-haven assets such as gold will be lower. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Wednesday to address the economic outlook, which may give the dollar a boost. A firmer U.S. dollar makes dollar-denominated assets such as gold more expensive for foreign buyers, and vice versa.
  • Oil prices rebounded on Monday in Asia after slumping 8% last Friday amid concerns that excess supply and the weakening demand side pressures could create a glut next year. The gains did little to make up for Friday's selloff, as the U.S. benchmark registered its worst day in about three years, amid indications of swelling global inventories. Brent lost about 12% for the week. Ministers from the OPEC meet on Dec. 6 in Vienna to decide on production policy for the next six months. OPEC officials have been making increasingly frequent public statements that the cartel and its partners would start withholding crude in 2019 to tighten supply and prop up prices. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, wants the cartel to slash production by about 1 mn bpd, according to recent reports. Oil markets have also been weighed down by a strong U.S.-dollar that has been gaining momentum since late October. The greenback strengthened due to rising interest rates that have pulled investor money out of other assets like oil, which are seen as riskier than the dollar.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,244 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 51.50-52.00 52.80 53.30-54.05
EURO/USD 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2855 1.2900 1.2950-1.3000
USD/JPY 113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 50.50-50.00 49.30 48.50
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1300 1.1260-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2780 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 113.00-112.10 111.50 111.20-110.15

Intra-Day Strategy (26th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1228.49/oz and low of US$1220.22/oz. Gold down by 0.352% at US$1222.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260, targeting 1221-1214-1200 and 1195-1189. Buy above 1221-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1230-1238-1244 and 1250-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,244
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.338

Buy
20-DMA   1221.37 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.90

Sell
100-DMA   1212.54 Sell
200-DMA   1261.66 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.624 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.010 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.49/oz and low of US$14.17/oz. Silver settled down by 1.247% at US$14.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.602 Buy
20-DMA   14.43 Sell
50-DMA   14.41 Sell
100-DMA   14.79 Sell
200-DMA   15.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$54.10/bbl, intraday low of US$50.37/bbl and settled down by 6.458% to close at US$50.40/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.50-54.05 with stop loss at 54.05; targeting 50.50-50.00 and 49.30-48.50. Buy above 50.50-48.50 with risk daily closing below 48.50 and targeting 51.50-52.00 and 52.80-53.30-54.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.50-50.00
S2     49.30
S3     48.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.50-52.00
R2     52.80
R3     53.30-54.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.349 Sell
20-DMA   58.48 Buy
50-DMA   66.10
100-DMA   67.08 Buy
200-DMA   66.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.283 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.420 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1327/EUR, high of US$1.1420/EUR and settled the day down by 0.570% to close at US$1.1334/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1430-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430
R2     1.1500-1.1560
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.101 Buy
20-DMA   1.1361 Sell
50-DMA   1.1478 Sell
100-DMA   1.1542 Sell
200-DMA   1.1781 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.678 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2795/GBP, high of US$1.2881/GBP and settled the day down by 0.790% to close at US$1.2812/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2855-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800
S2     1.2780
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2855
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.957

Buy
20-DMA   1.2903 Buy
50-DMA   1.3005 Buy
100-DMA   1.2997 Buy
200-DMA   1.3342 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.957 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0043 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.00/USD and settled the day up by 0.026% at JPY112.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.10
S2     111.50
S3     111.20-110.15

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.347 Buy
20-DMA   113.24 Sell
50-DMA   112.95 Sell
100-DMA   112.15 Buy
200-DMA   110.29 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   69.724 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

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