AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets fought to keep a global rebound alive on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to quash hopes of a trade truce with China, clouding what had been a bright start to the week. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he expects to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent currently. Trump said it was "highly unlikely" he would accept China's request to hold off on the increase, planned for Jan. 1. The comments ran counter to recent speculation about a possible deal when Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week. Trump's remarks came just as the mood among investors had shown signs of brightening and Wall Street took heart from an upbeat holiday shopping period. The rally came after the S&P 500 on Friday recorded its lowest close in six months, down more than 10 percent from September's peaks and back in "correction" territory. In commodity markets, oil prices laboured with record production by Saudi Arabia. Oil had climbed nearly 3 percent on Monday but that was seen as largely a technical correction after weeks of heavy losses, driven both by oversupply and demand worries. Ears will thus be pricked for a speech by Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida later on Tuesday, ahead of an appearance by Chair Jerome Powell the day after.
  • The dollar and the yuan were flat on Tuesday even after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he would impose duties on all remaining imports from China if talks with Xi Jinping later this week fail to produce a trade deal. The two leaders are set to meet at the G-20 meeting in Argentina on Nov. 30. Traders previously hoped that the summit would diffuse trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Traders also awaited a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday and minutes from the central bank's meeting to be released the next day, for more hints on how many more times the Fed is likely to raise interest rates. The dollar held steady on Tuesday as fresh concerns about the Sino-U.S. trade war lent support to safe haven currencies, although moves were tempered as investors await possible cues from the Federal Reserve about policy direction. Weighing on global risk sentiment were comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday that seemed to hose down hopes of a trade truce with China. The greenback has advanced over the previous two sessions as investors sought the safety of the world's most liquid currency on fears that the global economic recovery was losing steam. Traders are also focused this week on a speech on Wednesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and minutes from the central bank's Nov. 7-8 meeting to be released on Thursday, for further cues of how many more times the Fed is likely to hike interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December but the key debate in the market now is the pace of the U.S. central bank's monetary tightening path in 2019. Twidale warned that the dollar could see safe haven buying if there is no positive news from the upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30, where Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to discuss contentious trade matters. However, investors also see the dollar's rally potentially losing steam if slowing growth prompts the Fed to halt its monetary tightening cycle sooner than expected. But analysts expect the yen to weaken against the dollar due to the divergence between the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's monetary policies. While the Fed is on a monetary tightening path, the BOJ remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy due to low growth and inflation.
  • Oil prices slipped on Tuesday in Asia and traded near their lowest levels in more than a year amid growing concerns of an oversupply in the market. Citing an industry source, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November and pumped around 11.1-11.3 mn barrels per day. Meanwhile, the OPEC and its allies are set to meet in Austria next week, and they're expected to announce that output will be reduced. This week’s G20 summit is another major focus for market watchers, who will see if U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping can de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war. In recent months, Trump has put pressure on his political ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de-facto leader, not to cut production. On Monday, Dow Jones reported that Saudi Arabia and OPEC planned to announce an extension of current cuts and quotas from 2016 into 2019, then working to “over comply” to erase out the glut in supply. The group hopes that such "clandestine" cuts will keep the president from tweeting that there should be no reduction in supplies. "It will be still a big cut but less pronounced," a senior Saudi oil advisor told Dow Jones. OPEC had floated a 1.4 million bpd cut before Trump started pushing back. "Oil is on a slippery slope," said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer. Ruecker said the weak sentiment "follows a surprisingly swift and pronounced change in the market mood from shortage fears to glut concerns," while the world economy was also slowing down.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,244 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 54.80-55.30 56.20 57.00-57.50
EURO/USD 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2855 1.2900 1.2950-1.3000
USD/JPY 113.50 114.00 114.70-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 54.05-53.30 52.80 52.00-51.50
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1300 1.1260-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2780 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 113.00-112.10 111.50 111.20-110.15

Intra-Day Strategy (27th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1228.03/oz and low of US$1221.64/oz. Gold down by 0.110% at US$1221.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260, targeting 1221-1214-1200 and 1195-1189. Buy above 1221-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1230-1238-1244 and 1250-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,244
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.338

Buy
20-DMA   1221.37 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.90

Sell
100-DMA   1212.54 Sell
200-DMA   1261.66 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.624 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.010 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.42/oz and low of US$14.19/oz. Silver settled down by 0.700% at US$14.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.30-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.668 Buy
20-DMA   14.35 Sell
50-DMA   14.44 Sell
100-DMA   14.69 Sell
200-DMA   15.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.694 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$55.85/bbl, intraday low of US$53.39/bbl and settled down by 6.458% to close at US$54.58/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.80-57.50 with stop loss at 57.50; targeting 54.05-53.30-52.80 and 52.00-51.00. Buy above 54.05-51.50 with risk daily closing below 51.50 and targeting 54.80-55.30 and 56.20-57.00-57.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.05-53.30
S2     52.80
S3     52.00-51.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.80-55.30
R2     56.20
R3     57.00-57.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.945 Sell
20-DMA   60.15 Buy
50-DMA   66.83 Buy
100-DMA   67.52 Buy
200-DMA   66.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.650 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.631 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1324/EUR, high of US$1.1383/EUR and settled the day down by 0.570% to close at US$1.1326/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1430-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430
R2     1.1500-1.1560
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.101 Buy
20-DMA   1.1361 Sell
50-DMA   1.1478 Sell
100-DMA   1.1542 Sell
200-DMA   1.1781 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.678 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2794/GBP, high of US$1.2863/GBP and settled the day down by 0.101% to close at US$1.2803/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2855-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800
S2     1.2780
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2855
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.957

Buy
20-DMA   1.2903 Buy
50-DMA   1.3005 Buy
100-DMA   1.2997 Buy
200-DMA   1.3342 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.957 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0043 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.00/USD and settled the day up by 0.026% at JPY112.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.50-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 113.00-112.00-111.50 and 111.20-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-110.70 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.70-115.50 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.10
S2     111.50
S3     111.20-110.15

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.70-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.347 Buy
20-DMA   113.24 Sell
50-DMA   112.95 Sell
100-DMA   112.15 Buy
200-DMA   110.29 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   69.724 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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