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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares dithered on Wednesday and the dollar jumped to a near 1-1/2-year top as risk assets rowed back amid conflicting signals on prospects for de-escalating the Sino-U.S. trade dispute. Asian markets had slipped on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal it was "highly unlikely" he would accept China's request to hold off on a planned increase in tariffs to 25% from 10%. However, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow sought to brighten the mood by confirming a dinner powwow between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at an coming G20 gathering in Argentina. He also held open the possibility that the two countries would reach a trade deal. The news boosted Wall Street's main indexes, which finished in positive territory after spending much of the session in the red. It was still unclear whether the two sides had agreed on a formal agenda for the leaders' meeting after the G20 summit and Kudlow said there were no scheduled talks on the ground for their advisers. At the same time, a German magazine reported citing EU sources that Trump could impose tariffs on imported cars from next week, sending European auto stocks sharply lower. Also on Tuesday, a German magazine published a report citing European Union sources saying Trump could impose tariffs on imported cars from next week, which sent European auto stocks sharply lower. Investors will now turn attention to a speech on Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for further clues on how many more times the U.S. central bank is likely to raise interest rates. The event has become more critical as signs of a global slowdown and nearly two months of market volatility have clouded an otherwise rosy U.S. picture, prompting speculation the Fed will go slow on rate hikes next year. Traders will watch the speech in light of Trump's criticism of Powell in a newspaper interview in which the president said interest rates and other Fed policies were damaging the U.S. economy. British Prime Minister Theresa May will take her Brexit sales pitch to Scotland on Wednesday where she will likely face an uphill struggle to convince skeptical voters of the benefits of her deal for businesses.
  • The dollar held near two-week highs on Wednesday, as concerns about Sino-U.S. trade tensions propped up safe haven currencies and as investors awaited cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the path of future interest rate increases. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks on signs the Fed might slow the pace of future rate increases due to slowing global growth, peak corporate earnings and escalating trade tensions. Attention has now turned to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later on Wednesday and the minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 7-8 meeting on Thursday. Markets hope to gain fresh insights into the Fed's thinking on the speed and number of rate hikes in the current cycle. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points next month. In an interview to the Washington Post on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he is unhappy with the Fed's policy stance and Powell, whom he picked last year to lead the bank. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed and Powell on the U.S. central bank's monetary policy stance, saying rising U.S. rates were harming the economy. But analysts think it is unlikely that political interference can alter the Fed's approach to formulating monetary policy. ollar strength also reflected risks around the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires between Nov. 30-Dec. 1 where Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to discuss contentious trade matters. Trump's comments this week that it was "highly unlikely" he would accept China's request to hold off a planned increase in tariffs drove investors to safe-haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen.
  • Oil prices rose on Wednesday in Asia ahead of an OPEC meeting next week. The upcoming G-20 gathering will also be closely watched, as Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to meet over dinner Saturday evening in Buenos Aires to resume trade talks. Despite today’s gains, oil prices have still lost around 30% in value since early October after the U.S. pushed ahead with Iran oil sanctions but granted waivers to 8 countries and allowed them to continue buying Iranian oil. The OPEC will meet on Dec. 6 to discuss output policy. Meanwhile G20 nations will gather in Argentina this weekend, at which the Sino-American trade dispute, as well as oil policy, are expected to be discussed.
  • On Tuesday, U.S. National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the White House was having "a lot of communication with the Chinese government at all levels" and that President Donald Trump thinks there is a “good possibility” the two countries could reach an agreement. The Buzzard oilfield, which pumps about 150,000 bpdhas closed temporarily after the discovery of pipe corrosion. As a result, trade sources said three cargoes due to load in December had been canceled. The OPEC will meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Dec. 6 to discuss output policy. Portfolio managers have slashed their combined net long position in crude futures by a total of 607 mn barrels over the last eight weeks, the largest reduction over a comparable period since at least 2013, when the current data series began, exchange data showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,230-1,238 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 52.80-53.30 54.05 54.80-55.30
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560
GBP/USD 1.2800-1.2855 1.2900 1.2950-1.3000
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 52.00-51.50 50.20 49.60
EURO/USD 1.1300 1.1260-1.1205 1.1160
GBP/USD 1.2780 1.2700-1.2660 1.2600
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.10 111.50-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1225.18/oz and low of US$1211.86/oz. Gold down by 0.608% at US$1214.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260, targeting 1221-1214-1200 and 1195-1189. Buy above 1221-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1230-1238-1244 and 1250-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,221
R2     1,230-1,238
R3     1,244

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.858

Buy
20-DMA   1220.05 Sell
50-DMA  

1214.42

Sell
100-DMA   1211.17 Sell
200-DMA   1259.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.655 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.356 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.29/oz and low of US$14.08/oz. Silver settled down by 0.704% at US$14.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.30-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.668 Buy
20-DMA   14.35 Sell
50-DMA   14.44 Sell
100-DMA   14.69 Sell
200-DMA   15.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.694 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$52.40/bbl, intraday low of US$52.40/bbl and settled up by 1.008% to close at US$52.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.80-55.30 with stop loss at 55.30; targeting 52.00-51.50-51.00 and 50.20-49.60. Buy above 52.05-49.60 with risk daily closing below 49.60 and targeting 52.80-53.30-54.05 and 54.80-55.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.00-51.50
S2     50.20
S3     49.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.80-53.30
R2     54.05
R3     54.80-55.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.945 Sell
20-DMA   60.15 Buy
50-DMA   66.83 Buy
100-DMA   67.52 Buy
200-DMA   66.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.650 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.631 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1276/EUR, high of US$1.1343/EUR and settled the day down by 0.388% to close at US$1.1282/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1350-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300
S2     1.1260-1.1205
S3     1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1350
R2     1.1430
R3     1.1500-1.1560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.969 Buy
20-DMA   1.1356 Sell
50-DMA   1.1463 Sell
100-DMA   1.1534 Sell
200-DMA   1.1770 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.560 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2/GBP, high of US$1.2819/GBP and settled the day down by 0.484% to close at US$1.2741/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2800-1.3000 with targets at 1.2780-1.2700 and 2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2780-1.2600 with targets 1.2880-1.2845-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2780
S2     1.2700-1.2660
S3     1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2800-1.2855
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.630

Buy
20-DMA   1.2901 Buy
50-DMA   1.2981 Buy
100-DMA   1.2982 Buy
200-DMA   1.3324 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.808 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.40/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.193% at JPY113.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.10 and 111.50-111.20. Long positions above 113.50-110.70 with targets of 114.00-114.70 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.208 Buy
20-DMA   113.34 Sell
50-DMA   113.02 Sell
100-DMA   112.20 Buy
200-DMA   110.35 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   95.140 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

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