AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks advanced on Thursday, tracking a surge on Wall Street, after the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested it may nearing an end to its three-year rate tightening cycle, boosting interest in riskier assets. The dollar struggled and U.S. Treasury yields dipped after Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that U.S. policy rates were "just below" neutral, less than two months after saying rates were probably "a long way" from that point. However, gains in Asia were tempered by investor jitters ahead of high-stakes trade talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Saturday on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina. Economists at ANZ pointed out that policy hawks in the Trump administration who want Washington to take a tough stance against Beijing appear to be in the ascendancy. Analysts believe any signs of a thaw in U.S.-China tensions could trigger a knee-jerk rally but say the move would likely be short lived unless there are substantive compromises from both sides -- most notably if Xi can persuade Trump to postpone a sharp tariff hike on Chinese goods due to take effect Jan. 1.
  • The dollar slipped on Thursday morning in Asia after the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said interest rates are “just below neutral,” signaling a potential end of the bank’s cycle of rate hike. Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed’s interest rate of 2 to 2.5% was just below the neutral level. As recently as October, however, Powell had said the rate was “a long way” from neutral. This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump told the Washington Post he is “not even a little bit happy” with his selection of Powell as chair of the Fed. He has repeatedly criticized Powell and the central bank’s decisions on interest rates. Minutes from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month are set to be released on Thursday and are expected to provide some indication of future interest rate hikes. Another area of focus for investors is the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, where Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet and discuss trade issues. Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday that “there’s a good possibility that we can make a deal, and he [Trump] is open to it.”
  • The dollar extended its overnight losses on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said U.S. interest rates were just below neutral, taken by investors as a tip that the rate hike cycle was nearing its end. Powell's dovish remarks took the currency markets by surprise as he noted that the policy rate, at 2-2.25 percent, is now "just below" the broad range of estimates of neutral, which in September was 2.5-3.5%. This view represents a significant departure from comments in October when he said rates were a "long way from neutral at this point". The Fed chairman's remarks led to the dollar weakening across the board, especially versus riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which both gained 1.2% in the previous session. Traders expect more clues on the Fed's monetary tightening path from the minutes of the U.S. central bank's Nov. 7-8 meeting, due out later on Thursday. Catril noted that safe-haven buying could return to the greenback if there were no signs of a truce between Washington and Beijing over the course of the G20 summit. Trump said this week it was "highly unlikely" he would agree to China's request to hold off a planned increase in tariffs for further talks. Investors expect the pound to remain under pressure as traders bet that British Prime Minister Theresa May will fail to win approval for her Brexit deal from a fractious parliament. The Bank of England warned on Wednesday that Britain risks a bigger hit to its economy than it suffered from the global financial crisis a decade ago if it leaves the European Union in a "disorderly" manner, which would include a 25 percent crash in the value of the pound.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday morning in Asia despite a leap in U.S. crude inventories and ahead of an OPEC meeting next week in Vienna. U.S. crude inventories rose 3.6 mn barrels to 450.5 million barrels as of Nov. 23, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Ibe Kachikwu and his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, said the stability of oil prices is a priority ahead of the scheduled Dec. 6 meeting of the OPEC. Saudi Arabia is pushing for an output cut of 1 million to 1.4 million bpd to avoid oversupply, according to Reuters. The OPEC meeting is expected to reach a decision for the next six months. Meanwhile, Iran’s Far News agency reported that Iran and China have solved the oil payments issue. China will start oil imports from Iran next week and payment will be made within a month. Washington has granted Beijing a sanctions waiver so it can continue its crude imports of around 360K bpd from Iran.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,244 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 51.20-52.00 52.80 53.30-54.05
EURO/USD 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2855-1.2900 1.2950 1.3000
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 50.10-49.60 49.00 48.50
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1300 1.1260 1.1205-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.2810-1.2760 1.2700 1.2660-1.260
USD/JPY 113.00 112.10 111.50-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1226.55/oz and low of US$1211.14/oz. Gold up by 0.489% at US$1220.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260, targeting 1221-1214-1200 and 1195-1189. Buy above 1221-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1230-1238-1244 and 1250-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,244
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.327

Buy
20-DMA   1220.01 Sell
50-DMA  

1214.92

Sell
100-DMA   1211.02 Sell
200-DMA   1258.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.8668 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.232 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.29/oz and low of US$14.08/oz. Silver settled down by 1.133% at US$14.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.10-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.641 Buy
20-DMA   14.33 Sell
50-DMA   14.44 Sell
100-DMA   14.66 Sell
200-DMA   15.55 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.127 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$52.40/bbl, intraday low of US$52.40/bbl and settled up by 1.008% to close at US$52.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.20-54.05 with stop loss at 54.05; targeting 50.20-49.60 and 49.00-48.50. Buy above 50.10-48.00 with risk daily closing below 49.60 and targeting 50.10-49.60 and 49.00-48.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10-49.60
S2     49.00
S3     48.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.20-52.00
R2     52.80
R3     53.30-54.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.8733 Sell
20-DMA   56.43 Buy
50-DMA   64.97 Buy
100-DMA   66.50 Buy
200-DMA   66.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.428 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.052 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1266/EUR, high of US$1.1386/EUR and settled the day up by 0.726% to close at US$1.1365/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1350-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350-1.1300
S2     1.1260
S3     1.1205-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430
R2     1.1500-1.1560
R3     1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.057 Buy
20-DMA   1.1393 Buy
50-DMA   1.1456 Sell
100-DMA   1.1531 Sell
200-DMA   1.1766 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   46.877 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2729/GBP, high of US$1.2846/GBP and settled the day up by 0.635% to close at US$1.2822/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2855-1.3000 with targets at 1.2800-1.2710 and 1.2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2810-1.2600 with targets 1.2855-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2810-1.2760
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660-1.260

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2855-1.2900
R2     1.2950
R3     1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.630

Buy
20-DMA   1.2897 Buy
50-DMA   1.2974 Buy
100-DMA   1.2974 Buy
200-DMA   1.3319 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.063 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.43/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.03/USD and settled the day down by 0.087% at JPY113.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.10 and 111.50-111.20. Long positions above 113.50-110.70 with targets of 114.00-114.70 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.208 Buy
20-DMA   113.34 Sell
50-DMA   113.02 Sell
100-DMA   112.20 Buy
200-DMA   110.35 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   95.140 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

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