AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares wavered on Friday as investors were on edge before a crucial weekend meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents that could determine the course of a heated trade war over the next year. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan wobbled between positive and negative territory in early trade, as more evidence of a slowdown in China dampened sentiment. It was last up less than 0.1 percent and has risen 2.7% for the week so far, largely reflecting a rebound from a recent steep sell-off. Chinese blue-chips advanced 0.5% despite a survey showing China's factory growth stalled for the first time in more than two years in November. The weak manufacturing growth reinforced expectations that Beijing will roll out more economic support measures - a factor that has helped to prop up battered Chinese stocks recently. Investor attention is now squarely focused on planned talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart over the weekend on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina. Adding to apprehension ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting were comments from a U.S. official, who said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who has advocated a tougher trade stance with China, would attend. The mixed signals from Washington about the prospects for a rapprochement with China on trade kept investors on the sidelines. Minutes of the latest Fed policy meeting showed that almost all officials agreed another interest rate increase was "likely to be warranted fairly soon," but opened debate on when to pause further hikes and how to relay those plans to the public. The minutes follow comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week that some took as indicating a dovish shift.
  • The dollar trod water in nervous trade on Friday ahead of a meeting of U.S. and Chinese leaders that might, or might not, lead to a truce in the Sino-U.S. trade war, which would boost emerging market currencies at the expense of safe havens. The greenback has been under pressure this week on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow down its pace of monetary tightening, a view reinforced by comments on Wednesday from Chairman Jerome Powell. Despite the dovish comments from Fed officials, there was no large scale dollar sell-off, partly due to the strength of the U.S. economy, weakening growth elsewhere, and dollar's own status as a safe haven amid the Sino-U.S. trade war. The focus is now on a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires between Nov. 30-Dec. 1. Trump kept markets nervous by sending mixed signals on Thursday about the prospects for a trade deal with Xi. Trump has said he plans to significantly hike the existing 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports by January next year, which would sharply escalate the trade war between the economic heavyweights. China's economy is already under pressure, with a survey earlier on Friday showing its vast manufacturing sector growth stalled for the first time in over two years in November as new orders shrank Apart from U.S.-Sino trade talks, the markets would also be focusing on whether OPEC and Russia agree on oil production cuts next week. A meaningful rebound in crude prices can be beneficial for commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone according to Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist at CMC Markets. Dollar investors were also carefully watching for any changes in U.S. monetary policy. Overnight, minutes from the Fed's Nov. 7-8 meeting indicated that another interest rate hike is warranted. But Fed officials also kept the debate open on when the U.S. central bank might pause its monetary tightening and how it would relay those plans to the public. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, which would be the fourth hike for the year. On Wednesday, Powell said the Fed's policy rate is now "just below" estimates of a neutral rate, which investors interpreted as a signal the Fed's three-year tightening cycle is drawing to a close. However, some analysts think that the market may be underestimating the number of times the Fed can hike rates next year.
  • Oil prices inched up Friday morning in Asia as major producer Russia reportedly agreed on the need to slash output ahead of an OPEC meeting next week in Vienna. Russia might be changing its wait-and-see approach and be ready to join Saudi Arabia to cut crude output, Reuters reported. The two countries will meet with other OPEC members in Austria on Dec. 6-7 to reach a decision on output for the next six months. The kingdom has proposed cutting output by 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to avoid excessive supply. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Argentina at the G20 summit. Reuters reported that Putin said on Wednesday that Russia was in touch with the OPEC but it would be satisfied with an oil price of $60 a barrel, while the kingdom’s energy minister also said it will not slash oil output on its own. Saudi Arabia’s proposal came after it raised output to compensate for an expected all in supply from Iran as a result of U.S. sanctions. However, Washington granted waivers to eight countries to continue importing oil from Iran. The kingdom is now pushing OPEC to cut output in fear of a global glut. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to further reduce oil prices by urging producers to raise output. He is expected to discuss oil prices with both Saudi Arabia and Russia at the G20 summit.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th November 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,230-1,238 1,244 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 52.00 52.80 53.30-54.05
EURO/USD 1.1430 1.1500-1.1560 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2810 1.2855-1.2900 1.2950
USD/JPY 114.00 114.70-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th November 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,214 1,207 1,200-1,195
Silver-XAG 14.30-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 51.20 50.10-49.60 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1300 1.1260 1.1205-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.2760 1.2700 1.2660-1.2600
USD/JPY 113.00 112.10 111.50-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th November 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1228.91/oz and low of US$1220.37/oz. Gold up by 0.303% at US$1220.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1228) and breakage above will call for 1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1230-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260, targeting 1221-1214-1200 and 1195-1189. Buy above 1221-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1230-1238-1244 and 1250-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,214
S2     1,207
S3     1,200-1,195
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,230-1,238
R2     1,244
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.327

Buy
20-DMA   1220.01 Sell
50-DMA  

1214.92

Sell
100-DMA   1211.02 Sell
200-DMA   1258.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.8668 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.232 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.37/oz and low of US$14.25/oz. Silver settled up by 0.070% at US$14.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (15.45), breakage above will lead to16.05-16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.10-12.40 targeting 14.30-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.30-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.641 Buy
20-DMA   14.33 Sell
50-DMA   14.44 Sell
100-DMA   14.66 Sell
200-DMA   15.55 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.127 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$52.23/bbl, intraday low of US$49.50/bbl and settled up by 1.866% to close at US$51.30/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.00-54.05 with stop loss at 54.05; targeting 51.20-50.20-49.60 and 49.00-48.50. Buy above 51.20-48.00 with risk daily closing below 48.60 and targeting 50.10-49.60 and 49.00-48.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.20
S2     50.10-49.60
S3     49.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.00
R2     52.80
R3     53.30-54.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.245 Sell
20-DMA   55.90 Buy
50-DMA   64.60 Buy
100-DMA   66.32 Buy
200-DMA   66.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.428 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.875 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1266/EUR, high of US$1.1400/EUR and settled the day up by 0.237% to close at US$1.1392/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1621), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1690-1.1730. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1430-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1350-1.1620 targeting 1.1350-1.1300-1.1260 and 1.1160-1.1100 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1620.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350-1.1300
S2     1.1260
S3     1.1205-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1430
R2     1.1500-1.1560
R3     1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.057 Buy
20-DMA   1.1393 Buy
50-DMA   1.1456 Sell
100-DMA   1.1531 Sell
200-DMA   1.1766 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   46.877 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2754/GBP, high of US$1.2848/GBP and settled the day down by 0.296% to close at US$1.2784/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2810-1.3000 with targets at 1.2800-1.2710 and 1.2660-1.2600. Buy above 1.2760-1.2600 with targets 1.2855-1.2900 and 1.3000-1.3050 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2760
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2660-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2810
R2     1.2855-1.2900
R3     1.2950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.137

Buy
20-DMA   1.2894 Buy
50-DMA   1.2973 Buy
100-DMA   1.2979 Buy
200-DMA   1.3318 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.086 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.67/USD and settled the day down by 0.167% at JPY113.47/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.10 and 111.50-111.20. Long positions above 113.50-110.70 with targets of 114.00-114.70 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.70-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.208 Buy
20-DMA   113.34 Sell
50-DMA   113.02 Sell
100-DMA   112.20 Buy
200-DMA   110.35 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   95.140 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.087 Sell

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