AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were subdued on Monday as investors fretted that political instability in the United States was leaving the country rudderless at a time when the global economy was showing signs of faltering. U.S. President Donald Trump's budget director and chief of staff on Sunday said the partial U.S. government shutdown could continue into January, when the new Congress convenes and Democrats take over the House of Representatives. Trump on Sunday said he was replacing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis two months early, a move officials said was driven by the president's anger at Mattis' resignation letter and its rebuke of his foreign policy. Sources also told Reuters Trump has privately discussed the possibility of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a move that would likely roil financial markets. The political uncertainty has only added to the air of risk aversion, punishing equities to the benefit of bonds.
  • The euro and the Japanese yen gained in thin trading on Monday as concerns about a partial U.S. government shutdown weighed on investor sentiment and the dollar, although Chinese plans to cut tariffs on a range of goods helped to lift the mood. Trading volumes were thinning out with most global markets set to shut for Christmas, while Japan was closed on Monday for a holiday. After a bruising few weeks in which worries about spluttering global growth have knocked markets lower, investors were reluctant to take on many new risks at the end of the year. A less dovish than expected Federal Reserve meeting also heightened fears the U.S. central bank will be raising interest rates into a weakening U.S. economy. A partial U.S. government shutdown, which could continue to Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes and Democrats take over the House of Representatives, has also contributed to the souring of risk sentiment. There was some improvement in the mood, however, after China unveiled plans to remove import and export tariffs in 2019 on a range of goods, soothing fears about an ongoing trade dispute between Chin and the United States. Sterling rose 0.3 percent versus the dollar to $1.2671 , although Tan at Societe Generale noted the recent recovery in the pound was more to do with dollar weakness than more positive sentiment towards the British currency. The U.S. dollar was lower on Monday, starting the week on the backfoot as sentiment in financial markets remained fragile on heightened worries over political instability in the United States. Trading volumes were thinning out with most global markets set to shut for Christmas. U.S. markets close early Monday, Christmas Eve, and are shut Tuesday for Christmas Day. Market focus will stay attuned to developments out of Washington DC after the failure by the U.S. Congress and President Donald Trump to agree to a spending bill by midnight Saturday resulted in a partial U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, reports that President Trump suggested firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move that could roil already volatile financial markets, will also be in focus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tweeted late Saturday that Trump had told him that never suggested dismissing the Fed chief. The U.S. central bank lifted rates for the fourth time this year last week and kept most of its guidance for additional hikes over the next two years, drawing the ire of Trump, who has repeatedly attacked the Fed's tightening as damaging to the economy.
  • Oil prices edged up on Monday after evidence that a recent fall to 15-month lows may be affecting output in the United States, the world's largest producer, although concern about the outlook for demand tempered gains. The price drop has caused U.S. shale oil producers to curtail drilling plans for next year. The boom in shale output has made the United States the world's largest oil producer, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia. Physical prices for Brent have also fallen in the last six weeks, driven by a drop in demand from Chinese refiners in particular, which has weighed on the value of barrels of anything from North Sea to Nigerian crude. The trade dispute between the United States and China and the prospect of a rapid rise in U.S. interest rates have brought global stocks down from this year's record highs and ignited concern that oil demand will be insufficient to soak up any excess supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia agreed this month to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day from January.
  • Should that fail to balance the market, OPEC and its allies will hold an extraordinary meeting, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Sunday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th December 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,266-1,274 1,282 1.289
Silver-XAG 14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 46.00-46.50 47.20 48.10-49.00
EURO/USD 1.1400-1.1450 1.1490 1.1560-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2760 1.2850-1.2900
USD/JPY 111.50-112.10 112.70 113.50-114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th December 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,253-1,244 1,238
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.00 13.61 13.00-12.40
Crude Oil 45.50-45.10 44.50 43.90-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1300-1.1260 1.1210
GBP/USD 1.2660-1.2600 1.2550 1.2490-1.2430
USD/JPY 111.00-110.20 109.60 109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th December 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1262.68/oz and low of US$1253.86/oz. Gold up by 0.323% at US$1255.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1255) and breakage above will call for 1266-1274. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1266-1289 keeping stop loss closing above 1289, targeting 1260-1253-1244 and 1236-1230. Buy above 1260-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1266-1274 and 1282-1289.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,253-1,244
S3     1,238
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,266-1,274
R2     1,282
R3     1.289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.683

Buy
20-DMA   1240.05 Buy
50-DMA  

1229.77

Buy
100-DMA   1214.37 Buy
200-DMA   1251.90 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.405 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.783 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.78/oz and low of US$14.59/oz. Silver settled down by 1.029% at US$14.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above100DMA (14.55), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-12.40 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 12.40. Sell below 14.80-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 13.90-13.50 and 13.00-12.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.40-14.00
S2     13.61
S3     13.00-12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.762 Buy
20-DMA   14.41 Buy
50-DMA   14.45 Buy
100-DMA   14.55 Sell
200-DMA   15.45 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.708 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.065 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$46.78/bbl, intraday low of US$45.70/bbl and settled down by 2.428% to close at US$45.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.00-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.50-45.10 and 44.50-43.90-43.00. Buy above 45.50-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.00-46.50-47.20 and 48.10-49.00-49.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.50-45.10
S2     44.50
S3     43.90-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.00-46.50
R2     47.20
R3     48.10-49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.683 Sell
20-DMA   50.34 Buy
50-DMA   57.21 Buy
100-DMA   63.45 Buy
200-DMA   65.68 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.525 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.981 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1355/EUR, high of US$1.1473/EUR and settled the day down by 0.655% to close at US$1.1369/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1480), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1210 with risk below 1.1210, targeting 1.1400-1.1450-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1400-1.1600 targeting 1.1350-1.1300 and 1.1260-1.1210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1300-1.1260
S3     1.1210

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400-1.1450
R2     1.1490
R3     1.1560-1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.44051.546 Buy
20-DMA   1.1356 Buy
50-DMA   1.1376 Sell
100-DMA   1.1480 Sell
200-DMA   1.1685 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.8155 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2616/GBP, high of US$1.2696/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0632% to close at US$1.2644/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2900 with targets at 1.2660-1.2600-1.2550 and 1.2490-1.2430. Buy above 1.2660-1.2360 with targets 1.2700-1.2760 and 1.2850-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2660-1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2490-1.2430

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2850-1.2900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.228

Buy
20-DMA   1.2729 Buy
50-DMA   1.2885 Buy
100-DMA   1.2928 Buy
200-DMA   1.3253 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.144 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.92/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.45/USD and settled the day down by 0.017% at JPY111.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 111.00-110.20 and 109.60-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.00 with targets of 111.50-112.10-112.70 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.20
S2     109.60
S3     109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.10
R2     112.70
R3     113.50-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.645 Buy
20-DMA   112.88 Sell
50-DMA   112.93 Sell
100-DMA   112.39 Buy
200-DMA   110.92 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   15.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.410 Sell

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