AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares on Thursday rode a dramatic surge on Wall Street as markets, hammered by a recent drum roll of deepening political and economic gloom, cheered upbeat U.S. data and the Trump administration's effort to shore up investor confidence. In a buying frenzy that was as spectacular as the recent rout, U.S. stocks soared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketing more than 1,000 points for the first time on Wednesday. That helped push MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.8 percent and away from eight-week lows. There were also some attempts by the White House to temper its broadside against the Federal Reserve. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on Wednesday that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's job was not in jeopardy. His comments came days after President Donald Trump described the Fed as the "only problem" in the U.S. economy after the central bank last week raised rates for the fourth time this year, and retained plans for more hikes in 2019. A U.S. government shutdown, concerns over slower global growth and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin convening a crisis group following the sharp sell-off in equities have also rattled investors. Faced with deepening gloom, investors were quick to lap up media reports that a U.S. trade team will travel to Beijing the week of Jan. 7 to hold talks with Chinese officials. Not all signs were positive overnight, with the Fed's Bank of Richmond's manufacturing index giving investors a reminder of the underlying global risks. The index fell the most on record, Refinitiv data going back to 1994 showed. The weak figures rekindled fears that Sino-U.S. trade tensions are weighing on U.S. producers, and came days before the release of the Chicago purchasing managers index at the end of the week after the overnight rally, E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were last down 0.3 percent.
  • The dollar retained most of its overnight gains on Thursday but was off its peak for the week so far amid thin volumes, as signs of easing trade tensions and strong U.S. economic data sent Wall Street stocks and Treasury yields higher. The swing higher in bond yields supported the greenback, which has been under pressure over the past couple of weeks following a decline in yields, which was driven by heightened concerns about slowing economic growth, and - more recently - a partial U.S. government shutdown. nvestors on Wednesday were quick to latch on to media reports that a U.S. trade team will travel to Beijing the week of Jan. 7 to hold talks with Chinese officials. Markets also lapped up data showing U.S. 2018 holiday sales rose 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years. Another factor lifting market sentiment was easing tensions between the White House and the U.S. central bank. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's job was "100 percent" safe. Last week, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the fourth time this year, and largely kept to its plans to hike rates next year despite heightened economic risks which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to step up his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump blasted the Fed on Monday, describing it as the "only problem" for the U.S. economy and stoked speculation he might fire Mr. Powell, whom he picked for the top Fed job last year. The single currency is set to end the year lower by 5 percent as weak economic fundamentals in Europe, political tensions in France and Italy and a dovish European Central Bank had made investors favor the dollar over the euro in 2018. U.S. equities rebounded on Wednesday as easing tensions between the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted market sentiment. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's job was "100 percent" safe and that Trump won’t try to fire him. Last week, the Federal Reserve hiked rates for the fourth time this year and reports suggested Trump was discussing the possibilities with his advisors whether he has the authority to fire Powell.
  • Oil fell on Thursday after soaring 8 percent in the previous session, as worries over a glut in crude supply and concerns over a faltering global economy pressured prices even as a stock market surge offered support. Global stocks rebounded on Wednesday on the back of the Trump administration's attempt to shore up investor confidence and a report on strong U.S. holiday spending. [MKTS/GLOB The OPEC and its allies including Russia, agreed at a meeting earlier this month to limit output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in January. Oil production has been at or near records highs in the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. pumping 11.6 million bpd of crude, more than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Although U.S. sanctions have put a cap on Iran's oil sales, Tehran said on Wednesday that its private exporters have had "no problems" selling its oil and that 3 million barrels could be sold soon to non-government traders. Meanwhile, potentially bolstering oil prices, a preliminary Reuters poll on Wednesday forecast that U.S. crude inventories would drop 2.7 million barrels in the week to Dec. 21, marking their fourth straight week fall. The American Petroleum Institute's (API) inventory data is due on Thursday, while the government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its report on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th December 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,274-1,282 1.289 1,300
Silver-XAG 15.60 15.60 16.40
Crude Oil 47.00-47.60 48.40 49.00-49.90
EURO/USD 1.1400-1.1450 1.1490 1.1560-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2660-1.2700 1.2760 1.2800-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00 111.50-112.10 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th December 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,266-1,260 1,253 1,244-1,238
Silver-XAG 14.75-14.40 14.00 13.61-13.00
Crude Oil 45.50-45.10 44.50 43.90-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1300 1.1260-1.1210
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2550 1.2490 1.2440
USD/JPY 110.20-109.60 109.00 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (27th December 2018)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1279.03/oz and low of US$1264.59/oz. Gold down by 0.272% at US$1266.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1266-1236 with risk below 1236, targeting 1274-1282 and 1289-1300. Sell below 1274-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300, targeting 1266-1260-1253 and 1244-1236.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,266-1,260
S2     1,253
S3     1,244-1,238
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,274-1,282
R2     1.289
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.057

Buy
20-DMA   1242.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1230.73

Buy
100-DMA   1214.99 Buy
200-DMA   1251.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.002 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   9.975 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.15/oz and low of US$14.79/oz. Silver settled up by 1.159% at US$15.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above100DMA (14.55), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.75-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.90-16.40 with stop loss above 16.40; targeting 14.75-14.40-13.90 and 13.50-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.75-14.40
S2     14.00
S3     13.61-13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     15.60
R3     16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.943 Buy
20-DMA   14.59 Buy
50-DMA   14.48 Buy
100-DMA   14.49 Sell
200-DMA   15.38 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.180 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$47.04 /bbl, intraday low of US$42.60/bbl and settled up by 8.944% to close at US$46.65/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 47.00-49.90 with stop loss at 49.90; targeting 45.50-45.10 and 44.50-43.90-43.00. Buy above 45.50-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.50-47.20 and 48.10-49.00-49.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.50-45.10
S2     44.50
S3     43.90-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.00-47.60
R2     48.40
R3     49.00-49.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.419 Sell
20-DMA   49.70 Sell
50-DMA   56.16 Sell
100-DMA   63.00 Sell
200-DMA   65.50 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.049 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.373 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1342/EUR, high of US$1.1414/EUR and settled the day down by 0.543% to close at US$1.1315/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1480), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1350-1.1210 with risk below 1.1210, targeting 1.1400-1.1450-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1400-1.1600 targeting 1.1350-1.1300 and 1.1260-1.1210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260-1.1210

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400-1.1450
R2     1.1490
R3     1.1560-1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.067 Buy
20-DMA   1.1364 Buy
50-DMA   1.1374 Sell
100-DMA   1.1479 Sell
200-DMA   1.1680 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.8155 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2630/GBP, high of US$1.2713/GBP and settled the day down by 0.582% to close at US$1.2631/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2660-1.2900 with targets at 1.2650-1.2600 and 1.2550-1.2490. Buy above 1.2600-1.2360 with targets 1.2760-1.2800 and 1.2850-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2600-1.2550
S2     1.2490
S3     1.2440

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2660-1.2700
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2800-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.693

Buy
20-DMA   1.2663 Sell
50-DMA   1.2803 Sell
100-DMA   1.2890 Sell
200-DMA   1.3199 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   43.611 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.40/USD and settled the day down by 0.860% at JPY111.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 111.00-110.20 and 109.60-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.00 with targets of 111.50-112.10-112.70 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.20-109.60
S2     109.00
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.50-112.10
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.523 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Sell
50-DMA   112.88 Sell
100-DMA   112.37 Buy
200-DMA   110.94 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   9.356 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.410 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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