AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asia stocks advanced on Friday after Wall Street ended volatile trade in positive territory, adding to the previous session's big gains, although lingering investor jitters helped support safe-haven currencies such as the yen. The gains come a day after Wall Street indexes posted their biggest daily percentage increases in nearly a decade following a sharp plunge at the week's start. However, all three U.S. major indexes remain down more than 9 percent for December following losses earlier in the month, when factors including concerns over the U.S.-China trade war, slowing global growth and wariness toward the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle took a heavy toll. Focus turned to the Fed's stance and whether the equity markets can sustain their recovery at the start of the new year. Fed Chairman Powell is due to give a speech on Jan. 4. While stocks showed signs of recovery, lingering market volatility helped keep safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc in demand. The yield had climbed to a seven-year peak of 3.26 percent in October when the debt market had braced for potentially faster pace of Fed rate hikes in 2019. Crude has lost more than one-third of its value since the beginning of October and is heading for declines of more than 20 percent in 2018. In addition to oversupply concerns, worries about slowing global economic growth have dampened investor demand for riskier asset classes and pressured crude.
  • The safe-haven yen rose on Friday in Asia following reports that U.S. President Trump is considering to ban U.S. companies from using equipment made by China’s Huawei and ZTE. The news came one day after Bloomberg said China and U.S. are set to resume trade talks in early January. Washington and Beijing earlier this month agreed to a 90-day ceasefire in their tariff dispute. On Thursday, official data showed China’s industrial profits fell for the first time since December 2015. The decline was due to slowing growth in sales and producer prices, and rising costs, He ping of the statistics bureau said in a statement accompanying the data, while analysts noted rising trade tensions with the United States also piled pressure on China’s economic growth.
  • Gold prices edged up on Friday in Asia as the safe-haven asset was supported by worries over economic growth and renewed China-U.S. tensions. Meanwhile, a measure of U.S. consumer confidence posted its sharpest decline in more than three years in December, as investors remain concerned that a global economic slowdown was spilling over into the United States. On Thursday, official data showed China’s industrial profits fell for the first time since December 2015. The decline was due to slowing growth in sales and producer prices, and rising costs, He ping of the statistics bureau said in a statement accompanying the data, while analysts noted rising trade tensions with the United States also piled pressure on China’s economic growth.
  • Oil prices jumped on Friday in Asia after falling to their lowest in more than a year in the previous session amid worries on the global economy. Oil prices were down as much as 4% on Thursday following a turbulent session on the Wall Street that saw the Dow plunge more than 600 points at one point. Faced with oversupplies from record high U.S., Saudi and Russian production, OPEC pledged on Dec. 7 to cut 1.2 million barrels per day in global oil output over the next six months under its enlarged OPEC+ pact that does not include the United States. However, in the three weeks since that announcement, oil prices have only fallen further, hitting 18-month lows, as fears of a global economic slowdown and the possibility of a protracted U.S. government shutdown added to concerns. In other news, U.S. crude inventories for the week to Dec. 21 rose by 6.9 million barrels to 448.2 million barrels on increased refinery output, according to data released on Thursday by industry group the American Petroleum Institute. The United States has emerged as the world's biggest crude producer, pumping 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd), more than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that rising protectionism and the unpredictability of the U.S. administration had greatly contributed to global oil price volatility over the past two years. Novak also said Russia would cut its crude output by between 3 and 5 million tonnes in the first half of 2019 as part of a deal between producers Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, agreed to curb output by 1.2 million bpd starting in January in a bid to clear a supply overhang and prop up prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th December 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,282-1.289 1,300 1,309
Silver-XAG 15.40-15.60 16.00 16.40
Crude Oil 47.00-47.60 48.40 49.00-49.90
EURO/USD 1.1460 1.1490 1.1560-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2760 1.2800-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00 111.50-112.10 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th December 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274 1,253 1,253
Silver-XAG 15.10-14.90 14.75 14.40-14.00
Crude Oil 45.50-45.10 44.50 43.90-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1400-1.1350 1.1300 1.1260-1.1210
GBP/USD 1.2660 1.2600-1.2550 1.2490
USD/JPY 110.20-109.60 109.00 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (28th December 2018)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1278.90/oz and low of US$1264.59/oz. Gold down by 0.692% at US$1275.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1274-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1282-1289 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1274-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1300, targeting 1274-1266-1260 and 1253- 1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274
S2     1,253
S3     1,253
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,282-1.289
R2     1,300
R3     1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

72.115

Buy
20-DMA   1248.47 Buy
50-DMA  

1232.89

Buy
100-DMA   1216.28 Buy
200-DMA   1251.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.002 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.253 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.25/oz and low of US$14.92/oz. Silver settled up by 1.334% at US$15.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above100DMA (14.50), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.10-14.00 targeting 15.40-15.60 and 16.00-16.40.; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.40-16.40 with stop loss above 16.40; targeting 15.10-14.90-14.75 14.40-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.10-14.90
S2     14.75
S3     14.40-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.40-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.401 Buy
20-DMA   14.65 Buy
50-DMA   14.50 Buy
100-DMA   14.49 Buy
200-DMA   15.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.330 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.174 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$46.76/bbl, intraday low of US$44.42/bbl and settled down by 2.63% to close at US$45.45/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 47.00-49.90 with stop loss at 49.90; targeting 45.50-45.10 and 44.50-43.90-43.00. Buy above 45.50-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.50-47.20 and 48.10-49.00-49.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.50-45.10
S2     44.50
S3     43.90-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.00-47.60
R2     48.40
R3     49.00-49.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.419 Sell
20-DMA   49.70 Sell
50-DMA   56.16 Sell
100-DMA   63.00 Sell
200-DMA   65.50 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.049 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.373 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1350/EUR, high of US$1.1453/EUR and settled the day up by 0.678% to close at US$1.1428/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1480), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1400-1.1210 with risk below 1.1210, targeting 1.1460-1.1490 and 1.1540-1.1610. Sell below 1.1460-1.1600 targeting 1.1400-1.1350-1.1300 and 1.1260-1.1210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1400-1.1350
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1260-1.1210

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1460
R2     1.1490
R3     1.1560-1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.067 Buy
20-DMA   1.1364 Buy
50-DMA   1.1374 Sell
100-DMA   1.1479 Sell
200-DMA   1.1680 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.8155 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2615/GBP, high of US$1.2674/GBP and settled the day up by 0.079% to close at US$1.2615/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2660-1.2900 with targets at 1.2600-1.2600 and 1.2550-1.2490. Buy above 1.2660-1.2490 with targets 1.2700-1.2760-1.2800 and 1.2850-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2490.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2660
S2     1.2600-1.2550
S3     1.2490

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2800-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.693

Buy
20-DMA   1.2663 Sell
50-DMA   1.2803 Sell
100-DMA   1.2890 Sell
200-DMA   1.3199 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   43.611 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.45/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.35/USD and settled the day down by 0.341% at JPY110.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 111.00-110.20 and 109.60-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.00 with targets of 111.50-112.10-112.70 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.20-109.60
S2     109.00
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.50-112.10
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.162 Buy
20-DMA   112.44 Sell
50-DMA   112.83 Sell
100-DMA   112.37 Buy
200-DMA   110.99 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   34.356 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.410 Sell

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