AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was little changed on Friday in Asia after trading slightly higher earlier in the day amid optimism of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks. Citing people with knowledge to the matter, the Wall Street Journal said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is a proponent of easing tariffs on Chinese products. The report sent U.S. stocks higher overnight, even after the Treasury Department quickly denied the news. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the U.S. later this month for another round of trade talks. Separately, jobless claims data showed on Thursday that the U.S. government shutdown has yet to have an impact on jobs. The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. hit its lowest level in five weeks, despite 27 days of a government shutdown which has furloughed 800,000 federal workers. China’s statistics bureau on Friday revised down its final 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.8% from the previous 6.9% The revision came ahead of Monday’s release of preliminary GDP growth figures for the latest quarter and full-year 2018. Sources have told Reuters earlier that Beijing is considering setting a lower economic growth target of 6-6.5% in 2019. According to Bloomberg, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy watchers expect the BoJ to remain virtually unchanged through 2019 as weakening inflation keeps the BoJ understated. All but one of 50 economists said they expect the BOJ to stand pat as it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Jan. 23, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted Jan. 10-15. The outlook for Japan’s growth and inflation this year has dimmed amid signs of slowing global growth, including in China. The U.S.-China trade war poses a risk to Japan’s export-dependent economy, as does a stronger yen. The currency, seen as a haven asset, has surged in recent weeks as investors sought shelter from market turmoil.
  • The greenback was steady on Thursday as jobless claims data showed the government shutdown has yet to have an impact on jobs. The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. hit its lowest level in five weeks, despite 27 days of a government shutdown which has furloughed 800,000 federal workers. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.11% to 95.77 as of 10:16 AM ET (15:16 GMT). The currency remain subdued after recent comments by Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rates are unlikely in the next few months. The Fed will hold its next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 29-30. The yen, typically sought by investors as a safe haven during times of economic or market stress, was a touch lower against the dollar, with USD/JPY slipping 0.13% to 108.92.
  • Crude markets are finding some more lift on Friday with WTI barrels ticking up into 52.75 on rising market confidence to cap off a restrained trading week. Various US energy reserves, from crude stockpiles to gasoline buildups, continue to flip back and forth between new stockpile highs under record US production, which tipped the scales at 11.9 million barrels per day, and frequent downside swings as demand eats away at supply, but the overall trend continues to lean into overproduction. OPEC+ production cuts continue to remain a key bolstering factor for energy markets, but further moves to the upside will require a continued improving in overall market sentiment to keep pushing commodity prices higher. Crude prices continue to price in a bullish correction from late December's bottoms, but the current upmove will need to mount January 11th's peaks near 53.30 before oil markets can officially start a new leg higher, while bearish pressure from further US supply buildups or a resurgence in US-China trade tensions will see broader markets head lower once again, taking commodities with it.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th January 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,309 1,315 1,322
Silver-XAG 15.60-15.80 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 53.00 53.50-54.00 54.80
EURO/USD 1.1420-1.1460 1.1490 1.1560-1.1590
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.3050 1.3100 1.3145-1.3180
USD/JPY 109.50-109.80 110.20 111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th January 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1.289-1,282 1,274 1,266-1,260
Silver-XAG 15.40 15.10 14.90-14.75
Crude Oil 52.70-51.70 51.00 50.20-49.50
EURO/USD 1.1380-1.1340 1.1305 1.1265
GBP/USD 1.2940-1.2900 1.2850 1.2800-1.2750
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 108.50-108.00 107.50

Intra-Day Strategy (18th January 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1295.28/oz and low of US$1288.69/oz. Gold down by 0.132% at US$1291.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1289-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1300-1309 and 1315-1324. Sell below 1300-1324 keeping stop loss closing above 1324, targeting 1289-1284-1274 and 1266-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.289-1,282
S2     1,274
S3     1,266-1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300-1,309
R2     1,315
R3     1,322

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.243

Buy
20-DMA   1279.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.56

Buy
100-DMA   1228.62 Buy
200-DMA   1248.16 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.971 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.383 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.60/oz and low of US$15.44/oz. Silver settled down by 0.500% at US$15.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above100DMA (14.50), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.40-14.75 targeting 15.60-15.80-16.00 and 16.40-16.80.; stop breakage below 14.75. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.40-15.10-14.90 and 14.75 14.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.40
S2     15.10
S3     14.90-14.75

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-15.80
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.146 Buy
20-DMA   15.34 Buy
50-DMA   14.77 Buy
100-DMA   14.60 Buy
200-DMA   15.36 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.852 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.249 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$52.86/bbl, intraday low of US$51.27/bbl and settled down by 0.190% to close at US$52.45/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-54.80 with stop loss at 54.80; targeting 52.70-51.70-51.00 and 50.20-49.50. Buy above 52.70-49.00 with risk daily closing below 49.00 and targeting 53.00-53.50 and 54.00-54.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.70-51.70
S2     51.00
S3     50.20-49.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00
R2     53.50-54.00
R3     54.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.158 Sell
20-DMA   48.78 Sell
50-DMA   51.43 Sell
100-DMA   60.46 Sell
200-DMA   64.41 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.236 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1369/EUR, high of US$1.1405/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0175% to close at US$1.1388/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1475), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1390-1.1265 with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1420-1.1490-1.1560 and 1.1620-1.1660. Sell below 1.1420-1.1590 targeting 1.1390-1.1345 and 1.1305-1.1265 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1590.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1380-1.1340
S2     1.1305
S3     1.1265

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1420-1.1460
R2     1.1490
R3     1.1560-1.1590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.387 Buy
20-DMA   1.1415 Buy
50-DMA   1.1380 Sell
100-DMA   1.1475 Sell
200-DMA   1.1628 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.257 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0032 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2831/GBP, high of US$1.3001/GBP and settled the day up by 0.814% to close at US$1.2984/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3000-1.3180 with targets at 1.2940-1.2900-1.2850 and 1.2800-1.2700-1.2750. Buy above 1.2940-1.2750 with targets 1.3010-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3145-1.3180 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2940-1.2900
S2     1.2850
S3     1.2800-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3010-1.3050
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3145-1.3180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.412

Buy
20-DMA   1.2753 Sell
50-DMA   1.2758 Sell
100-DMA   1.2893 Sell
200-DMA   1.3101 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.636 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.39/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.39/USD and settled the day up by 0.155% at JPY109.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.10-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-108.10-107.70 and 107.05-106.60. Long positions above 108.50-106.60 with targets of 109.10-109.60 and 110.20-111.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     108.50-108.00
S3     107.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-109.80
R2     110.20
R3     111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.753 Buy
20-DMA   109.35 Sell
50-DMA   111.69 Sell
100-DMA   112.07 Buy
200-DMA   111.15 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.250 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.213 Sell

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