AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was hamstrung versus its rivals on Thursday, restrained by concerns over global growth, the U.S. government shutdown and a yet-unresolved U.S.-Sino trade dispute. The partial U.S. government shutdown, now in its 34th day has hurt investor sentiment. U.S. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he planned to hold a vote on Thursday on a Democratic proposal that would fund the government for three weeks. Global growth concerns have also rattled investor appetite for risk. On Monday, the IMF cut its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts, citing a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China and the eurozone, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged. The BOJ cut its inflation forecasts and warned of growing risks to the economy from trade protectionism and slowing global demand. Markets are bearish on the outlook for the dollar this year. Traders in interest rate futures are wagering that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on rates in 2019 in the face of growth risks both at home and globally All eyes will be on the euro as investors await the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement later on Thursday where it is all but certain to keep policy unchanged. The single currency was marginally higher at $1.1383. The euro has lost around 1.6 percent of its value over the last two weeks as traders expect the ECB to remain dovish and keep monetary policy accommodative for an extended period of time. Low inflation as well as weaker-than-expected economic activity in Germany and France, however, may lead ECB President Mario Draghi to point toward a potentially longer lasting slowdown. Since Prime Minister Theresa May's divorce deal with the EU was rejected by lawmakers last week in the biggest defeat in modern British history, lawmakers have been trying to plot a course out of the crisis, yet no option has the majority support of parliament.
  • Asian shares inched up in subdued trade on Thursday after Wall Street ended higher, but political uncertainty in the United States and worries about weakening global economic growth kept many investors on the sidelines. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in a CNN interview the U.S. economy could see zero growth in the first three months if the partial government shutdown lasts for the whole quarter. Japan's manufacturing growth stalled in January as export orders fell at the fastest pace in 2-1/2 years, a preliminary business survey showed Thursday, offering the latest sign of slower growth hitting a major developed economy. More companies warned of weakening demand in China, including South Korea's SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660), the world's second-biggest memory chipmaker, and Hyundai Motor. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States was doing well in trade talks with China, saying that China "very much wants to make a deal. But sources familiar with the talks say the two sides are still far apart on key, structural elements critical for a deal. The ECB is widely expected to stay on hold at a policy meeting that ends later on Thursday, but may acknowledge a sharp slowdown in growth, raising the prospect that any further policy normalization could be delayed. The ECB's meeting will come a day after the Bank of Japan cut its inflation forecasts on Wednesday but maintained its massive stimulus program, with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warning of growing risks to the economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of 2019 next week, with investors hoping for more clues on how patient it will be before raising interest rates again. Fed officials have left little doubt in recent weeks that they want to stop raising rates - at least for a while. When production cuts and trade talks are out of sight.
  • U.S. crude inventories will matter. And the forecasts for that aren't looking too great. Prices of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and London's Brent oil fell for a second straight day on Wednesday after forecasts were for a decline of 42,000 barrels last week in U.S. crude stockpiles versus the 2.7-million drop in the week to Jan. 11.The U.S. Energy Information Administration will report official inventory numbers on Thursday. Crude prices initially rose on Wednesday on hopes that China and Japan would resort to stimulus measures to avert a slowdown in their economies. As the day progressed, however, the market turned south on worries about U.S. oil inventories The EIA said last week that gasoline inventories rose by 7.5 million barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 2.77 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles increased by 2.97 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.57 million After ending 2018 in free-fall, oil is off to its best start for a year since 2001, gaining roughly 18% since the start of January on production cuts by the world's big exporters, notably Saudia Arabia But the market has turned volatile lately on worries about a possible slowing in the Chinese and global economies this year, and new record production rates forecast next year for U.S. crude output. Those gains would easily make it the world's top producer. Wednesday's market was also depressed by reports about an EU arrangement that would let Iran bypass U.S. sanctions on its oil. The European Union was set to launch a mechanism that would facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran, skirting the U.S. sanctions, Reuters quoted diplomats as saying. Even news of possible U.S. sanctions against Venezuela -- a development that ought to push oil prices higher -- didn't help crude prices rebound . Reuters reported that the Trump administration could impose new restrictions on Caracas' vital oil sector as soon as this week to punish President Nicolas Maduro's government amid street protests unfolding in the Latin American country. On the U.S.-Sino trade talks, the Financial Times reported that Washington rejected an offer by two Chinese vice-ministers to travel to the U.S. this week for preparatory trade talks because of a lack of progress on two key issues, but White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow denied that report. President Donald Trump's no-show at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, also snuffed out hopes that the trade talks would make some advanced progress this week. Trump and high-ranking U.S. officials had been expected to meet the Chinese delegation to the forum ahead of the 90-day trade truce ending March 1. In Davos, a senior Russian official said his country shouldn't get into a price war with shale to try to force the U.S. out of the global market.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th January 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,282 1.289 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.40-15.60 15.80 16.00-16.40
Crude Oil 53.00 54.20-54.80 55.50
EURO/USD 1.1380-1.1420 1.1460 1.1490-1.1560
GBP/USD 1.3050 1.3100-1.3170 1.3200
USD/JPY 109.80-110.20 111.00 111.45

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th January 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274 1,266-1,260 1,252
Silver-XAG 15.10 14.90-14.75 14.40
Crude Oil 52.50 51.70-51.00 50.40
EURO/USD 1.1340-1.1305 1.1265 1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2940 1.2900 1.2850-1.2800
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.50 108.00-107.50

Intra-Day Strategy (24th January 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1286.45/oz and low of US$1278.58/oz. Gold down by 0.195% at US$1282.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1274-1252 with risk below 1260, targeting 1282-1289-1300 and 1309-1315. Sell below 1282-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1309, targeting 1274-1266 and 1260-1252.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274
S2     1,266-1,260
S3     1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,282
R2     1.289
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.820

Buy
20-DMA   1285.75 Buy
50-DMA  

1255.53

Buy
100-DMA   1232.72 Buy
200-DMA   1246.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   11.971 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.120 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.41/oz and low of US$15.25/oz. Silver settled up by 0.196% at US$15.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above100DMA (14.50), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.10-14.40 targeting 15.40-15.60-15.80 and 16.00-16.40; stop breakage below 14.40. Sell below 15.40-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.40-15.10-14.90 and 14.75 14.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.10
S2     14.90-14.75
S3     14.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.40-15.60
R2     15.80
R3     16.00-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.873 Buy
20-DMA   15.41 Buy
50-DMA   14.80 Buy
100-DMA   14.61 Buy
200-DMA   15.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.852 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.185 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$53.66/bbl, intraday low of US$51.88/bbl and settled down by 0.196% to close at US$52.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-56.10 with stop loss at 56.10; targeting 52.50-51.70-51.00 and 50.40-49.50. Buy above 52.50-50.50 with risk daily closing below 50.50 and targeting 53.00-54.20-54.80 and 55.50-56.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.50
S2     51.70-51.00
S3     50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00
R2     54.20-54.80
R3     55.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.075 Sell
20-DMA   50.39 Sell
50-DMA   51.00 Sell
100-DMA   59.81 Sell
200-DMA   64.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.995 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.718 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1350/EUR, high of US$1.1393/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0352% to close at US$1.1380/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1475), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1390-1.1265 with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1420-1.1490-1.1560 and 1.1620-1.1660. Sell below 1.1420-1.1590 targeting 1.1390-1.1345 and 1.1305-1.1265 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1590.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1340-1.1305
S2     1.1265
S3     1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380-1.1420
R2     1.1460
R3     1.1490-1.1560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.934 Buy
20-DMA   1.1418 Buy
50-DMA   1.1378 Sell
100-DMA   1.1458 Sell
200-DMA   1.1599 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0032 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2941/GBP, high of US$1.3080/GBP and settled the day up by % to close at US$1.3067/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3180 with targets at 1.2850-1.2800 and 1.2750-1.2690. Buy above 1.2850-1.2690 with targets 1.2900-1.2940 1.3010 and 1.3050-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2690.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2940
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2850-1.2800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3050
R2     1.3100-1.3170
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.578

Buy
20-DMA   1.2771 Sell
50-DMA   1.2751 Sell
100-DMA   1.2890 Sell
200-DMA   1.3087 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   55.636 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.13/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.68/USD and settled the day down by % at JPY109.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.10-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-108.10-107.70 and 107.05-106.60. Long positions above 108.50-106.60 with targets of 109.10-109.60 and 110.20-111.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     108.00-107.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.80-110.20
R2     111.00
R3     111.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.753 Buy
20-DMA   109.35 Sell
50-DMA   111.69 Sell
100-DMA   112.07 Buy
200-DMA   111.15 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.250 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.213 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING