AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stock markets were in a cautious mood on Thursday as investors hung on for any hint of progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks amid reports the White House could extend the deadline for a deal. Bloomberg reported President Donald Trump was considering pushing back the deadline by 60 days, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump, on Wednesday, had said the talks were “going along very well” as they try to resolve the dispute ahead of the initial March 1 deadline. With Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in China for high level talks, investors had been daring to hope for good news. As there have been disappointment before, the reaction in share markets was guarded. Shanghai blue chips were down 0.2 percent, having jumped 2 percent on Wednesday to levels last seen in late September. Beijing reported exports rose 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier, confounding forecasts of a fall, while imports dipped by a surprisingly slight 1.5 percent. There was some hope another U.S. government shutdown would be averted as Trump edged toward backing a deal in Congress on funding for a border barrier. The euro took a hit of its own from dire data on European industrial output which pushed long-term market inflation expectations to new lows, while putting downward pressure on bond yields in the bloc.
  • China’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $27.3 billion in January, from $29.87 billion in December, customs data showed on Thursday. China’s exports to the United States fell 2.4 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports from the United States plunged 41.2 percent. China’s large trade surplus with the United States has long been a sore point with Washington, and is at the centre of a bitter dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. The two countries have hit each other with tit-for-tariffs on goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars. A new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks began in Beijing on Monday as the two sides’ renewed efforts to hammer out a deal ahead of a March 1 deadline when U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a 60-day extension of the Mar. 1 deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese imports, Bloomberg said on Thursday, citing unnamed sources. Trump was considering the extension so as to give two-way talks more time, Bloomberg adde. A trade delegation led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin began high-level talks with Chinese counterparts, led by Vice Premier Liu He, on Thursday.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by hopes that potential progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook. Optimism that a trade deal could be reached between the United States and China was boosted when U.S. President Donald Trump said talks were going “very well”. But climbing U.S. oil stockpiles weighed on prices. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week to the highest since November 2017 as refiners cut runs to the lowest since October 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories built for a fourth week in a row, rising 3.6 million barrels to 450.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 8. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast an increase of 2.7 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production remained at a record of 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd). The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), even with the group’s production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday. The IEA said it expected global oil demand this year to grow by 1.4 million bpd, while non-OPEC supply will grow by 1.8 million bpd.
  • The dollar held near three-month highs versus the euro on Thursday, supported by sustained strength in core U.S. inflation and weaker-than-expected data out of Europe. While headline U.S. inflation logged its weakest pace in 1-1/2-years in January, traders focussed on the core price gauge, which was up for the third straight month, giving the dollar some impetus. The greenback was hit earlier this year by the Federal Reserve’ shift to a cautious policy stance. However, the latest data suggests the central bank will need to stay vigilant on pricing pressures even as it adjusts to heightened growth risks. The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer for global risk appetite, was up 0.3 percent at $0.7110, having gained about 0.5 percent in the previous session on optimism about the China-U.S. trade talks. The strength in the Aussie was also buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data out of China, Australia’s largest trade partner. China’s January dollar-denominated exports rose 9.1 percent from a year earlier, while imports dropped 1.5 percent, both beating analysts’ expectations, official data showed on Thursday. That contrasted with the wobbles in the euro. The single currency, which has around a 58 percent weighting in the dollar index, has tumbled 1.63 percent this month on the back of weaker-than-expected economic data out of the euro zone and expectations the European Central Bank will remain highly accommodative this year. Euro zone industrial production fell more than expected in December, official estimates showed on Wednesday, pulled down by a drop in the output of capital goods, used for investment. Political uncertainty in Spain, the currency bloc’s fourth largest economy, has further hampered the euro. Spain’s parliament rejected a draft 2019 budget on Wednesday after Catalan separatists turned their back on the government, pushing the country close to an early national election amid an increasingly fragmented political landscape. Broad risk appetite in financial markets has been on the uptick in the past couple of days on rising expectations of a breakthrough in the trade impasse between United States and China. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are in Beijing for high level talks. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the talks with China were “going along very well” as they try to resolve the tariff dispute ahead of a March 1 deadline. U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China are scheduled to rise to 25 percent from 10 percent if the two sides don’t reach a deal by the deadline, increasing pressure and costs in sectors from consumer electronics to agriculture. Elsewhere, the yen was steady at 110.99. The dollar has gained against its Japanese rival in recent weeks, up 1.9 percent so far in February. Analysts believe that Japanese demand for foreign bonds is one factor leading to weakness in the yen.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309-1.316 1,334-1.342 1,334-1.342
Silver-XAG 15.90-16.40 17.00 17.40-18.00
Crude Oil 54.80-55.50 56.00 56.50
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1330 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2910 1.2950-1.3010 1.3090
USD/JPY 111.00-111.75 112.25 113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1.296 1.289-1,282
Silver-XAG 15.60 15.40 15.10-14.90
Crude Oil 53.80-53.00 52.50 52.00-51.00
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1210 1.1160 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2850-1.2790 1.2750 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 110.60-110.02 109.90 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (14th February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1318.09/oz and low of US$1304.99/oz. Gold down by 0.346% at US$1305.90/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1309-1276 with risk below 1274, targeting 1315-1320 and 1326-1334. Sell below 1315-1342 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1309-1300-1296 and 1289-1282.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300
S2     1.296
S3     1.289-1,282
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309-1.316
R2     1,334-1.342
R3     1,334-1.342

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.972

Buy
20-DMA   1300.33 Buy
50-DMA  

1275.70

Buy
100-DMA   1245.13 Buy
200-DMA   1245.88 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   32.473 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   10.976 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.80/oz and low of US$15.52/oz. Silver settled down by 0.766% at US$15.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.27), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.00-15.70-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60
S2     15.40
S3     15.10-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.90-16.40
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.013 Buy
20-DMA   15.63 Buy
50-DMA   15.20 Buy
100-DMA   14.82 Buy
200-DMA   15.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.300 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.146 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$53.62/bbl, intraday low of US$53.62/bbl and settled up by 1.136% to close at US$54.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.80-56.50 with stop loss at 56.50; targeting 53.80-53.00-52.50 and 52.00-51.50-51.00. Buy above 53.80-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 54.80-55.50 and 56.00-56.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.80-53.00
S2     52.50
S3     52.00-51.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.80-55.50
R2     56.00
R3     56.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.239 Sell
20-DMA   53.67 Sell
50-DMA   51.10 Buy
100-DMA   57.46 Sell
200-DMA   63.05 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.637 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1259/EUR, high of US$1.1340/EUR and settled the day down by 0.574% to close at US$1.1259/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1475), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090, targeting 1.1305-1.1330-1.1380 and 1.1460-1.1490. Sell below 1.1305-1.1500 targeting 1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250-1.1210
S2     1.1160
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1305-1.1330
R2     1.1380
R3     1.1420-1.1460

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.264 Buy
20-DMA   1.1370 Sell
50-DMA   1.1387 Sell
100-DMA   1.1409 Sell
200-DMA   1.1534 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2844/GBP, high of US$1.2957/GBP and settled the day down by 0.350% to close at US$1.2844/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3090 with targets at 1.2850-1.2790-1.2750 and 1.2700-12660. Buy above 1.2900-1.2790 with targets 1.2910-1.2950-1.3010 and 1.3050-1.3090 with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2850-1.2790
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2910
R2     1.2950-1.3010
R3     1.3090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.816

Buy
20-DMA   1.2997 Sell
50-DMA   1.2812 Buy
100-DMA   1.2889 Sell
200-DMA   1.3021 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.41/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.04/USD and settled the day up by 0.488% at JPY110.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-110.02
S2     109.90
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.75
R2     112.25
R3     113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.26 Buy
20-DMA   109.60 Buy
50-DMA   110.42 Buy
100-DMA   111.74 Sell
200-DMA   111.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0392 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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