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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell on Friday after weak U.S. retail sales figures raised fresh doubts about the strength of the world’s largest economy, offsetting optimism towards trade talks between the United States and China. Also casting a shadow, the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to try to obtain funds for his promised U.S.-Mexico border wall, drawing immediate criticism from Democrats. A wait-and see mood ensued for markets ahead of the results of a meeting on Friday between the Trump administration’s top two negotiators and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. There has been no decision to extend a March 1 deadline for a deal, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday. In the United States, the S&P 500 lost about 0.3 percent on Thursday, a day after it hit a 10-week high on rising hopes that Washington and Beijing could reach a trade deal. U.S. retail sales tumbled 1.2 percent in December, recording their biggest drop since September 2009 as receipts fell across the board. The shockingly weak report led to economic growth estimates for the fourth-quarter being cut to below a 2.0 percent annualized rate, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a 1.5 percent growth, much below its previous forecast of 2.7 percent about a week ago. Kazushige Kaida, head of foreign exchange at State Street in Tokyo, said he was “very surprised” by the U.S. retail sales data. The collapse in retail sales came along with data showing an unexpected increase in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week. The closely-watched four-week average of the volatile data rose to the highest level in more than a year. That prompted Fed fund futures to price in a small chance, about 15 percent, of a rate cut this year. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the central bank should stop paring its balance sheet by the end of this year. The British pound traded a shade lower at $1.2794 following a descent to a near one-month low of $1.2773 overnight after Prime Minister Theresa May lost a symbolic Brexit vote in parliament, weakening her hand as she seeks to renegotiate her withdrawal agreement with Brussels.
  • The dollar edged lower versus the yen on Friday as dismal U.S. retail sales data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year, while the market awaited developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. U.S. retail sales posted their largest decline since September 2009, data showed on Thursday, a sign of weakness in the consumer sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy The main focus for the Asian market on Friday remains the outcome of the high level trade talks between the United States and China this week. Markets had earlier in the week cheered U.S. President Donald Trump's upbeat assessment of the talks. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the administration's top two negotiators would meet on Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping but that there had been no decision to extend a March 1 deadline for a deal. Bloomberg had earlier reported that Trump was considering a six-day extension of the deadline. U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China are scheduled to rise to 25 percent from 10 percent if the two sides don't reach a deal by then, increasing pain and costs in sectors from consumer electronics to agriculture.The euro was 0.1 percent lower at $1.1284. The single currency has lost 0.4 percent this week and is down by 1.7 percent year to date thanks to weaker-than-expected euro zone data. Analysts expect the European Central Bank to keep monetary policy accommodative for the rest of the year, which will most likely keep a lid on the single currency. Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.16 percent at $1.2791. Traders expect the pound to remain volatile in the coming weeks. Sterling is set to finish the week 1.2 percent lower versus the dollar, its third straight week of losses. British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a defeat on her Brexit strategy on Thursday that undermined her pledge to European Union leaders to get her divorce deal approved if they grant her concessions.
  • Brent crude oil prices hit 2019 highs above $65 per barrel on Friday, spurred by U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran as well as OPEC-led supply cuts. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated suppliers including Russia are withholding supply in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. The producer group known as OPEC+ has agreed to cut crude output by a joint 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would cut even more in March than the deal called for. Russia has cut its oil production by 80,000-90,000 barrels per day from its level in October, Moscow's reference level for its cuts, the country's energy minister said. Commodity investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R) said that oil production from non-OPEC producers like Brazil, Mexico or the North Sea was also struggling, further tightening the market. Trade data in Refinitiv showed that combined crude oil shipments out of the North Sea, Mexico and Brazil were at 4.2 million bpd in January, down from 4.4 million bpd in December. Standing against these declines is soaring U.S. crude production, which rose by more than 2 million bpd last year, to 11.9 million bpd, making America the world's biggest oil producer. Most analysts expect U.S. output to rise past 12 million bpd soon, and perhaps even hit 13 million bpd by the end of the year. Rising U.S. shale oil supply, increasing spare capacity within OPEC and stagnating fuel consumption meant the medium-term oil price outlook was lower, BoAML said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1.316 1,326 1,334-1.342
Silver-XAG 15.60-15.90 16.40 17.00-17.40
Crude Oil 55.50-56.00 56.50 57.00
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1330 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2910 1.2950-1.3010 1.3090
USD/JPY 110.60 111.00-111.75 112.25

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,309-1,300 1.296 1.289-1,282
Silver-XAG 15.40 15.10-14.90 14.50
Crude Oil 54.80-53.80 53.00 52.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1210 1.1160 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2850-1.2790 1.2750 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 110.02 109.90 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (15th February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1314.31/oz and low of US$1302.32/oz. Gold up by 0.460% at US$1312.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1309-1276 with risk below 1274, targeting 1315-1320 and 1326-1334. Sell below 1315-1342 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1309-1300-1296 and 1289-1282.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,309-1,300
S2     1.296
S3     1.289-1,282
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.316
R2     1,326
R3     1,334-1.342

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.451

Buy
20-DMA   1305.33 Buy
50-DMA  

1283.70

Buy
100-DMA   1250.61 Buy
200-DMA   1245.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.473 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   8.976 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.67/oz and low of US$15.47/oz. Silver settled up by 0.386% at US$15.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.22), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.00-15.70-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.40
S2     15.10-14.90
S3     14.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-15.90
R2     16.40
R3     17.00-17.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.005 Buy
20-DMA   15.66 Buy
50-DMA   15.33 Buy
100-DMA   14.89 Buy
200-DMA   15.22 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.300 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.146 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$55.06/bbl, intraday low of US$53.52/bbl and settled up by 0.827% to close at US$54.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 55.50-57.00 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting 54.80-53.80-53.00 and 52.50-52.00. Buy above 54.80-52.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 55.50-56.00 and 56.50-57.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.80-53.80
S2     53.00
S3     52.50-52.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     55.50-56.00
R2     56.50
R3     57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.517 Sell
20-DMA   53.74 Sell
50-DMA   51.15 Buy
100-DMA   57.30 Sell
200-DMA   62.97 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.720 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1248/EUR, high of US$1.1309/EUR and settled the day up by 0.310% to close at US$1.1293/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1475), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090, targeting 1.1305-1.1330-1.1380 and 1.1460-1.1490. Sell below 1.1305-1.1500 targeting 1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250-1.1210
S2     1.1160
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1305-1.1330
R2     1.1380
R3     1.1420-1.1460

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.301 Buy
20-DMA   1.1367 Sell
50-DMA   1.1387 Sell
100-DMA   1.1405 Sell
200-DMA   1.1531 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   27.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2772/GBP, high of US$1.2876/GBP and settled the day down by 0.350% to close at US$1.2801/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3090 with targets at 1.2850-1.2790-1.2750 and 1.2700-12660. Buy above 1.2900-1.2790 with targets 1.2910-1.2950-1.3010 and 1.3050-1.3090 with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2850-1.2790
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2910
R2     1.2950-1.3010
R3     1.3090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.816

Buy
20-DMA   1.2997 Sell
50-DMA   1.2812 Buy
100-DMA   1.2889 Sell
200-DMA   1.3021 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.44/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.12/USD and settled the day down by 0.485% at JPY110.45/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.02
S2     109.90
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.60
R2     111.00-111.75
R3     112.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.265 Buy
20-DMA   109.60 Buy
50-DMA   110.42 Buy
100-DMA   111.74 Sell
200-DMA   111.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0392 Buy

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