AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares pulled ahead to fresh 4-1/2-month highs on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve affirmed it would be “patient” on further interest rate rises and as Sino-U.S. trade talks hinted of progress towards a deal in their tariff war. Investors have been cheered over recent days by signs of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks. The trade war between the economic giants have roiled financial markets over the past year. The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that trade negotiations were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, saying March 1 was not a “magical” date. On Wall Street, all three major U.S. equity indexes ended in positive territory on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed’s Jan. 29-30 meeting indicated policymakers see little risk to leaving rates alone, for now. The Fed signaled it will soon lay out a plan to stop letting go of $4 trillion in bonds and other assets, though policymakers are still debating how long their newly adopted “patient” stance on U.S. rates will last. The euro held steady at $1.1345. Purchasing manager indexes for the euro zone are due on Thursday and investors are also eyeing the release of minutes from the European Central Bank’s January meeting later in the day. Japanese manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time in two-and-a-half years as factories cut output amid shrinking domestic and export orders, a private business survey showed on Thursday. The United States is seeking to secure a pledge from China it will not devalue its yuan as part of an agreement intended to end the countries’ trade war, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. In the commodity market, crude prices rose more than 1 percent on Wednesday to their highest in 2019 on hopes that oil markets will balance later this year.
  • The dollar inched up on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting revived expectations for a possible U.S. rate hike this year while investors shifted their focus back to trade issues for fresh directional cues. The greenback had risen slightly against the yen and trimmed losses versus the euro late on Wednesday after the Fed, in the minutes of its latest meeting in January, said the U.S. economy and its labor market remained strong, prompting some expectations of at least one more interest rate hike this year. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies added 0.1 percent to 96.569, crawling away from a two-week trough of 96.286 marked on Wednesday. The Fed caught markets off guard last month after it took a dovish turn in its commentary, widely read as a sign it would suspend a three-year campaign to raise interest rates. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the United States would impose tariffs on European car imports if it cannot reach a trade deal with the European Union. The Aussie rallied early in the session to a two-week peak of $0.7207 on strong domestic January employment data. But the currency quickly lost altitude, with traders attributing the slide to interest rate cut forecasts made by Westpac. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe had sent the Aussie tumbling early in February by stepping back from the central bank's long-standing tightening bias, saying the next move in interest rates could be either down or up. Sterling took a knock after three lawmakers defected from British Prime Minister Theresa May's ruling Conservative party in a move that could undermine her Brexit strategy. The pound was also weighed after Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday it may downgrade the United Kingdom's "AA" debt rating based on growing Brexit uncertainty.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday in Asia amid some positive trade news that suggested the U.S. and China would be able to reach a deal by the early March deadline. Citing sources familiar with negotiations, Reuters reported that U.S. and China have begun to outline a deal to end their trade dispute. Asian equities advanced following the news, while oil prices also traded in the green. Oil prices have been receiving some support from supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC, along with Russia, agreed late last year to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to prevent a large supply overhang from growing. Oil prices traded slightly lower at the start of Asian trading on Thursday after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude stocks for the week ended February 15 were up 1.3 million barrels, the API said. Analysts previously expected U.S. crude stocks to have increased by 3.5 million barrels for the same period. The API report came after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday in a monthly report that U.S. crude output, which soared by more than 2 million bpd in 2018 to a record 11.9 million bpd, is set to keep rising thanks to booming shale oil production. Official oil inventory and production data by the EIA are due to be published later in the day. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 15 to 448.5 million, according to a weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday. Official oil inventory and production data is due to be published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) after 1800 GMT on Thursday. Despite the slowdown in economic growth that emerged in late 2018, oil prices have been driven up this year by supply cuts led by the OPEC. OPEC, as well as some non-affiliated producers such as Russia, agreed late last year to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to prevent a large supply overhang from growing. Another price driver has been U.S. sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,351-1,358 1,364 1,370
Silver-XAG 16.40 17.00-17.40 18.00
Crude Oil 58.00-58.60 59.40 60.00
EURO/USD 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3080 1.3120 1.3170-1.3220
USD/JPY 111.00-111.60 112.25 112.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1.342-1,334 1,326 1.316-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.90 15.60--15.40 15.10
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1250 1.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2950 1.2910 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 110.60-110.02 109.90 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (21st February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1346.64/oz and low of US$1336.80/oz. Gold down by 0.202% at US$1337.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1287) and breakage below will call for 1280-1274. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1334-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1346-1351-1358 and 1364-1370. Sell below 1351-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370, targeting 1341-1334-1326 and 1316-1309-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.342-1,334
S2     1,326
S3     1.316-1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,351-1,358
R2     1,364
R3     1,370

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

73.112

Buy
20-DMA   1314.02 Buy
50-DMA  

1289.42

Buy
100-DMA   1255.17 Buy
200-DMA   1246.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.473 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.260 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.20/oz and low of US$15.94/oz. Silver settled up by 0.438% at US$16.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.22), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.90-14.70 targeting 16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 15.90-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.90
S2     15.60--15.40
S3     15.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     17.00-17.40
R3     18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.977 Buy
20-DMA   15.77 Buy
50-DMA   15.42 Buy
100-DMA   14.93 Buy
200-DMA   15.21 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.300 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.63/bbl, intraday low of US$55.83/bbl and settled up by 1.470% to close at US$57.21/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.00; targeting 57.10-56.50-56.00 and 55.50-54.80. Buy above 57.10-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 58.00-58.60 and 59.40-60.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-54.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.00-58.60
R2     59.40
R3     60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.81 Sell
20-DMA   54.53 Sell
50-DMA   51.58 Buy
100-DMA   56.62 Sell
200-DMA   62.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1324/EUR, high of US$1.1370/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0264% to close at US$1.1336/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460 and 1.1500. Sell below 1.1380-1.1500 targeting 1.1330-1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380
R2     1.1420-1.1460
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.133 Buy
20-DMA   1.1361 Sell
50-DMA   1.1384 Sell
100-DMA   1.1397 Sell
200-DMA   1.1522 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2895/GBP, high of US$1.3072/GBP and settled the day up by 1.072% to close at US$1.3060/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3090-1.2790 with targets at 1.3010-1.2950-1.2910 and 1.2850-1.2790. Buy above 1.3010-1.2790 with targets 1.3090-1.3120 and 1.3170-1.3220 with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2950
S2     1.2910
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3080
R2     1.3120
R3     1.3170-1.3220

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.102

Buy
20-DMA   1.2995 Sell
50-DMA   1.2839 Buy
100-DMA   1.2879 Sell
200-DMA   1.3003 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.51/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.94/USD and settled the day up by 0.197% at JPY110.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-110.02
S2     109.90
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.60
R2     112.25
R3     112.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.265 Buy
20-DMA   109.60 Buy
50-DMA   110.42 Buy
100-DMA   111.74 Sell
200-DMA   111.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0392 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING