AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Shares in Asia slipped on Friday as a deteriorating global economic outlook outweighed further signs of progress in trade talks between China and the United States. After inching higher in early trade, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell into the red as more markets opened across the region, dipping 0.1 percent. Chinese blue-chip shares were down 0.1 percent in late-morning trade after briefly breaking into positive territory. After surging on Monday on optimism over trade talks, China’s major equity indexes have faltered on investor concerns over slowing domestic growth and on indications that Chinese authorities will resort to a benchmark lending rate cut only as a last resort to boost the economy. Growth in China’s new home prices fell to a nine-month low in January as broader economic weakness increasingly weighs on the property sector. Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.4 percent after data showed core consumer inflation accelerated slightly in January but remained far from the central bank’s 2 percent target, underscoring the fragility of the country’s economic recovery. Australian shares gained 0.4 percent. A combination of trade talks and Federal Reserve caution over further rate hikes has provided support to riskier assets, including equities, in recent sessions, said Rob Carnell, chief economist and head of research, Asia-Pacific at ING. But with a more dovish Fed and some sort of trade deal already priced in, further developments on trade “haven’t really been having anything like the impact in markets that they would have done a week or a couple weeks or months ago,” he said. Nevertheless, investors continue to closely watch high-level talks between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators in Washington, with little more than a week left before a U.S.-imposed deadline for an agreement expires, triggering higher tariffs. Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that the two sides were drafting language for six memorandums of understanding on proposed Chinese reforms, progress that had helped to lift investor sentiment. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday, the White House said. Amid the trade discussions, new data from the U.S. Thursday highlighted its economic outlook is also growing cloudy. The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday that domestic orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent Moreover, the U.S. Mid-Atlantic factory sector fell into contraction territory in February for the first time since May 2016, data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed.
  • The U.S. dollar edged up on Friday in Asia even after a set of weak U.S. data released overnight. The Aussie Dollar was little changed after sliding to a 10-days low yesterday. The U.S. dollar index traded 0.1% higher to 96.500 by 12:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT) despite a slew of negative U.S. economic reports pointing to signs of slowing growth in the underlying economy. The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its manufacturing index fell to a reading of -4.1 in February from 17.0 last month. The Commerce Department said core durable goods orders slowed to rate of 0.1% in December, missing economists forecasts for a 0.2% rise. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 1.2% in January from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units. Economists were expecting a 0.8% increase to 5.01 million homes. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair was little changed on Friday after sliding more than 1% to a 10-day low the previous day on fears a ban on the country's coal by a Chinese port would hurt Australia's already slowing economy. Reports that Westpac dropped a changed forecast for its Reserve Bank of Australia policy outlook were also cited as a headwind for the Aussie dollar. The bank said it now expects two rate cuts from the RBA, the first in August 2019 to be followed with another in November 2019.Sino-U.S. trade talks remained in focus after Reuters reported on Thursday that Washington and Beijing have begun drawing up memorandums of understanding over trade. The two sides are trying to reach a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when additional tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. will go into effect.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday after the United States reported its crude output hit a record 12 million barrels per day (bpd), undermining efforts by Middle East-dominated producer club OPEC to withhold supply and tighten global markets. U.S. crude oil production reached 12 million bpd for the first time last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday in a weekly report. That means U.S. crude output has soared by almost 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2018, and by a whopping 5 million bpd since 2013. America is the only country to ever reach 12 million bpd of production. As output surges, U.S. oil stocks are also rising. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.7 million barrels to 454.5 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 15, the EIA said. Analysts say U.S. output will rise further and that oil firms will export more oil to sell off surplus stocks. Friday's dips at least temporarily halted a rally that pushed crude prices this week to their highest for 2019 so far amid the supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC and some non-affiliated producers such as Russia agreed late last year to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to prevent a large supply overhang from growing. Another recent price driver has been U.S. sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,334-1.342 1,351 1,358-1,364
Silver-XAG 15.90-16.40 17.00 17.40-18.00
Crude Oil 58.00-58.60 59.40 60.00
EURO/USD 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3080 1.3120 1.3170-1.3220
USD/JPY 111.00-111.60 112.25 112.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,325 1.316-1,309 1,300
Silver-XAG 15.60--15.40 15.10 14.70
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1250 1.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2950 1.2910 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 110.60-110.02 109.90 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1341.43/oz and low of US$1320.90/oz. Gold down by 1.122% at US$1323.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1287) and breakage below will call for 1280-1274. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1324-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1334-1342-1351 and 1358-1364. Sell below 1334-1364 keeping stop loss closing above 1364, targeting 1324-1316 and 1309-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,325
S2     1.316-1,309
S3     1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,334-1.342
R2     1,351
R3     1,358-1,364

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.389

Buy
20-DMA   1316.96 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.42

Buy
100-DMA   1257.17 Buy
200-DMA   1246.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.473 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.260 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.09/oz and low of US$15.77/oz. Silver settled down by 1.498% at US$15.784/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.22), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 15.90-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60--15.40
S2     15.10
S3     14.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.90-16.40
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.059 Buy
20-DMA   15.80 Buy
50-DMA   15.47 Buy
100-DMA   14.96 Buy
200-DMA   15.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   47.300 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.65/bbl, intraday low of US$55.73/bbl and settled down by % to close at US$56.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.00; targeting 57.10-56.50-56.00 and 55.50-54.80. Buy above 57.10-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 58.00-58.60 and 59.40-60.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-54.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.00-58.60
R2     59.40
R3     60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.81 Sell
20-DMA   54.53 Sell
50-DMA   51.58 Buy
100-DMA   56.62 Sell
200-DMA   62.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1319/EUR, high of US$1.1365/EUR and settled the day down by 0.026% to close at US$1.1332/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460 and 1.1500. Sell below 1.1380-1.1500 targeting 1.1330-1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380
R2     1.1420-1.1460
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.133 Buy
20-DMA   1.1361 Sell
50-DMA   1.1384 Sell
100-DMA   1.1397 Sell
200-DMA   1.1522 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3025/GBP, high of US$1.3094/GBP and settled the day down by 0.076% to close at US$1.3038/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy:

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3090-1.2790 with targets at 1.3010-1.2950-1.2910 and 1.2850-1.2790. Buy above 1.3010-1.2790 with targets 1.3090-1.3120 and 1.3170-1.3220 with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2950
S2     1.2910
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3080
R2     1.3120
R3     1.3170-1.3220

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.102

Buy
20-DMA   1.2995 Sell
50-DMA   1.2839 Buy
100-DMA   1.2879 Sell
200-DMA   1.3003 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.85/USD and settled the day down by 0.144% at JPY110.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-110.02
S2     109.90
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.60
R2     112.25
R3     112.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.265 Buy
20-DMA   109.60 Buy
50-DMA   110.42 Buy
100-DMA   111.74 Sell
200-DMA   111.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0392 Buy

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