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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares scaled a 5-month peak on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he would delay a planned increase on Chinese imports as talks between the two sides were making “substantial progress”. Trump on Sunday tweeted he would push back the March 1 deadline for higher tariffs and looked forward to a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping when a deal was sealed. U.S. and Chinese negotiators were discussing the thorny issue of how to enforce a potential trade deal on Sunday after moving ahead on structural issues, a source said. Trump tweeted progress had been made on intellectual property, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currencies. Stocks have also been underpinned by a dovish shift from the U.S. Federal Reserve which has set aside rate hikes for now. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will testify on U.S. monetary policy on Tuesday and Wednesday. Prime Minister Theresa May put off a vote on her Brexit deal until as late as March 12 - just 17 days before Britain is due to leave the EU - setting up a showdown this week with lawmakers who accuse her of running out the clock. Trump inclined to extend China trade deadline
  • The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose and the yen sagged in early Asian trade on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he will delay increasing tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1, citing "substantial progress" in trade talks. The U.S. president also said he would plan a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to conclude an agreement, assuming the trade talks make additional progress. Indeed, Trump's tweets came amid rising expectations that he would delay increasing higher tariffs before the March 1 deadline to avoid escalating the U.S.-China trade war. The president said in a tweet that progress had been made on a host of divisive areas including intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currency. Prime Minister Theresa May put off a vote on her Brexit deal until as late as March 12 - just 17 days before Britain is due to leave the EU - setting up a showdown this week with lawmakers who accuse her of running out the clock. In what promises to be a jam packed week markets will be eyeing developments in U.S.-China trade talks ahead of Friday’s looming deadline and will get an overdue update of the health of the world’s largest economy with Thursday’s report on U.S. fourth quarter growth. On Friday U.S. President Donald Trump said he was open to extending the March 1 deadline for hiking tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% as long as progress was being made in negotiations between the two sides. While the trade talks continue Trump is set to hold a second summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday and Thursday in Hanoi. Data on U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product is due to be released on Thursday. The release of the report was delayed by the 35-day partial government shutdown. Figures on personal consumption expenditure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are scheduled to be released on Friday. Other economic data releases of note this week include housing starts and building permits on Tuesday and consumer sentiment and manufacturing on Friday. The data will be closely watched after recent reports on durable goods, retail sales and existing home sales all disappointed. Testimony on the economic outlook and monetary policy plans by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be closely watched. Last week’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed it saw downside risks to global growth increasing, and that it saw little risk from keeping interest rates on hold for now. The dollar dipped against a currency basket on Friday amid hopes that a trade deal between Washington and Beijing is getting closer.
  • This week gold prices are likely to remain sensitive due to the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China, while U.S. economic data will also be closely watched for its impact on the greenback, one of the biggest drivers for the precious metal. While the trade talks continue Trump is set to hold a second summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday and Thursday in Hanoi. Data on U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product is due to be released on Thursday. The release of the report was delayed by the 35-day partial government shutdown. Figures on personal consumption expenditure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are scheduled to be released on Friday. Other economic data releases of note this week include housing starts and building permits on Tuesday and consumer sentiment and manufacturing on Friday.The data will be closely watched after recent U.S. reports on durable goods, retail sales and existing home sales all disappointed. Testimony on the economic outlook and monetary policy plans by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be closely watched.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as Washington and China appeared to edge closer to a trade deal, dampening fears over the outlook for global economic growth. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for later this week thanks to progress in trade talks and said if progress continued, he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would seal a deal. Signs of reduced global oil supply also supported crude prices. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in three weeks week after U.S. crude production hit an all-time high, boosting exports to a record-peak and stockpiles to their highest in over a year. Meanwhile, Mexico's Pemex produced 1.62 million barrels of crude per day in January, less than any month in almost three decades, the state-owned oil company said on Friday, underscoring the challenges facing a government that vows to pump far more in a few years.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,334-1.342 1,351 1,358-1,364
Silver-XAG 15.90-16.40 17.00 17.40-18.00
Crude Oil 58.00-58.60 59.40 60.00
EURO/USD 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3080 1.3120 1.3170-1.3220
USD/JPY 111.00-111.60 112.25 112.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,325 1.316-1,309 1,300
Silver-XAG 15.60--15.40 15.10 14.70
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1250 1.1210-1.11601.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2950 1.2910 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 110.60-110.02 109.90 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (25th February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1333,03/oz and low of US$1321.46/oz. Gold up by 0.307% at US$1328.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1287) and breakage below will call for 1280-1274. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1324-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1334-1342-1351 and 1358-1364. Sell below 1334-1364 keeping stop loss closing above 1364, targeting 1324-1316 and 1309-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,325
S2     1.316-1,309
S3     1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,334-1.342
R2     1,351
R3     1,358-1,364

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.389

Buy
20-DMA   1316.96 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.42

Buy
100-DMA   1257.17 Buy
200-DMA   1246.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.473 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.260 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.96/oz and low of US$15.76/oz. Silver settled up by 0.951% at US$15.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.22), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 15.90-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60--15.40
S2     15.10
S3     14.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.90-16.40
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.059 Buy
20-DMA   15.80 Buy
50-DMA   15.47 Buy
100-DMA   14.96 Buy
200-DMA   15.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.300 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$57.90/bbl, intraday low of US$56.83/bbl and settled up by 0.280% to close at US$57.13/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.00; targeting 57.10-56.50-56.00 and 55.50-54.80. Buy above 57.10-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 58.00-58.60 and 59.40-60.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-54.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.00-58.60
R2     59.40
R3     60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.81 Sell
20-DMA   54.53 Sell
50-DMA   51.58 Buy
100-DMA   56.62 Sell
200-DMA   62.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1315/EUR, high of US$1.1354/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0265% to close at US$1.1334/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460 and 1.1500. Sell below 1.1380-1.1500 targeting 1.1330-1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1210-1.11601.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380
R2     1.1420-1.1460
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.133 Buy
20-DMA   1.1359 Sell
50-DMA   1.1384 Sell
100-DMA   1.1393 Sell
200-DMA   1.1517 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2967/GBP, high of US$1.3079/GBP and settled the day up by 0.122% to close at US$1.3054/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3090-1.2790 with targets at 1.3010-1.2950-1.2910 and 1.2850-1.2790. Buy above 1.3010-1.2790 with targets 1.3090-1.3120 and 1.3170-1.3220 with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2950
S2     1.2910
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3080
R2     1.3120
R3     1.3170-1.3220

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.102

Buy
20-DMA   1.2995 Sell
50-DMA   1.2839 Buy
100-DMA   1.2879 Sell
200-DMA   1.3003 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.90/USD and settled the day down by 0.008% at JPY110.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-110.02
S2     109.90
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.60
R2     112.25
R3     112.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.265 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   110.03 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

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