AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Friday, driven by a rally in Chinese markets after index publisher MSCI announced it would boost the proportion of mainland shares in its global benchmarks, while strong U.S. economic data helped the dollar higher. That, along with strength in other markets in the region, helped push MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up more than 0.3 percent. The boost in mainland stocks on Friday follows a strong run for Chinese shares, which posted their strongest month in nearly four years in February, largely driven by investor hopes for government stimulus and policy support, as well as optimism over U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday fueled concerns over trade talks between the United States and China, warning that he could walk away from a trade deal with China if it were not good enough. But in subsequent comments Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow called progress in the negotiations “fantastic” and said the countries were “heading towards a remarkable, historic deal.” Mixed messages on trade combined with the collapse of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on denuclearization, and data from China showing slowing factory activity to pressure U.S. stocks. Better-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter had little impact on U.S. stocks. Gross domestic product rose 2.9 percent for the year, just shy of the 3 percent goal set by the Trump administration. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday that it will take time to see how much the U.S. economy is slowing, supporting views of the Fed’s rate-hike holiday at least through to June.
  • The U.S. economy fell short of the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual growth target in 2018 despite $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and a government spending blitz, and economists say growth will only slow from here. A better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter pushed gross domestic product up 2.9 percent for the year, just shy of the goal, Commerce Department data showed on Thursday. President Donald Trump has touted the economy as one of the biggest achievements of his term and declared last July that his administration had “accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” On the campaign trail, Trump boasted that he could boost annual economic growth to 4 percent, a goal that analysts always said was unachievable. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter after advancing at a 3.4 percent pace in the July-September period. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.3 percent rate in the fourth quarter. Growth in 2018 was the strongest since 2015 and better than the 2.2 percent logged in 2017. The expansion will be the longest on record in July. The stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, which reflected solid consumer and business spending, was despite many headwinds, including financial market volatility and the United States’ trade war with China, raising optimism that an anticipated slowdown this year would not be abrupt. The fiscal stimulus is believed to have peaked sometime in the fourth quarter. December economic data such as retail sales, exports, homebuilding and business spending on equipment weakened sharply. Consumption continues to be underpinned by a strong labor market, with inflation-adjusted income at the disposal of households jumping at a 4.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter compared to a 2.6 percent pace in the prior period. Business spending on equipment accelerated in the fourth quarter from the prior period, growing at a 6.7 percent rate, after losing speed since the first quarter of 2018. The trade deficit widened further as a combination of the U.S.-China trade dispute, strong dollar and weakening global demand restrained export growth. The trade tensions also led businesses to hoard imports. The trade shortfall subtracted 0.22 percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP growth after slicing off 2 percentage points in the July-September period. With consumer spending slowing, some of the imports ended up in warehouses, accelerating the pace of inventory accumulation. Inventories increased at a $97.1 billion rate in the fourth quarter after rising at an $89.8 billion pace in the July-September quarter. Inventory investment added 0.13 percentage point to GDP growth last quarter after contributing 2.33 percentage points in the prior period.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday as markets tightened amid output cuts by producer club OPEC, but surging U.S. supply and a global economic slowdown prevented crude from climbing further. In Venezuela, oil exports have plunged by 40 percent to around 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) since the U.S. government slapped sanctions against its petroleum industry on Jan. 28.This drop comes as the OPEC, of which Venezuela is a founding member, has led efforts since the start of the year to withhold around 1.2 million bpd of supply to prop up prices. Despite this, there are signs that point to a more amply supplied market heading further into 2019. The U.S. Energy Department said on Thursday it was offering up to 6 million barrels of crude from national emergency reserves to raise funds to modernize the U.S. strategic oil reserves. Additionally, U.S. crude output has hit a record of more than 12 million bpd, pushing exports to an unprecedented 3.6 million bpd in February. On the demand side, a Reuters poll showed analysts expect global fuel demand to slow this year amid a broad economic slowdown. China's February factory activity fell for a third month as the world's second-largest economy continued to struggle with weak export orders, a private survey showed on Friday. The weakness is being felt across the region. South Korea's exports contracted at their steepest pace in nearly three years in February as demand from its major market China cooled further in yet another sign of faltering momentum in Asia's fourth-largest economy. Despite this, fuel consumption especially in Asia's developing economies, which are key drivers of global oil demand, is so far holding up.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1.316-1,325 1,334 1.342-1,351
Silver-XAG 16.00-16.40 17.00 17.40-18.00
Crude Oil 57.50-58.00 59.00 59.60
EURO/USD 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3310-1.3350 1.3440 1.3500
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25-112.90 113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,300 1,294-1280
Silver-XAG 15.60--15.40 15.10 14.70
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1250 1.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3170 1.3120-1.3080
USD/JPY 111.60-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (1st March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1327.34/oz and low of US$1312.65/oz. Gold down by 0.573% at US$1314.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1298) and breakage below will call for 1290-1280. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1325-1364 keeping stop loss closing above 1364, targeting 1316-1309 and 1298-1288. Buy above 1309-1288 with risk below 1288, targeting 1323-1334-1342 and 1351-1358.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,309
S2     1,300
S3     1,294-1280
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.316-1,325
R2     1,334
R3     1.342-1,351

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.966

Buy
20-DMA   1319.05 Buy
50-DMA  

1298.94

Buy
100-DMA   1262.77 Buy
200-DMA   1247.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.473 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.260 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.63/oz and low of US$15.58/oz. Silver settled down by 0.128% at US$15.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.22), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 15.90-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60--15.40
S2     15.10
S3     14.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.00-16.40
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.868 Buy
20-DMA   15.81 Buy
50-DMA   15.52 Buy
100-DMA   14.98 Buy
200-DMA   15.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.300 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.105 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.42/bbl, intraday low of US$57.42/bbl and settled up by 0.386% to close at US$57.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.50-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting 57.00-56.00-55.50and 55.10-54.80. Buy above 57.00-55.00 with risk daily closing below 55.00 and targeting 57.50-58.00 and 59.00-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50-58.00
R2     59.00
R3     59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.681 Sell
20-DMA   55.28 Sell
50-DMA   52.20 Buy
100-DMA   55.71 Sell
200-DMA   62.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.916 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.129 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1359/EUR, high of US$1.1421/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0087% to close at US$1.1373/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460 and 1.1500. Sell below 1.1380-1.1500 targeting 1.1330-1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380
R2     1.1420-1.1460
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.616 Buy
20-DMA   1.1344 Sell
50-DMA   1.1386 Sell
100-DMA   1.1388 Sell
200-DMA   1.1509 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3254/GBP, high of US$1.3320/GBP and settled the day down by 0.397% to close at US$1.3264/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3250-1.3170-1.3120 and 1.3080-1.3010. Buy above 1.3250-1.3010 with targets 1.3310-1.3350-1.3400 and 1.3440-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.3010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3170
S3     1.3120-1.3080

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3310-1.3350
R2     1.3440
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.507

Buy
20-DMA   1.3012 Sell
50-DMA   1.2908 Buy
100-DMA   1.2887 Sell
200-DMA   1.2994 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0065 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.50/USD and settled the day up by 0.432% at JPY111.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.25 with risk above 112.25 targeting 110.20-109.90-109.50 and 109.10-108.50. Long positions above 110.20-108.50 with targets of 109.80-110.20 and 110.60-111.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25-112.90
R3     113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.265 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   110.03 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

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