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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares eased on Thursday, with caution prevailing as investors awaited some kind of resolution to Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, while the euro remained under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. Adding to concerns about the talks was data that showed the U.S. goods trade deficit surged to a record high in 2018 as strong domestic demand pulled in imports, despite the Trump administration’s “America First” policies aimed at shrinking the gap. Other U.S. data out on Wednesday suggested some slowing in the labor market, though the pace of job gains remains more than enough to drive the unemployment rate down. The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 183,000 in February after surging 300,000 in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls advancing 189,000 in February. The government’s more comprehensive employment report for February is scheduled for release on Friday. Also weighing on investor sentiment were broader concerns about growth after the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development cut forecasts again for the global economy in 2019 and 2020. Investors are now looking ahead to the ECB’s board meeting later on Thursday. The central bank is expected to slash growth forecasts and give its strongest signal yet that fresh stimulus is coming in the form of more cheap loans. In the currency market, the euro traded at $1.1304, hovering near a two-week low on expectations that the ECB could suggest offering cheap long-term loans for banks. The loans, known more formally as Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs), are expected to boost troubled euro zone lenders. The Canadian and Australian dollar sank to two-month lows on Wednesday as traders scaled back holdings on expectations policy-makers would leave interest rates alone in the foreseeable future or even lower them to counter their softening economies.
  • Forex traders are paying close attention to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy review later on Thursday, to see what it will do to cushion a slowdown in the Eurozone economy. Traders are also keeping an eye on U.S. President Donald Trump’s newfound eagerness to forge a final trade deal with China. Reuters reported that some traders expect signals from the ECB of a delay in rate hikes until next year and a relaunch of long-term bank loans soon to counteract an economic slowdown. Hope that the trade dispute between China and the U.S. will finally come to an end boosted market sentiment. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Trump is pushing for a trade deal with China, which could help him with the 2020 re-election campaign. Investors are awaiting a final deal result that could end the year-long trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released disappointing growth data for the last quarter. GDP grew 0.2%, below the 0.3% that had been widely expected. The slower growth has contributed to anticipation of a rate cut this year. The Australian dollar also took a hit last month after the RBA stepped back from a long-standing tightening bias. On top of setting a target band for the 2019 economic growth between 6% and 6.5%, the Chinese government also said at the ongoing annual meeting of the National People's Congress that the country is cutting taxes and fees by nearly CNY2 trillion ($300 billion) to support various industries.  Besides the ECB meeting results, traders are now looking to Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls release for February which will point to the strength of the labor market.
  • Oil prices climbed a little in Asia on Thursday morning as investors shrugged off data out of the U.S. that pointed to rising stockpiles of crude. Instead, they focused on supply constraints, include OPEC cuts and sanctions to top producers. All told, oil prices are up by as much as 27% from their lows in late December. In no small measure, the increases have been driven by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which continues to stick to production cuts of around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). At the same time, sanctions against OPEC members Venezuela and Iran are also constraining the global supply. Reuters quoted sources that said OPEC is likely to push back their decision of whether or not to extend the output cut agreement to June from April. On the other hand, U.S. supply is rising rapidly. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that inventories of crude were up by 7.1 million barrels to 452.9 barrels in the week to March 1. The level is about 4% higher than average during this time of year, the EIA said. A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute had reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels in the same week to 451.5 million, significantly higher than the expected increase of 1.2 million barrels. Data from the EIA is due later on Wednesday. On Friday, Baker Hughes is expected to release its weekly count of active oil rigs in the U.S.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1.316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.40-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 57.00 57.50 58.00-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1330 1.1380 1.1420-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3250 1.3310-1.3350
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25-112.90 113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,282 1,276 1,267-1.260
Silver-XAG 15.00-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 56.50-56.00 55.50 55.10-54.30
EURO/USD 1.1270 1.1210-1.1160 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.3170-1.3120 1.3075 1.3010-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.60-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (7th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1290.84/oz and low of US$1283.56/oz. Gold down by 0.0807% at US$1286.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1266) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1294-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1282-1276 and 1267-1260. Buy above 1282-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,282
S2     1,276
S3     1,267-1.260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1.316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.4786

Buy
20-DMA   1312.74 Sell
50-DMA  

1301.74

Sell
100-DMA   1266.24 Buy
200-DMA   1247.07 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.473 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.260 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.14/oz and low of US$15.03/oz. Silver settled down by 0.370% at US$15.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.15), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.40-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.40-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.40-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.491 Buy
20-DMA   15.60 Sell
50-DMA   15.60 Sell
100-DMA   15.04 Buy
200-DMA   15.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.105 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$56.62/bbl, intraday low of US$55.69/bbl and settled down by 0.141% to close at US$56.40/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting 56.50-56.00-55.50 and 55.10-54.80. Buy above 56.00-54.30 with risk daily closing below 54.30 and targeting 57.50-58.00 and 59.00-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50-56.00
S2     55.50
S3     55.10-54.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00
R2     57.50
R3     58.00-59.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.283 Sell
20-DMA   55.84 Buy
50-DMA   53.28 Buy
100-DMA   54.96 Buy
200-DMA   62.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.916 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.864 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1284/EUR, high of US$1.1323/EUR and settled the day down by 0.008% to close at US$1.1305/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1270-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090, targeting 1.1305-1.1380-1.1420 and 1.1460-1.1500. Sell below 1.1305-1.1500 targeting 1.1265-1.1210 and 1.1160-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1270
S2     1.1210-1.1160
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1305-1.1330
R2     1.1380
R3     1.1420-1.1460

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.1001 Buy
20-DMA   1.1325 Sell
50-DMA   1.1379 Sell
100-DMA   1.1376 Sell
200-DMA   1.1501 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3123/GBP, high of US$1.3180/GBP and settled the day down by 0.159% to close at US$1.3169/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3500 with targets at 1.3170-1.3120 and 1.3080-1.3010. Buy above 1.3250-1.3010 with targets 1.3200-1.3250-1.3310 and 1.3350-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.3010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3170-1.3120
S2     1.3075
S3     1.3010-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3310-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.352

Buy
20-DMA   1.3058 Sell
50-DMA   1.2961 Buy
100-DMA   1.2887 Sell
200-DMA   1.2991 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.91/USD and settled the day down by 0.0945% at JPY111.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25-112.90
R3     113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.265 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   110.03 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

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