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Daily Market Lookup

  • The pound jumped and Asian shares rallied on Tuesday after the European Commission agreed to changes in a Brexit deal ahead of a vote in the British parliament on a divorce agreement. European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to additional assurances in an updated Brexit deal with British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday, but warned UK lawmakers would not get a third chance to endorse it. Sterling, which had risen ahead of the talks between May and Juncker, extended gains in hopes the changes may be enough to sway rebellious British lawmakers who have threatened to vote down May’s plan again on Tuesday. A lower likelihood of crashing out of the EU with no Brexit deal could help to inject some bullish sentiment into equity markets by eliminating one of the three major concerns of global investors, alongside trade and slowing global growth, said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro. Despite slowing domestic economic growth and uncertainty about the outlook for trade negotiations between China and the United States, Chinese markets have been buoyed this year by investors’ expectations of more stimulus to cushion any downturn. Australian shares were up 0.4 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 jumped 1.9 percent, helped by a weaker yen. The amended Brexit deal gave a further boost to investors’ appetite for riskier assets, after global equity indexes climbed overnight on gains in technology stocks and expectations of more stimulus from China.
  • Sterling rallied on Tuesday on speculation that British Prime Minister Theresa May might be closer to securing approval for her Brexit deal after the European Commission agreed to some changes to it ahead of a vote in the British parliament The pound jumped as high as $1.3290 as May won legally binding Brexit assurances from the European Union, in a last ditch attempt to sway rebellious British lawmakers who have threatened to vote down her divorce deal. Yamamoto said the likelihood remained low that British lawmakers would now agree to May's deal in a vote expected later on Tuesday, just over two weeks before Britain's scheduled March 29 departure from the European Union. Most other currencies stayed within familiar trading ranges before U.S. February inflation figures due at 1230 GMT. Market sentiment received a modest boost after data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose moderately in January, lifted by an increase in purchases of building materials and discretionary spending. If May loses the vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday, she has said lawmakers will get a vote on Wednesday on whether to leave the EU without a deal and, if they reject that, then a vote on whether to ask for a limited delay to Brexit. At a joint news conference with E.U. Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker late on Monday, May announced three documents aimed at addressing the most contentious part of the exit deal she agreed in November - the Irish backstop. The Irish backstop is an insurance policy aimed at avoiding controls on the sensitive border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. The euro, which has struggled recently in line with a sputtering euro zone economy, found a measure of support on the improved sentiment and the Brexit news.
  • Oil prices continued to recover on Tuesday, lifted by comments from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih that the desert kingdom will extend the deep supply cuts it has been carrying out on its oil. A Saudi official told Bloomberg on Sunday that the kingdom's crude exports in April will be under 7 million barrels per day. That will be some 30% below the production ceiling of 10.311 million bpd that Saudi Arabia and its allies under the enlarged OPEC+ group agreed to in December to rebalance the market. An end to the kingdom's supply cuts, or for that matter OPEC's, would be unlikely before June, al-Falih added. Oil prices were also boosted by reports over the weekend that the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest oil-consuming nations, have agreed on many crucial issues in the latest trade talks and have held meaningful discussions on foreign exchange. In other news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday that the U.S. is likely to drive global oil supply growth over the next five years. U.S. oil output would jump to 19.6 million bpd by 2024 from 15.5 million last year, the Paris-based agency said. U.S. crude oil output will rise nearly 2.8 million bpd, growing to 13.7 million bpd in 2024 from an average of just under 11 million bpd in 2018, the IEA said, making the United States the biggest oil producer in the world by far.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1,309 1.316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.40-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 57.50 58.00-59.00 59.60
EURO/USD 1.1270 1.1305 1.1330-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3300 1.3350 1.3400-1.3445
USD/JPY 111.60-111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,282 1,276 1,267-1.260
Silver-XAG 15.00-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1210-1.1160 1.1090 1.1065-1.1020
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3120 1.3075 1.3010-1.2950
USD/JPY 111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (12th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1299.07/oz and low of US$1290.41/oz. Gold down by 0.309% at US$1293.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1266) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1294-1282-1276 and 1267-1260. Buy above 1294-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1300-1309 and 1316-1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,294-1,282
S2     1,276
S3     1,267-1.260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1.316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.530

Buy
20-DMA   1310.46 Sell
50-DMA  

1302.75

Sell
100-DMA   1268.37 Buy
200-DMA   1267.73 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.813 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.34/oz and low of US$15.34/oz. Silver settled up by 0.01% at US$15.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.15), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.40-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.40-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.40-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.288 Buy
20-DMA   15.55 Sell
50-DMA   15.60 Sell
100-DMA   15.05 Buy
200-DMA   15.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$57.21/bbl, intraday low of US$56.21/bbl and settled up by 1.33% to close at US$56.99/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting 56.50-56.00-55.50 and 55.10-54.80. Buy above 56.00-54.30 with risk daily closing below 54.30 and targeting 57.50-58.00 and 59.00-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50
R2     58.00-59.00
R3     59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.172 Sell
20-DMA   56.40 Buy
50-DMA   53.97 Buy
100-DMA   54.58 Buy
200-DMA   61.85 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.801 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1221/EUR, high of US$1.1257/EUR and settled the day up by 0.133% to close at US$1.1248/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1210-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1270-1.1305 and 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460. Sell below 1.1270-1.1380 targeting 1.1210-1.1170-1.1090 and 1.1065-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1210-1.1160
S2     1.1090
S3     1.1065-1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270
R2     1.1305
R3     1.1330-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.963 Buy
20-DMA   1.1311 Sell
50-DMA   1.1365 Sell
100-DMA   1.1368 Sell
200-DMA   1.1494 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2959/GBP, high of US$1.3189/GBP and settled the day up by 1.594% to close at US$1.3188/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3250-1.3445 with targets at 1.3200-1.3120-1.3075 and 1.2950-1.2900. Buy above 1.3200-1.2950 with targets 1.3250-1.3300-.13350 and 1.3400-1.3445 with stop loss closing below 1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3120
S2     1.3075
S3     1.3010-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3250-1.3300
R2     1.3350
R3     1.3400-1.3445

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.601

Buy
20-DMA   1.3089 Sell
50-DMA   1.2985 Buy
100-DMA   1.2988 Sell
200-DMA   1.2988 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.30/USD and settled the day up by 0.071% at JPY111.20/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60-111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.265 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   110.03 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

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