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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares drifted lower on Wednesday as a risk-off mood settled on markets, while a frazzled pound awaited its fate ahead of yet another make-or-break parliamentary vote on Brexit. Risk appetites had soured after British lawmakers crushed Prime Minister Theresa May’s European Union divorce deal, forcing parliament to decide within days whether to back a no-deal Brexit or seek a last-minute delay. Lawmakers voted against May’s amended Brexit deal by 391 to 242 as her last-minute talks with EU chiefs on Monday to assuage her critics’ concerns ultimately proved fruitless Parliament will vote later Wednesday on whether to leave the EU with no deal, and if that fails, a further vote on Thursday will decide whether to extend the Brexit deadline. A soft U.S. inflation report for February burnished bonds while tarnishing the dollar. Annual consumer price inflation slowed to its lowest since September 2016 at 1.5 percent. The data merely reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will stay patient on rates and could even sound more dovish at its policy meeting next week.
  • The British Pound edged up on Wednesday in Asia even after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal suffered another defeat in Parliament. The defeat brought fresh uncertainties and dealt a further blow to the chances of an orderly Brexit. Joseph Capurso, senior currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a Wednesday morning note that if U.K. lawmakers voted to leave the European Union without a deal, the pound could fall as much as 4 to 8%. Lawmakers are set to vote again this week to decide on a “no-deal” exit plan, or whether to extend the March 29 departure date. The pound edged up on Wednesday after turbulence following the defeat of British Prime Minister Theresa May's European Union exit deal, but investors braced for more volatility ahead of additional Brexit proceedings. The British Parliament on Tuesday rejected May's deal to quit the European Union for a second time, deepening the country's political crisis days before the planned departure date on March 29. The EU's 28 government leaders will decide at a March 21-22 summit whether to extend the negotiating period beyond the current exit date on March 29. The dollar was on the back foot after data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace, nudging Treasury yields to two-month lows. Gold was also supported by some soft February inflation data from the U.S., underlining the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current wait-and-see stance. Speaking last Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell justified the “wait-and-see approach” given that there was “nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures.”
  • Oil prices rose on Wednesday, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts from producer cartel OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Oil prices have been pushed up this year by supply cuts led by the Middle East dominated producer group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Markets have been further tightened by the implementation of U.S. sanctions against oil exports from OPEC-members Iran and Venezuela. In Venezuela, the worst blackout on record has left most of the South American country without power for six days, leaving hospitals struggling to keep equipment running, food rotting in the tropical heat and exports from the country's main oil terminal stranded. Despite this, not all indicators point to an ever tighter market. National Australia Bank (NAB) said the oil market outlook was mixed, with downside price risk coming from economic growth concerns and strong oil supply growth from the United States, with OPEC's supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela acting as price drivers. U.S. crude oil production is expected to average about 12.30 million bpd in 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday. That's up from an average of around 11 million bpd in 2018 . U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged the oil industry on Tuesday to work with the Trump administration to promote U.S. foreign policy interests, especially in Asia and in Europe, and to punish what he called "bad actors" on the world stage. Addressing top executives of the world's largest energy companies and oil ministers in Houston, Pompeo said in prepared remarks that America's newfound shale oil and natural gas abundance would "strengthen our hand in foreign policy." The United States has imposed harsh sanctions in the past several months on two major world oil producers, Venezuela and Iran. Pompeo said Washington would use all its economic tools to help deal with the situation in Venezuela, which is mired in a years-long economic crisis and where socialist President Nicolas Maduro is maintaining power despite being disavowed by the United States and about 50 other countries.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1.316-1,325 1,331
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 57.50 58.00-59.00 59.60
EURO/USD 1.1305 1.1330-1.1380 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3120-1.3200 1.3250 1.3300-1.3350
USD/JPY 111.60-111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,294 1,282 1,276-1,267
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 57.00-56.50 56.00 55.50-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1210 1.1160 1.1090-1.1065
GBP/USD 1.3075 1.3010-1.2950 1.2900
USD/JPY 111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (13th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1302.06/oz and low of US$1291.95/oz. Gold down by 0.628% at US$1301.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1266) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1309-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1300-1294-1282 and 1276-1267. Buy above 1300-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1309-1316 and 1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,294
S2     1,282
S3     1,276-1,267
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1.316-1,325
R3     1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.08

Buy
20-DMA   1310.66 Sell
50-DMA  

1303.26

Sell
100-DMA   1269.25 Buy
200-DMA   1246.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.813 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.46/oz and low of US$15.27/oz. Silver settled up by 1.047% at US$15.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.15), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.7008 Buy
20-DMA   15.54 Sell
50-DMA   15.60 Sell
100-DMA   15.07 Buy
200-DMA   15.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$57.21/bbl, intraday low of US$56.21/bbl and settled up by 1.33% to close at US$56.99/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.60-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting 57.00-56.50-56.00 and 55.50-55.10. Buy above 57.00-54.30 with risk daily closing below 54.30 and targeting 57.50-58.00 and 59.00-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.50-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50
R2     58.00-59.00
R3     59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.172 Sell
20-DMA   56.40 Buy
50-DMA   53.97 Buy
100-DMA   54.58 Buy
200-DMA   61.85 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.801 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1246/EUR, high of US$1.1304/EUR and settled the day up by 0.346% to close at US$1.1287/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1210-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1270-1.1305 and 1.1380-1.1420-1.1460. Sell below 1.1270-1.1380 targeting 1.1210-1.1170-1.1090 and 1.1065-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1270-1.1210
S2     1.1160
S3     1.1090-1.1065

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1305
R2     1.1330-1.1380
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.256 Buy
20-DMA   1.1314 Sell
50-DMA   1.1365 Sell
100-DMA   1.1366 Sell
200-DMA   1.1492 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3004/GBP, high of US$1.3288/GBP and settled the day down by 0.879% to close at US$1.3072/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3120-1.3350 with targets at 1.3075-1.3010 and 1.2950-1.2900. Buy above 1.3075-1.2900 with targets 1.3120-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3075
S2     1.3010-1.2950
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3120-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.607

Buy
20-DMA   1.3095 Sell
50-DMA   1.2993 Buy
100-DMA   1.2888 Sell
200-DMA   1.2986 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.10/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.46/USD and settled the day up by 0.116% at JPY111.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60-111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.265 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   110.03 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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