AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks stepped ahead on Friday as sentiment improved on a report that more progress has been made in U.S.-China trade talks and after UK lawmakers voted to delay a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by telephone with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, with the two sides making further substantive progress on trade talks, Xinhua news agency said on Friday. Yet, the prospect of the trade talks taking longer than expected tempered the cheer, and there was still no clarity on how close the two economic powers are on reaching an agreement Mnuchin said on Thursday that a summit to seal a trade deal between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will not happen at the end of March as previously discussed because more work is needed in negotiations. Sterling retreated 0.75 percent on Thursday as investors geared up for British Prime Minister Theresa May to once more try and win approval for her Brexit deal. Her third chance to get the divorce deal approved came after British lawmakers voted on Thursday to seek a delay in Britain’s exit from the European Union. The dollar held gains having snapped its four-day losing streak to a group of six major peers. The yen showed little response to the Bank of Japan’s widely expected decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Not surprisingly, the central bank offered a bleaker assessment of exports and output, as global demand waned.
  • The British pound edged up on Friday in Asia after lawmakers approved a motion setting out the option to ask the European Union (EU) for a short delay if parliament can agree on a Brexit deal by March 20, or a longer delay if no deal can be agreed in time. Earlier this week, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal suffered a second defeat in Parliament. A new vote on her twice-rejected deal is likely next week, according to various media reports. Lawmakers must now decide whether to back a deal they feel does not offer a clean break from the EU, or reject it and accept that Brexit could be watered down or even thwarted by a long delay. The BoJ tweaked its assessment of the Japanese economy, citing growing risks from the slowdown in the external sector. U.S.-China trade talks returned to focus after U.S. President Donald Trump said during a St. Patrick’s Day reception on Thursday that the U.S. will probably know in the next three or four weeks whether a trade deal with China is possible. Citing three sources briefed on the discussion, CNBC reported that China is planning a state visit by President Xi Jinping and that Beijing wants to have all the details of the trade deal fully ironed out before its leader sits down with Trump. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that a trade summit between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would not happen at the end of March as had been previously suggested because there was still more work to do in trade negotiations. Trump said whether a trade deal can be reached with China would probably be known in the next three or four weeks. U.S. data on Thursday underscored growing pressure on the U.S. economy and kept the dollar in check. The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week while new home sales fell more than expected in January.
  • Prices of the safe-haven gold prices edged up on Friday in Asia even after tensions and uncertainty over Brexit seemed to have eased. Global equities traded mostly higher following the latest news. Gold prices, which in general move in opposite direction as the stocks due to their safe-haven nature, dropped below the key $1,300 level overnight but managed to claw back some of the losses today. In other news, Sino-U.S. trade talks returned to focus today after U.S. President Donald Trump signalled optimism by saying "we are doing very well with China talks" and that "we are getting what we have to get." He also said "one way or the other, we are going to know over the next three or four weeks."
  • Oil prices were near flat on Friday in Asia after rising to near four-month highs the previous day. Traders’ attention now turns to the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its monthly publication due later today, with analysts expecting it to underline concerns on oil demand Meanwhile, markets are also closely monitoring the latest development on the Sino-U.S. trade front. U.S. President Donald Trump said during a St. Patrick’s Day reception on Thursday that the U.S. will probably know "in the next three or four weeks" whether a trade deal with China is possible. Official data showed this week that crude oil use in China, the world's biggest oil importer, rose 6.1% in the first two months of 2019 compared with a year earlier. Oil prices rose to four-month highs on Thursday, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and as data showed U.S. output slowed last week, boosting optimism that a global surplus is shrinking. In its closely watched monthly oil-market report, the OPEC said its crude output had fallen by 221,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February from January, to average 30.55 million bpd. The bulk of OPEC’s cuts in February came from Venezuela, which is facing an economic and political crisis and is currently subject to U.S. oil sanctions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,309 1,316 1,325-1,331
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 59.00-59.50 60.20 61.00
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1380 1.1420 1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3250 1.3300-1.3350 1.3400
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,294 1,282 1,276-1,267
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 58.00 57.50-57.00 56.50
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1270 1.1210 1.1160-1.1090
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3120 1.3075 1.3010-1.2950
USD/JPY 111.60-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (15th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1310.28/oz and low of US$1292.80/oz. Gold down by 0.998% at US$1295.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1266) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1294-1282 and 1276-1267. Buy above 1294-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1309-1316 and 1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,294
S2     1,282
S3     1,276-1,267
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300-1,309
R2     1,316
R3     1,325-1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.000

Buy
20-DMA   1308.89 Sell
50-DMA  

1303.64

Sell
100-DMA   1270.59 Buy
200-DMA   1246.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.8783 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.44/oz and low of US$15.12/oz. Silver settled down by 1.517% at US$15.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.15), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.918 Buy
20-DMA   15.49 Sell
50-DMA   15.58 Sell
100-DMA   15.08 Buy
200-DMA   15.12 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$59.01/bbl, intraday low of US$58.28/bbl and settled up by 0.221% to close at US$58.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.60-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting 57.00-56.50-56.00 and 55.50-55.10. Buy above 57.00-54.30 with risk daily closing below 54.30 and targeting 57.50-58.00 and 59.00-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.00
S2     57.50-57.00
S3     56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-59.50
R2     60.20
R3     61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.172 Sell
20-DMA   56.40 Buy
50-DMA   53.97 Buy
100-DMA   54.58 Buy
200-DMA   61.85 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.801 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1293/EUR, high of US$1.1336/EUR and settled the day down by 0.229% to close at US$1.1303/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1405), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1305-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090, targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1305 and 1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1450 targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1210 and 1.1170-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1305-1.1270
S2     1.1210
S3     1.1160-1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330-1.1380
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.246 Buy
20-DMA   1.1317 Sell
50-DMA   1.1363 Sell
100-DMA   1.1364 Sell
200-DMA   1.1488 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3206/GBP, high of US$1.3330/GBP and settled the day down by 0.398% to close at US$1.3257/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2812) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3250-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3120-1.3075 and 1.3010-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200-1.2950 with targets 1.3250-1.3300-1.3350 and 1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3120
S2     1.3075
S3     1.3010-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3250
R2     1.3300-1.3350
R3     1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.293

Buy
20-DMA   1.3146 Sell
50-DMA   1.3020 Buy
100-DMA   1.2896 Sell
200-DMA   1.2986 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.82/USD and settled the day up by 0.341% at JPY111.64/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.03), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.688 Buy
20-DMA   111.22 Buy
50-DMA   110.15 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Sell
200-DMA   111.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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