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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares pulled ahead on Monday while bonds were in demand globally on mounting speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will sound decidedly dovish at its policy meeting this week. There is much talk Fed policymakers will lower their interest rate forecasts, or “dot plots”, to show little or no further tightening this year. Also expected is more detail on a plan to stop cutting the Fed’s holdings of nearly $3.8 trillion in bonds. The two-day meeting ends with a news conference on Wednesday. As a result, yields on three and five-year Treasuries are dead in line with the effective Fed funds rate, while futures imply a better-than-even chance of a rate cut by year end. Data on Friday showed U.S. manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February and factory activity in New York state hit nearly a two-year low this month, offering further evidence of a sharp slowdown in economic growth early in the first quarter. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is scrambling to get support in parliament for her Brexit deal. May has only three days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc’s leaders on Thursday with something to offer them in return for more time.
  • The dollar licked its wounds on Monday after soft U.S. data increased bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this year while the pound hovered near nine-months high on hopes for a delay in Britain's exit from the European Union. Weaker-than-forecast U.S. economic data on Friday cemented expectations the Fed could strike a dovish stance this week, sending U.S. bond yields down to 10-week lows. U.S. manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent in February, weakening for a second straight month, while factory activity in New York state was softer than expected this month with an index reading of 3.7. The 10-year Treasuries yield fell to as low as 2.580 percent, its lowest since Jan. 4, while Fed funds futures priced in about 40 percent chance of a rate cut this year, compared to almost zero percent seen earlier this month. Against this background, many investors expect the Fed to suggest rates will be on hold in the near future and to unveil a plan to end its balance sheet runoff later this year in its meeting ending on Wednesday. The British pound stood not far from last week's nine-month high of $1.3380, supported by relief that a no-deal Brexit will likely be averted. It last stood at $1.3292. It is not clear if British Prime Minister Theresa May can secure a support for her Brexit deal in the parliament, which has twice rejected her offer by a wide margin. May has only three days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc's leaders on Thursday. May is warning hard-line Brexiteers that unless they approved her Brexit divorce deal, Britain's exit from the European Union could face a long delay and could involve taking part in European parliament elections.
  • Oil prices dipped on Monday amid concerns that an economic downturn may dent fuel consumption, but crude markets remain broadly supported by supply cuts led by producer group OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. "The greatest downside risk to our oil price view is demand weakness on slower economic growth. Our base case is that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019... A synchronized global slowdown in growth could push global demand growth to below 1 million bpd," Bernstein Energy said on Monday.U.S. manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February, in a sign that the world's biggest economy has been slowing down in the first quarter. In Asia, Japan's exports fell for a third straight month in February in a sign of growing strain from slowing global demand. Despite this, oil prices have gained around a quarter since the start of the year amid U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia - known as OPEC+ - have pledged to withhold 1.2 million bpd in supply to prop up prices. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that balancing oil markets was far from done as inventories were still high. Russia also said production cuts would stay in place at least until June. As a result, Bernstein forecast an inventory draw of 37 million barrels in the first quarter for the 36 member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which comprises most industrialized nations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday it expected oil markets to be in a modest deficit from the second quarter of 2019. Key for the supply and demand balance will be the United States, where crude production has soared by around 2 million bpd over the past year, thanks largely to an onshore boom in shale formation drilling. The number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the United States has been falling in 2019, and hit its lowest level since April 2018 last week, at 833 operating rigs. However, U.S. crude oil production still increased at the start of 2019, hitting a record 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. Output has since dipped back to 12 million bpd, but that still makes America the world's biggest crude oil producer.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,316 1,325-1,331
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 59.00-59.50 60.20 61.00
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1380 1.1420 1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3350 1.3400 1.3480
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,294 1,282 1,276-1,267
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 58.00 57.50-57.00 56.50
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1270 1.1210 1.1160-1.1090
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010
USD/JPY 111.40-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (18th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1306.33/oz and low of US$1293.92/oz. Gold up by 0.481% at US$1302.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1270) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1309-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1300-1294-1282 and 1276-1267. Buy above 1300-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1309-1316 and 1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,294
S2     1,282
S3     1,276-1,267
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1,316
R3     1,325-1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.2665

Buy
20-DMA   1309.10 Sell
50-DMA  

1303.72

Sell
100-DMA   1270.63 Buy
200-DMA   1246.86 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.8783 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.37/oz and low of US$15.14/oz. Silver settled up by 0.911% at US$15.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.005 Buy
20-DMA   15.49 Sell
50-DMA   15.58 Sell
100-DMA   15.08 Buy
200-DMA   15.12 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$59.21/bbl, intraday low of US$58.00/bbl and settled down by 0.170% to close at US$58.68/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.00-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.50-57.00and 56.50-56.00. Buy above 58.00-56.50 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.00-59.60 and 60.20-61.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.00
S2     57.50-57.00
S3     56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-59.50
R2     60.20
R3     61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.756 Sell
20-DMA   56.94 Buy
50-DMA   53.65 Buy
100-DMA   54.32 Buy
200-DMA   61.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.036 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1299/EUR, high of US$1.1343/EUR and settled the day up by 0.203% to close at US$1.1326/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1305-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090, targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1305 and 1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1450 targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1210 and 1.1170-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1305-1.1270
S2     1.1210
S3     1.1160-1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330-1.1380
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.614 Buy
20-DMA   1.1318 Sell
50-DMA   1.1363 Sell
100-DMA   1.1364 Sell
200-DMA   1.1488 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3202/GBP, high of US$1.3299/GBP and settled the day up by 0.241% to close at US$1.3289/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3021) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3300-1.3480 with targets at 1.3250-1.3200-1.3120 and 1.3075-1.3010. Buy above 1.3200-1.2950 with targets 1.3250-1.3300-1.3350 and 1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3120
S3     1.3075-1.3010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3350
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.543

Buy
20-DMA   1.3148 Sell
50-DMA   1.3021 Buy
100-DMA   1.2897 Sell
200-DMA   1.2986 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.89/USD and settled the day dowm by 0.134% at JPY111.49/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.15), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.679 Buy
20-DMA   111.21 Buy
50-DMA   110.15 Buy
100-DMA   111.33 Sell
200-DMA   111.42 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   62.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.247 Buy

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