AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares held tight ranges on Tuesday ahead of the a Federal Reserve policy meeting, but were broadly supported near six-month highs on expectations the central bank might strike a dovish tone, while fresh Brexit worries dogged the pound. With global economic growth appearing to slow, traders were focused on the Fed meeting, which kicks off its two-day policy meeting later in the day, for clues about the likely path of U.S. borrowing costs. Investors will particularly look to see whether policymakers have sufficiently lowered their interest rate forecasts to more closely align their “dot plot”, a diagram showing individual policymakers’ rate views for the next three years. Also expected is more detail on a plan to stop cutting the Fed’s holdings of nearly $3.8 trillion in bonds. May’s Brexit plans were thrown into further turmoil on Monday when the speaker of parliament ruled that she could not put her divorce deal to a new vote unless it was re-submitted in fundamentally different form. May has only two days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc’s leaders on Thursday with something to offer them in return for more time. Meanwhile, senior diplomats said the European Union leaders could hold off making any final decision on any Brexit delay when they meet in Brussels later this week, depending on what exactly May asks them for.
  • The dollar was under pressure on Tuesday, weighed by growing expectations the Federal Reserve would shift to a more accommodative policy stance this week and concerns about slower U.S. economic growth. The dollar has weakened in recent sessions on growing expectations the Fed will strike a dovish tone at its two-day policy meeting due to start later on Tuesday. Many investors expect the Fed, which has raised rates four times last year, to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged and stick to its pledge of a "patient" approach to monetary policy. Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, said while the market is expecting more accommodative sentiments from the meeting, equity markets were unlikely to react positively to such a development. Sterling also gained, rising 0.1 percent to $1.3268. It had seesawed overnight after the speaker of Britain's parliament said Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal could not be voted on again unless a different proposal was submitted. The Bank of England is expected to leave its interest rate outlook unchanged at a policy meeting on Thursday due to the deep uncertainty over Britain's decision to leave the European Union. The euro was down a tad at $1.1335. Investors' focus on Tuesday was also on Germany's ZEW economic index for March, due for release around 1000 GMT. The German economy, Europe's largest, barely avoided recession in the final quarter of last year, as the negative impact from global trade disputes and Brexit weighed on a decade of expansion.
  • OPEC and its ally Russia are betting that their mantra of production cuts will continue kicking oil prices higher and the market seems to be buying that -- for now. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 57 cents, or 1%, at $59.09 per barrel after hitting a four-month high of $59.54 in response to remarks by the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia that the two partners under the OPEC+ alliance will be more aggressive than ever in reducing output. WTI's prospects have improved dramatically since last week, reducing its discount to global oil benchmark Brent after government data indicated that oil output in the United States was slowing. The gap between the two benchmarks now stands at slightly more than $8 compared to the about-$10 differential that existed for months prior. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters in the Azerbaijan city of Baku at the weekend, where OPEC+ met for a preliminary review of its production cuts, that the alliance's work in so-called market rebalancing was far from over. Falih has been cautious not to sound like a price hawk since the OPEC+ campaign began in January, stressing that there should be adequate oil supply as much as there shouldn't be a glut (although Saudi officials privately agree with economists' views that the kingdom needs Brent to be at $80 a barrel at least to fund its budget). After Europe and China, the U.S. economy has been sounding its own weak warnings lately, raising doubts about global oil demand. Falih said in Baku that uncertainties over Iranian and Venezuelan supplies were also complicating the market rebalancing. The U.S. holds the keys to production in those two OPEC members through sanctions, giving the Trump administration, which wants lower oil prices, the advantage of surprising the cartel at any time with unexpected decisions. With all this, cuts above the 1.2 million barrels per day originally agreed by OPEC+ will probably be needed, Falih said. Riyadh, so far, has been the only one in the 25-member alliance to exceed that target every month, an achievement the Saudi energy minister has never failed to flag to the market. He said Sunday that the Saudis won’t be the only ones carrying that burden That last line appeared to be a gentle nudge to his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak that Moscow needed to do more. As if on cue, Novak responded, saying Russia will raise its compliance to cuts hereon, explaining it had difficulty turning down its production earlier due to winter freeze.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,316 1,325-1,331
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 59.50-60.20 61.00 61.64
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3350 1.3400 1.3480
USD/JPY 111.40-111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,294 1,282 1,276-1,267
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.00-58.00 57.50 57.00-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1270 1.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010
USD/JPY 111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (19th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1306.66/oz and low of US$1298.16/oz. Gold up by 0.1244% at US$1303.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1270) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1309-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1300-1294-1282 and 1276-1267. Buy above 1300-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1309-1316 and 1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,294
S2     1,282
S3     1,276-1,267
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1,316
R3     1,325-1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.327

Buy
20-DMA   1306.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1304.46

Sell
100-DMA   1272.09 Buy
200-DMA   1246.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.8783 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.40/oz and low of US$15.21/oz. Silver settled up by 0.261% at US$15.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.50-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.280 Buy
20-DMA   15.44 Sell
50-DMA   15.57 Sell
100-DMA   15.09 Buy
200-DMA   15.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$59.50/bbl, intraday low of US$58.37/bbl and settled up by 0.902% to close at US$59.25/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.50-61.70 with stop loss at 61.70; targeting 59.00-58.00-57.50 and 57.00-56.50. Buy above 59.00-56.50 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.60-60.20 and 61.00-61.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00-58.00
S2     57.50
S3     57.00-56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.50-60.20
R2     61.00
R3     61.64

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.756 Sell
20-DMA   56.94 Buy
50-DMA   53.65 Buy
100-DMA   54.32 Buy
200-DMA   61.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.916 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.036 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1318/EUR, high of US$1.1358/EUR and settled the day up by 0.114% to close at US$1.1334/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420 and 1.1450-1.1500. Sell below 1.1350-1.1500 targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1210 and 1.1170-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1270
S3     1.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1350-1.1380
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.277 Buy
20-DMA   1.1320 Sell
50-DMA   1.1358 Sell
100-DMA   1.1363 Sell
200-DMA   1.1484 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3183/GBP, high of US$1.3299/GBP and settled the day down by 0.383% to close at US$1.3243/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3021) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3300-1.3480 with targets at 1.3250-1.3200-1.3120 and 1.3075-1.3010. Buy above 1.3200-1.2950 with targets 1.3250-1.3300-1.3350 and 1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3120
S3     1.3075-1.3010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3350
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.543

Buy
20-DMA   1.3148 Sell
50-DMA   1.3021 Buy
100-DMA   1.2897 Sell
200-DMA   1.2986 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.29/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.62/USD and settled the day down by 0.0269% at JPY111.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.15), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.499 Buy
20-DMA   111.28 Buy
50-DMA   110.25 Buy
100-DMA   111.32 Sell
200-DMA   111.43 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.080 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.321 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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