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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slipped from six-month highs on Wednesday as investors took profits ahead of a policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve which is expected to shed more light on its interest rate plans for the rest of the year. Some market players said selling was triggered by a report of U.S. concerns that China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks. Still, on the whole, many market players held on to hopes of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing as officials from both sides remained locked in negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a Trump administration official said on Tuesday. Confidence among Asian companies remained near three-year lows in the first quarter as the U.S.-China trade dispute dragged on, pulling down a global economy that is already on a downward path, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey found. The Fed is widely expected keep rates steady later in the day, putting the main market focus on its policymakers’ rate projections for the next few years. Since the beginning of year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank would be patient - interpreted as code word for holding off on a rate hike - on signs of slowing economic growth in the United States and many parts of the world. The Fed is also expected to lay out a plan to stop shrinking its $4 trillion balance sheet, or so-called quantitative tightening. Many policy makers have suggested the Fed is likely to conclude the process and stabilize its bond holdings by the end of this year.Expectations of a more cautious Fed have dented the U.S. dollar, which has already been under pressure this year after Powell all but signaled a pause to the tightening cycle at the previous meeting The British pound remained hostage to headlines on Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to ask the European Union to delay Brexit by at least three months after her plan to hold a third vote on her deal was thrown into disarray by a surprise intervention from the speaker of parliament. May had earlier warned parliament that if it did not ratify her deal, she would ask to delay Brexit beyond June 30, a step that Brexit’s advocates fear would endanger the entire divorce. On the other hand, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has said an extension would only make sense if it increased the chances of May’s deal being ratified by Britain’s House of Commons.
  • The dollar rose against most of its peers on Wednesday as reports of renewed tension in U.S.-China trade negotiations supported safe-haven bids, although the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later due in the day limited the greenback's gains. The Australian dollar slipped a quarter of a percent to $0.7070 on a decline in 10-year bond yields and after Bloomberg reported that some U.S. officials expressed concern that China is pushing back against U.S. demands in trade talks. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks with Chinese counterparts. Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities, said he did not think market participants were expecting a quick resolution to the Sino-U.S. trade spot any time soon. Investors' immediate focus was on the Fed to see whether the central bank will affirm its commitment to "patient" monetary policy and for clues about the likely path of U.S. borrowing costs The Fed is due to make its rate announcement at 1800 GMT on Wednesday and is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged. Most currencies remain within well-trodden trading ranges before the Fed decision, as market participants were cautious after taking cues from U.S. data offering new signs the world's top economy is on a path of slower growth. New orders for U.S.-made goods rose less than expected in January and shipments fell for a fourth straight month, offering more evidence of a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity, overnight data showed. More positive signs were evident in Germany as a survey by the ZEW research institute indicated the mood among German investors improved more than expected in March, as a potential delay to Britain's exit from the European Union helped lift sentiment.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday in Asia as uncertainty on the Sino-U.S. trade front intensified. Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that U.S. officials are concerned that China might refuse to accept U.S. demands in the countries’ ongoing trade talks. Meanwhile, Chinese negotiators want to receive more assurances that tariffs imposed on Chinese goods would be lifted once a deal is struck. The report raised concerns that trade talks between the two sides might stall, and that outlook for global economic growth might be clouded as a result Oil prices received some support on Tuesday, with the May contract for Brent hitting a four-month peak at $68.2, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise draw in crude oil inventory of 2.133 million barrels for the week ending March 15. Later on Wednesday, traders’ focus will likely shift to official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on U.S. crude stockpiles. The EIA is expected to cite a U.S. crude stockpile build of 600,000 barrels for the week ended March 15, versus an unexpected draw of 3.9 million barrels in the week prior. Oil prices have jumped about 30% this year, underpinned by aggressive production cuts carried out by the 14-member OPEC headed by Saudi Arabia and another 10 allies of the oil-producing club led by Russia Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on the weekend that he was optimistic about continued commitment to the oil supply cut agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC members, more commonly known as the OPEC+. Saudi Arabia has reportedly pledged bigger-than-needed cuts in its April shipments, while Russia also said it is planning to accelerate its progressive reductions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,316 1,325-1,331
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 59.50-60.20 61.00 61.64
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3350 1.3400 1.3480
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,294 1,282 1,276-1,267
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.00-58.00 57.50 57.00-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1305 1.1270 1.1210-1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010
USD/JPY 111.40-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (20th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1306.66/oz and low of US$1302.26/oz. Gold up by 0.217% at US$1306.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1270) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1309-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1300-1294-1282 and 1276-1267. Buy above 1300-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1309-1316 and 1323-1334.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,294
S2     1,282
S3     1,276-1,267
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1,316
R3     1,325-1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.327

Buy
20-DMA   1306.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1304.46

Sell
100-DMA   1272.09 Buy
200-DMA   1246.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.8783 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.43/oz and low of US$15.30/oz. Silver settled up by 0.261% at US$15.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.50-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.280 Buy
20-DMA   15.44 Sell
50-DMA   15.57 Sell
100-DMA   15.09 Buy
200-DMA   15.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$59.01/bbl, intraday low of US$58.28/bbl and settled up by 0.01% to close at US$58.75/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.50-61.70 with stop loss at 61.70; targeting 59.00-58.00-57.50 and 57.00-56.50. Buy above 59.00-56.50 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.60-60.20 and 61.00-61.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00-58.00
S2     57.50
S3     57.00-56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.50-60.20
R2     61.00
R3     61.64

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.089 Sell
20-DMA   56.94 Buy
50-DMA   53.65 Buy
100-DMA   54.32 Buy
200-DMA   61.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.916 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.036 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1333/EUR, high of US$1.1360/EUR and settled the day up by 0.123% to close at US$1.1348/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1330-1.1160 with risk below 1.1160, targeting 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420 and 1.1450-1.1500. Sell below 1.1350-1.1500 targeting 1.1305-1.1270-1.1210 and 1.1170-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1330-1.1305
S2     1.1270
S3     1.1210-1.1160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1350-1.1380
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.277 Buy
20-DMA   1.1320 Sell
50-DMA   1.1358 Sell
100-DMA   1.1363 Sell
200-DMA   1.1484 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3244/GBP, high of US$1.3310/GBP and settled the day up by 0.143% to close at US$1.3262/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3021) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3300-1.3480 with targets at 1.3250-1.3200-1.3120 and 1.3075-1.3010. Buy above 1.3200-1.2950 with targets 1.3250-1.3300-1.3350 and 1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3120
S3     1.3075-1.3010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3350
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.543

Buy
20-DMA   1.3148 Sell
50-DMA   1.3021 Buy
100-DMA   1.2897 Sell
200-DMA   1.2986 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.972 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.15/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.47/USD and settled the day down by 0.0367% at JPY111.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.15), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.063 Buy
20-DMA   111.33 Buy
50-DMA   110.32 Buy
100-DMA   111.31 Sell
200-DMA   111.44 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   48.080 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.274 Buy

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