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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares hit 6-1/2-month highs on Friday after upbeat U.S. data and optimism in the tech sector lifted Wall Street stocks, helping calm some of the jitters sparked by the Federal Reserve’s cautious outlook on the world’s biggest economy. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index soared 3.5 percent, coming within a striking distance from its all-time high marked about a year ago. A U.S. trade delegation headed by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will visit China on March 28-29, which will be followed by a trip by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to Washington in early April. Thursday’s U.S. economic data was also upbeat as initial claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected and mid-Atlantic factory activity rebounded sharply. The figures mollified worries about the U.S. economic outlook after the Fed on Wednesday surprised investors by adopting a sharp dovish stance, anticipating no further interest rate hikes this year and ending its balance sheet rolloffs. He added, however, the Fed’s cautious stance on raising rates could backfire by creating uncertainty in the economy and hurt the U.S. central bank’s credibility. Another cloud hanging over markets was Britain’s fraught moves to exit from the European Union, as the British pound was bruised anew by rising worries about a no-deal Brexit. U leaders said Britain could leave the European Union without a deal on April 12 if lawmakers fail next week to back Prime Minister Theresa May’s agreement with Brussels. EU leaders gave May an extra two months, until May 22, to leave if she wins next week’s vote in parliament.
  • The U.S. dollar fell on Friday in Asia as traders digested the latest news on Brexit and Sino-U.S. trade development. High-level officials including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are due to meet in Beijing for a fresh round of talks next week. It was reported earlier in the week that some U.S. negotiators are concerned that Beijing is pushing back against some American demands in trade talks. Chinese officials are not happy with the lack of assurance from the Trump administration that tariffs on their goods would be lifted, even after agreeing to changes to their intellectual-property policies last month. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.3136 after the European Union delayed the Brexit date by two weeks if U.K. parliament does not endorse U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal deal next week. If May manages to win the backing of British lawmakers, who have previously rejected her deal twice, the EU will allow the U.K. to remain in the bloc until May 22.
  • The palladium bull remains irrepressible, but the gold bug is having trouble staying on the bronco as the U.S. labor market lends a modicum of support to a dollar all but forsaken by the Fed. The Federal Reserve's reassurance of a benign interest rate regime in the U.S. through 2019, communicated through its decision on not to raise rates again in March, battered the dollar on Wednesday and added froth to in the gold and palladium markets. Gold also rallied early in the day, notching a month's high above $1,300 in early trade, but it fell back as the dollar bolted up on data showing the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. The dollar was also bolstered by another report indicating a sharp rebound in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region this month from heavy falls earlier. Some fund managers said they were staying off gold for now.
  • Oil prices eased from 2019 peaks on Friday as economic growth concerns weighed on sentiment, pausing a three-month rally driven by OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Economic growth has slowed across Asia, Europe and North America, potentially denting fuel consumption. Oil prices this year have been propped up by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies such as Russia, often referred to as 'OPEC+'. Canadian investment bank RBC Capital Markets said oil was "still below the fiscal breakeven level in a number of OPEC countries", meaning that many producers have an interest in further propping up the market RBC said Russia was only a reluctant partner in the supply cuts, but would "ultimately opt to preserve the arrangement and retain a leadership role of a 21-nation group that accounts for around 45 percent of global oil output". Beyond OPEC and Russia's supply policy, oil prices have also been boosted by U.S. sanctions on OPEC-members Iran and Venezuela. Iranian crude oil shipments have averaged just over 1 million bpd in March, down from 1.3 million bpd in February and a 2018 peak of at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before the U.S. sanctions were announced. Venezuelan crude oil production has also dwindled amid U.S. sanctions and an internal political and economic crisis, plunging from a high of more than 3 million bpd at the start of the century to not much more than 1 million bpd currently. Further price increases have also been crimped by a jump of more than 2 million bpd in U.S. crude oil production since early 2018 to a record 12.1 million bpd, making the United States the world's biggest producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Soaring U.S. output has resulted in increasing exports, which have doubled over the past year to more than 3 million bpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the United States would become a net crude oil exporter by 2021.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,310-1.316 1,325 1,331-1,338
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 60.20-61.00 61.64 62.50
EURO/USD 1.1380-1.1430 1.1470 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3250 1.3300 1.3350-1.3400
USD/JPY 111.90 112.25 112.90-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1,294-1,282 1,276
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.50-59.00 58.00 57.50-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1350 1.1330 1.1305-1.1270
GBP/USD 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010 1.2981
USD/JPY 111.40-111.00 110.60 110.02-109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1320.34/oz and low of US$1303.23/oz. Gold down by 0.248% at US$1309.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1270) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1310-1338 keeping stop loss closing above 1338, targeting 1300-1294 and 1282-1276. Buy above 1300-1276 with risk below 1276, targeting 1316-1325-1331 and 1338-1346.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300
S2     1,294-1,282
S3     1,276
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,310-1.316
R2     1,325
R3     1,331-1,338

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.820

Buy
20-DMA   1305.72 Sell
50-DMA  

1305.72

Sell
100-DMA   1274.72 Buy
200-DMA   1247.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   62.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.230 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.62/oz and low of US$15.36/oz. Silver settled up by 0.129% at US$15.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.50-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.064 Buy
20-DMA   15.40 Sell
50-DMA   15.56 Sell
100-DMA   15.11 Buy
200-DMA   15.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0498 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$60.40/bbl, intraday low of US$58.68/bbl and settled down by 0.233% to close at US$59.86/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.20-62.50 with stop loss at 62.50; targeting 59.50-59.00-58.00 and 57.50-57.00. Buy above 59.50-56.50 with risk daily closing below 56.50 and targeting 60.20-61.00 and 61.70-62.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.50-59.00
S2     58.00
S3     57.50-57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.20-61.00
R2     61.64
R3     62.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.949 Sell
20-DMA   57.52 Buy
50-DMA   55.35 Buy
100-DMA   54.03 Buy
200-DMA   61.63 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.005 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.297 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1341/EUR, high of US$1.1436/EUR and settled the day up by 0.659% to close at US$1.1372/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1380-1.1270 with risk below 1.1270, targeting 1.1380-1.1430-1.1450 and 1.1480-1.1500. Sell below 1.1380-1.1500 targeting 1.1350-1.1330 and 1.1305-1.1270 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350
S2     1.1330
S3     1.1305-1.1270

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380-1.1430
R2     1.1470
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.729 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Sell
50-DMA   1.1351 Sell
100-DMA   1.1365 Sell
200-DMA   1.1478 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3145/GBP, high of US$1.3226/GBP and settled the day down by 0.621% to close at US$1.3110/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3063) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3400 with targets at 1.3120-1.3070 and 1.3010-1.2980. Buy above 1.3120-1.2980 with targets 1.3200-1.3250-1.3300and 1.3350-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3120
S2     1.3075-1.3010
S3     1.2981

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3250
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3350-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.543

Buy
20-DMA   1.3190 Sell
50-DMA   1.3063 Buy
100-DMA   1.2917 Buy
200-DMA   1.2981 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.29/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.95/USD and settled the day up by 0.186% at JPY110.84/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.15), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 111.60-111.00-110.20 and 109.90-109.50. Long positions above 111.60-109.00 with targets of 111.90-112.25-112.90 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40-111.00
S2     110.60
S3     110.02-109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.25
R3     112.90-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.855 Buy
20-DMA   111.30 Buy
50-DMA   110.40 Buy
100-DMA   111.26 Sell
200-DMA   111.44 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   27.080 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.114 Buy

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