AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slipped on Wednesday, giving up small gains made the previous day as investors tried to come to terms with a sharp shift in U.S. bond markets and the implications for the world’s top economy. Wall Street’s main indexes tallied solid gains on Tuesday but finished below their session highs in a reflection of the underlying concerns about the economic outlook. The inversion spooked many investors as this phenomenon has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, triggering a dramatic selloff in stock markets globally late last week and a stampede into longer-dated U.S. government debt. The silver lining for stock bulls is that in the past, it has usually taken many months before the United States slipped into recession after the curve was first inverted. Yet the signs from a raft of economic data, including a set of indicators on Tuesday, weren’t encouraging. Home building fell more than expected in February as construction of single-family homes dropped to near a two-year low while the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board fell unexpectedly. Many major economies in the world, including China, Europe and Japan, are already slowing down, not helped by uncertainties stemming from trade frictions between the U.S. and China as well as Brexit. A senior International Monetary Fund official said on Tuesday trade tensions between the U.S. and China have caused huge amounts of economic uncertainty and could cut Asia’s economic growth by 0.9 percentage point. Investors are left wondering what to expect on Britain’s plan to exit from the European Union, with potential scenarios spanning from a cancellation of Brexit to a no-deal exit. Prime Minister Theresa May will address Conservative Party lawmakers, possibly to set out a timetable for her departure, to win support for her twice-rejected Brexit deal as the parliament prepares to vote on a variety of possible options.
  • U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in February as construction of single-family homes dropped to near a two-year low, offering more evidence of a sharp slowdown in economic activity early in the year. Concerns over the economy were also underscored by other data on Tuesday showing consumer confidence ebbing in March, with households a bit pessimistic about the labor market. The economy is facing rising headwinds, including slowing global growth, fading fiscal stimulus, trade tensions and uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the European Union. Those concerns contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to bring its three-year campaign to tighten monetary policy to an abrupt end, as it abandoned projections for any interest rate hikes this year. Housing starts decreased 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.162 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. The percent decline was the largest in eight months, and bad weather could have contributed to the sharp drop in homebuilding last month. Homebuilding fell in three of the four regions in February. Housing starts data for January and December were revised higher. Building permits fell 1.6 percent to a rate of 1.296 million units in February. While that was the second straight monthly drop in permits, they are now outpacing starts, which suggests a pickup in homebuilding in the months ahead. Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, tumbled 17.0 percent to a rate of 805,000 units in February, the lowest level since May 2017. The percentage drop in single-family homebuilding was the largest since February 2015. Permits to build single-family homes were unchanged in February at a pace of 821,000. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment jumped 17.8 percent to a rate of 357,000 units in February. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes fell 4.2 percent to a pace of 475,000 units last month. The weak housing data strengthens the view that the economy lost considerable momentum early in the first quarter. Retail sales rose moderately in January after tumbling in December, and the manufacturing sector is struggling, with output falling in February for a second straight month. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting gross domestic product rising at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. The economy grew at a 2.6 percent in the October-December period.
  • Oil prices crept up on Wednesday, extending the previous session's rise, but gains were kept in check amid growing fears over the impact of a global economic slowdown on demand. That is unlikely to come until there is a conclusion on the U.S.-China trade talks, he added, referring to negotiations that restart on Thursday as the world's two largest economies seek to end an eight-month old trade war. Oil rose on Tuesday as Venezuela's main oil export port of Jose and its four crude upgraders were unable to resume operations following a massive power blackout on Monday, the second in a month. Prices have risen more than 25 percent this year, supported by supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers, along with U.S. sanctions on exports from Venezuela and Iran. But worries about demand have limited oil's rally as manufacturing data from Asia, Europe and the United States pointed to an economic slowdown. The American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization, said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 1.9 million barrels in the latest week, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.2 million barrels. The market was waiting to see whether official figures due later on Wednesday would confirm the API data. Hedge funds and other money managers have increased bets that demand for oil will be sustained, even as the market rallied last week.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,325 1,331-1,338 1,344
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 60.20 61.00-61.64 62.50
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3250 1.3300 1.3350-1.3400
USD/JPY 110.60 111.00 111.40-111.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,16-1,310 1,300 1,294-1,282
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.50-59.00 58.00 57.50-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150
GBP/USD 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010 1.2981
USD/JPY 110.02-109.55 109.05 108.45-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (27th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1323.19/oz and low of US$1312.64/oz. Gold down by 0.470% at US$1315.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1270) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1344 keeping stop loss closing above 1344, targeting 1310-1300-1294 and 1282-1276. Buy above 1310-1276 with risk below 1276, targeting1325-1331 and 1338-1346.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,16-1,310
S2     1,300
S3     1,294-1,282
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,325
R2     1,331-1,338
R3     1,344

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.922

Buy
20-DMA   1302.85 Sell
50-DMA  

1307.05

Sell
100-DMA   1276.53 Buy
200-DMA   1247.43 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.54/oz and low of US$15.37/oz. Silver settled down by 0.554% at US$15.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.50-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.509 Buy
20-DMA   15.33 Sell
50-DMA   15.55 Sell
100-DMA   15.14 Buy
200-DMA   15.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0218 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$60.38/bbl, intraday low of US$59.07/bbl and settled up by 1.454% to close at US$60.01/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.20-62.50 with stop loss at 62.50; targeting 59.50-59.00-58.00 and 57.50-57.00. Buy above 59.50-56.30 with risk daily closing below 56.30 and targeting 60.20-61.00 and 61.70-62.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.50-59.00
S2     58.00
S3     57.50-57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.20
R2     61.00-61.64
R3     62.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.014 Sell
20-DMA   58.12 Buy
50-DMA   55.95 Buy
100-DMA   53.87 Buy
200-DMA   61.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.005 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.194 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1262/EUR, high of US$1.1325/EUR and settled the day down by 0.380% to close at US$1.1269/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250
S2     1.1200-1.1175
S3     1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.876 Buy
20-DMA   1.1310 Sell
50-DMA   1.1341 Sell
100-DMA   1.1360 Sell
200-DMA   1.1473 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3157/GBP, high of US$1.3260/GBP and settled the day up by 0.090% to close at US$1.3203/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3063) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3400 with targets at 1.3120-1.3070 and 1.3010-1.2980. Buy above 1.3120-1.2980 with targets 1.3200-1.3250-1.3300and 1.3350-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3120
S2     1.3075-1.3010
S3     1.2981

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3250
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3350-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.329

Buy
20-DMA   1.3195 Sell
50-DMA   1.3077 Buy
100-DMA   1.2922 Buy
200-DMA   1.2980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.68/USD and settled the day up by 0.591% at JPY110.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.60-111.90 with risk above 111.90 targeting 110.10-109.55-109.05 and 108.45-108.00. Long positions above 110.00-107.75 with targets of 110.60-111.00 and 111.40-112.25 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.02-109.55
S2     109.05
S3     108.45-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.60
R2     111.00
R3     111.40-111.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.6177 Buy
20-DMA   111.18 Buy
50-DMA   110.49 Buy
100-DMA   111.17 Sell
200-DMA   111.17 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   39.080 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0465 Buy

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