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  • The U.S. dollar rose on Thursday in Asia following more dovish comments from central banks. The British pound was flat after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would resign if Parliament supports her deal. Dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi sent worrying signals on slowing euro zone growth and provided a lift for the safe-haven dollar. Earlier in the day, Draghi said the ECB could delay raising interest rates and still had other tools at its disposal to support the economy. But he admitted that the euro zone was experiencing a "persistent deterioration of external demand." Members of Parliament voted on Wednesday on eight possible Brexit options, but rejected all of them, leaving May’s deal, which was already rejected twice in House of Commons, the only one in play. May is widely expected to bring a third vote to Parliament in the coming days, according to various media. Earlier, May has admitted she lacks support for putting her Brexit withdrawal deal to a third vote. The euro's upside was limited after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said a hike in interest rates could be further delayed. Growth-sensitive currencies have taken a beating recently on rising risks to the global economy, highlighted by the shakeout in U.S. bond yields which signaled a future recession there. Sterling was on the back foot after an offer by British Prime Minister Theresa May to quit to get her European Union divorce deal through parliament failed to win over key opponents of the agreement.
  • The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by the most in 10 months in January as automotive exports rose and China likely boosted purchases of soybeans, driving the first increase in exports in four months and offering a respite to a flood of dour data on the economy. The politically sensitive goods trade gap with China - a focus of President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda - narrowed by the most in nearly three years as imports from the world’s No. 2 economy plunged, Commerce Department data released on Wednesday showed. It totaled $34.5 billion in January, the narrowest since June. The reduced gap with China was the leading force behind a nearly 15 percent improvement in the overall U.S. trade deficit to $51.1 billion. That larger-than-expected narrowing in the overall trade deficit was a bright spot after a raft of weak data, including retail sales, manufacturing and homebuilding, had economists anticipating a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit declined 14.6 percent, the largest drop since March 2018, to $51.1 billion also as increased domestic oil production and lower crude prices curbed the import bill. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade gap narrowing to $57.0 billion in January. Washington last year imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods imported from China, with Beijing striking back with duties on $110 billion worth of American products, including soybeans and other commodities.
  • The U.S. economy faces “notable” risks and the central bank can take a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said on Wednesday. “Over the medium term, I see the biggest risk coming from slower growth abroad, particularly in China, the euro area, and the United Kingdom,” George said in a speech delivered in New York. George said the U.S. economy’s fundamentals still appeared sound and that job growth would likely rebound from a weak performance in February. She said domestic factors, including the waning effects of U.S. government stimulus, also contributed to a median projection by Fed policymakers falling to 2.1 percent growth for 2019 at its most recent meeting last week, a full percentage point below the roughly 3 percent growth that was seen in 2018.
  • Oil prices slid on Thursday after data showed an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude stocks increased by 2.8 million barrels last week. Markets previously expected a decrease of 1.2 million barrels. The data disappointed oil bulls counting on a third-straight week of draws after a total inventory slide of nearly 14 million barrels in the two previous weeks. The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories fell by 2.88 million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of 2.78 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 2.08 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of 0.9 million. Despite today’s fall, Oil prices managed to rebound in March and have rallied about 25% since the beginning of the year. Lower-than-expected supply both in the OPEC and the U.S. were cited as supporting oil markets. Crude oil production from the OPEC was down 1.5mbpd year-on-year to 30.5mbpd in February. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production stagnated at around 11.9mbpd for four consecutive months since last November. “We remain positive in further moderate recovery in oil price given possible trade agreement between US and China which would support recovery in global economic growth in 2H19,” ICBC International Research Limited said in a note. U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Crude exports fell by 506,000 barrels per day, the EIA said. Offering support for prices, oil output from Russia, OPEC's biggest non-member ally, averaged 11.3 million barrels per day so far in March, a source said, compared with 11.34 million barrels a day the previous month.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,316-1,325 1,331 1,338-1,344
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 59.50-60.20 61.00 61.64-62.50
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3250 1.3300 1.3350-1.3400
USD/JPY 110.60 111.00 111.40-111.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,300 1,294-1,282
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.00 58.00 57.50-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150
GBP/USD 1.3120 1.3075-1.3010 1.2981
USD/JPY 109.05 109.05 108.45-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1319.15/oz and low of US$1308.12/oz. Gold down by 0.453% at US$1309.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1278) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1316-1344 keeping stop loss closing above 1344, targeting 1309-1300-1294 and 1282-1276. Buy above 1300-1276 with risk below 1276, targeting1325-1331 and 1338-1346.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,309
S2     1,300
S3     1,294-1,282
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,316-1,325
R2     1,331
R3     1,338-1,344

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.612

Buy
20-DMA   1301.97 Buy
50-DMA  

1307.63

Buy
100-DMA   1278.09 Buy
200-DMA   1247.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.46/oz and low of US$15.25/oz. Silver settled down by 0.779% at US$15.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.00 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.40 and 17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.50-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.599 Buy
20-DMA   15.29 Sell
50-DMA   15.54 Sell
100-DMA   15.15 Buy
200-DMA   15.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$60.23/bbl, intraday low of US$58.84/bbl and settled down by 0.965% to close at US$59.43/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.00-62.50 with stop loss at 62.50; targeting 59.00-58.00 and 57.50-57.00. Buy above 59.00-56.30 with risk daily closing below 56.30 and targeting 60.20-61.00 and 61.70-62.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00
S2     58.00
S3     57.50-57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.50-60.20
R2     61.00
R3     61.64-62.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.014 Sell
20-DMA   58.18 Buy
50-DMA   56.07 Buy
100-DMA   53.84 Buy
200-DMA   61.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.005 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.090 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1241/EUR, high of US$1.12850/EUR and settled the day down by 0.168% to close at US$1.1250/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250
S2     1.1200-1.1175
S3     1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.957 Buy
20-DMA   1.1305 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1359 Sell
200-DMA   1.1471 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3153/GBP, high of US$1.3268/GBP and settled the day down by 0.348% to close at US$1.3157/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3063) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3400 with targets at 1.3120-1.3070 and 1.3010-1.2980. Buy above 1.3120-1.2980 with targets 1.3200-1.3250-1.3300and 1.3350-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3120
S2     1.3075-1.3010
S3     1.2981

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3250
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3350-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.329

Buy
20-DMA   1.3195 Sell
50-DMA   1.3077 Buy
100-DMA   1.2922 Buy
200-DMA   1.2980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.70/USD and settled the day down by 0.15% at JPY110.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.60-111.90 with risk above 111.90 targeting 110.10-109.55-109.05 and 108.45-108.00. Long positions above 110.00-107.75 with targets of 110.60-111.00 and 111.40-112.25 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.05
S2     109.05
S3     108.45-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.60
R2     111.00
R3     111.40-111.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.6177 Buy
20-DMA   111.18 Buy
50-DMA   110.49 Buy
100-DMA   111.17 Sell
200-DMA   111.17 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   39.080 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0465 Buy

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