AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Friday, led by a surge in Chinese equities, on hopes that Washington and Beijing are making progress in trade talks, while global bond yields moved higher after a prolonged slide on worries about the economic outlook. The mood in the markets was brighter after U.S. officials said China has made proposals in trade talks with the United States on a range of issues that go further than it has before, including on forced technology transfer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday he had a “productive working dinner” the previous night in Beijing, kicking off a day of talks aimed at resolving the bitter trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. The 10-year U.S. bond yield edged up to 2.403 percent from a 15-month low of 2.352 percent touched on Thursday after an almost relentless fall since the Fed’s dovish tone last week sparked worries about the U.S. economic outlook. Investors have been on heightened alert since the yield on the 10-year note fell below the three-month U.S. Treasury yield last Friday, an inversion of the yield curve that is widely seen as an indicator of a recession.
  • The U.S. dollar steadied on Friday in Asia even after data showed a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter GDP data. On Thursday, the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2.2% annualised rate in the October-December period. Economists had expected a 2.4% growth rate. The greenback was little impacted following the release of the data as a plunge in the British pound yesterday offered support to the dollar. The fall in the pound came after the U.K. parliament failed to pass any bills that were alternatives to Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit agreement. May will now ask U.K. lawmakers to vote on one part of her Brexit deal, the Withdrawal Agreement, which sets out the terms of the U.K.'s departure from the EU during the transition period. The EU said it would only grant a Brexit delay until May 22 if the lawmakers back the deal. Failing that, Brexit will be delayed only until April 12. The Prime Minister said yesterday that she would step down if her deal gets passed.On the Sino-U.S. trade front, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the Trump administration is prepared to negotiate with China for months in order to reach a trade deal. He also said the U.S. may lift some of the tariffs on Chinese goods, but not all of them. High-level officials from the two sides, including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He began a two-days meeting in Beijing on Thursday. Mnuchin told reporters that they had a “productive working dinner” yesterday.
  • The dollar was poised on Friday for its strongest gain in three weeks as investors responded positively to a bounce in U.S. Treasury yields and as some of its rivals were hit by dovish signals from their own central banks. With many currencies on the defensive, the dollar has weathered a decline in benchmark Treasury yields to a 15-month low. Against a basket of key rival currencies, the U.S. currency was a shade higher at 97.222. The dollar held strong even as data overnight showed the U.S. economy slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year. U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2.2 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, down from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. The euro and sterling have fallen this week as yields affecting the currencies have plunged, Daiwa Securities' senior currency strategist Yukio Ishizuki said. The single currency has also been weighed down by speculation the European Central Bank will introduce a tiered deposit rate, providing a sign that policymakers plan to keep interest rates low for longer. Sterling licked its wounds on Friday, last trading up 0.2 percent at $1.3068 after sinking more than 1 percent overnight as the prospects for a swift agreement on Brexit faded. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar edged lower to 110.62 yen. On Friday, official data showed Japan's industrial output rose 1.4 percent in February from the previous month, up for the first time in months, though that came after a sharp 3.4 percent slump in January. The country's jobless rate fell in the same month to 2.3 percent, underscoring a tight labor market despite tepid wage gains and inflation. Investors will be focused on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks on Friday and will also be watching Federal Reserve policymakers scheduled to speak later in the day. China will sharply expand market access for foreign banks and securities and insurance companies, especially in its financial services sector, Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday, as senior U.S. officials arrived in Beijing for more trade talks.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, putting the crude markets on pace to post their biggest first quarter gain since 2009. Oil prices have been supported for much of 2019 by the efforts of the OPEC and non-affiliated allies like Russia, together known as OPEC+, who have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million bpd of supply this year to prop up markets. The price surge triggered a call by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday for OPEC to boost production to lower prices. OPEC+ are meeting in June to discuss whether to continue withholding supply or not. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia favors cuts for the full year while Russia, which only reluctantly joined the agreement, is seen to be less keen to keep holding back beyond September. However, the OPEC+ cuts are not the only reason for rising oil prices this year, with analysts also pointing to U.S. sanctions on oil exporters and OPEC members Iran and Venezuela as reasons for the surge. Despite the surging prices, analysts are expressing concerns about future oil demand amid worrying signs the global economy may move into a recession. Given the OPEC+ cuts, however, Bank of America said it expected oil prices to rise in the short-term, with Brent prices forecast to average $74 per barrel in the second quarter. Heading toward 2020, however, the bank warned of a recession.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th March 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1,316-1,3255
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 60.20 61.00 61.64-62.50
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3120-1.3200 1.3250 1.3300-1.3350
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-111.90 111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th March 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,276 1,269 1,261
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 59.50-59.00 58.00 57.50-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900
USD/JPY 110.60-110.02 109.55 109.05-108.45

Intra-Day Strategy (29th March 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1312.27/oz and low of US$1288.51/oz. Gold down by 1.451% at US$1290.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1278) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1276-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1325 keeping stop loss closing above 1325, targeting 1284-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284-1,276
S2     1,269
S3     1,261
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1,316-1,3255

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.0966

Buy
20-DMA   1300.80 Buy
50-DMA  

1307.40

Buy
100-DMA   1278.53 Buy
200-DMA   1247.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   9.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.32/oz and low of US$14.96/oz. Silver settled down by 1.704% at US$14.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.598 Buy
20-DMA   15.26 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.15 Buy
200-DMA   15.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$59.58/bbl, intraday low of US$58.28/bbl and settled down by 0.117% to close at US$59.53/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.00-62.50 with stop loss at 62.50; targeting 59.00-58.00 and 57.50-57.00. Buy above 59.00-56.30 with risk daily closing below 56.30 and targeting 60.20-61.00 and 61.70-62.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.50-59.00
S2     58.00
S3     57.50-57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.20
R2     61.00
R3     61.64-62.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.2052 Sell
20-DMA   58.38 Buy
50-DMA   56.19 Buy
100-DMA   53.82 Buy
200-DMA   61.45 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.078 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1213/EUR, high of US$1.1260/EUR and settled the day by 0.222% to close at US$1.1225/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1297 Sell
50-DMA   1.1335 Sell
100-DMA   1.1357 Sell
200-DMA   1.1469 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3032/GBP, high of US$1.3197/GBP and settled the day down by 0.858% to close at US$1.3044/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3088) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3120-1.3400 with targets at 1.3070-1.3010 and 1.2980-1.2900. Buy above 1.3050-1.2900 with targets 1.3120-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3070-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3120-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.329

Buy
20-DMA   1.3171 Sell
50-DMA   1.3088 Buy
100-DMA   1.2922 Buy
200-DMA   1.2979 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.431 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.82/USD and settled the day up by 0.170% at JPY110.63/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-111.90 with risk above 111.90 targeting 110.60-110.10-109.55 and 109.05-108.45. Long positions above 110.60-107.75 with targets of 111.00 -111.40 and 111.90-112.25 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-110.02
S2     109.55
S3     109.05-108.45

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-111.90
R3     111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.921 Buy
20-DMA   111.08 Buy
50-DMA   110.51 Buy
100-DMA   111.14 Sell
200-DMA   111.44 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   58.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0465 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING