AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asia shares extended their rally on Tuesday as positive Chinese and U.S factory activity surveys aided investor confidence, and the ebbing concerns over the global economy spurred selling of safe-haven U.S. bonds as yields rose from 15 month troughs. Investors cheered U.S. data overnight showing improvements in manufacturing activity last month and construction spending for February, which overshadowed an unexpected drop in retail sales. The upbeat readings reinforced positive sentiment garnered from earlier data showing China’s manufacturing sector surprisingly returned to growth for the first time in four months in March. The rare bright news for the global economy comes in the wake of persistent worries over cooling demand across the world, with the Sino-U.S. tariff war, slowing trade and subdued corporate profits prompting investors to dump risk assets over the past several months. Fujito said he expected the market will need to catch up with consumer sentiment in the United States at some point as the below-par retail sales figures indicated it was not as good as thought. The encouraging data on manufacturing activity in the world’s two biggest economies spurred some investors to scale back holdings of safe-haven bonds, triggering the biggest single-day jump in U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields since Jan. 4. In the currency market, sterling took a knock after British lawmakers came no nearer to resolving the chaos surrounding the country’s departure from the European Union. The British parliament failed on Monday to find a majority for any proposed alternative to Prime Minister Theresa May’s divorce deal, though support for an alternative that included a customs union was far higher than for May’s deal.
  • The British pound fell on Tuesday in Asia after U.K. lawmakers rejected all alternative options to Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Traders are closely monitoring further developments on the Brexit after the U.K. parliament again rejected all alternative options to May’s withdrawal deal. The four options that were rejected include a call on the government to negotiate a permanent customs union, the U.K joining the European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area (Common Market 2.0), a confirmatory public vote on the Brexit deal and a choice between no-deal Brexit or revoking Article 50 - stopping Brexit - if the EU does not agree to an extension. The legal default, for now, will be for the U.K. to leave the European Union in 11 days. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged up 0.1% to 96.893. A stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing data was cited as a tailwind for the U.S. dollar. ISM manufacturing data for March showed an uptick to 55.3, handily beating expectations of 54.5. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy.
  • Gold prices slipped on Tuesday in Asia after data suggested China's manufacturing sector was recovering from a sharp slowdown earlier in the year. China's Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), released on Monday, rose to 50.8 from 49.9 in February. That was the strongest reading in eight months and followed an uptick in the official PMI, which tracks mainly state-owned enterprises. Looking ahead, the U.S. March jobs report due on Friday is likely to be in focus. Other data include reports on U.S. retail sales and manufacturing should also receive some attention. News on the Sino-U.S. trade front and developments with Brexit are being closely followed. On Monday, the U.K. Parliament rejected all the options to replace Prime Minister Theresa May’s unpopular deal. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is due to travel to Washington later this week for more trade discussions. High-level officials from both sides, including He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, concluded the latest round of trade talks last week in Beijing. While May is still trying to get her twice-rejected deal through Parliament, the legal default, for now, will be for the U.K. to leave the European Union in 11 days.
  • Oil prices climbed to nearly five-month highs on Tuesday, supported by firm Chinese economic data that eased demand concerns, the possibility of more sanctions against Iran and further Venezuelan supply disruptions. Positive data from the world's biggest economies, the United States and China bolstered prices, with China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly returning to growth for the first time in four months during March, figures showed on Monday.The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded at the strongest pace in eight months in March, the figures showed. Most stock markets in Asia also gained as the stronger manufacturing numbers boosted confidence among investors. On the oil supply side, the U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before, a senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday. Venezuela's Jose crude export terminal has halted operations due to a lack of electricity supply, two sources with knowledge of the situation said, after restarting on Friday following a prolonged blackout. Production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) helped push the group's supply to a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found. The world's biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, over-delivered on the group's supply-cutting pact while Venezuelan output fell further due to U.S. sanctions and earlier power outages.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
2nd April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1,316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 62.00-62.50 63.00 63.70
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3120 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 111.40-111.90 112.50 113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
2nd April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,276 1,269 1,261
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 61.60-61.00 60.20 59.00-58.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2981 1.2900 1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.02 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (2nd April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1296.97/oz and low of US$1286.44/oz. Gold down by 0.362% at US$1287.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1278) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1276-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1325 keeping stop loss closing above 1325, targeting 1284-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284-1,276
S2     1,269
S3     1,261
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1,316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.473

Buy
20-DMA   1300.88 Buy
50-DMA  

1307.61

Buy
100-DMA   1279.96 Buy
200-DMA   1247.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.20/oz and low of US$14.97/oz. Silver settled down by 0.066% at US$15.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.671 Buy
20-DMA   15.27 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Buy
200-DMA   15.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$61.80/bbl, intraday low of US$60.16/bbl and settled up by 2.659% to close at US$61.76/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.00-63.70 with stop loss at 63.70; targeting 61.60-61.00-60.20 and 59.00-58.00. Buy above 61.60-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 61.90-62.50-60.20 and 59.00-58.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.60-61.00
S2     60.20
S3     59.00-58.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00-62.50
R2     63.00
R3     63.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.192 Sell
20-DMA   58.93 Buy
50-DMA   56.53 Buy
100-DMA   53.85 Buy
200-DMA   61.40 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.078 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1203/EUR, high of US$1.1245/EUR and settled the day down by 0.106% to close at US$1.1212/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1297 Sell
50-DMA   1.1335 Sell
100-DMA   1.1357 Sell
200-DMA   1.1469 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3006/GBP, high of US$1.3149/GBP and settled the day up by 0.533% to close at US$1.3103/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2979) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3070-1.2850 with targets at 1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850. Buy above 1.3010-1.2850 with targets 1.3070-1.3120-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2981
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3070-1.3120
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.329

Buy
20-DMA   1.3169 Sell
50-DMA   1.3088 Sell
100-DMA   1.2922 Buy
200-DMA   1.2979 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.431 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.43/USD and settled the day up by 0.297% at JPY111.34/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.02
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-111.90
R2     112.50
R3     113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.424 Buy
20-DMA   111.08 Sell
50-DMA   110.51 Buy
100-DMA   111.14 Sell
200-DMA   111.44 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   76.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0465 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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