AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • World stocks climbed for a fifth session on Wednesday on optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and for a softer British exit from the European Union, while oil prices retreated after an unexpected rise in inventories. U.S. stocks climbed in early trading after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow had said on Tuesday that China and the United States expect to make more headway in trade talks this week. In addition, the Financial Times reported the two sides were drawing closer to a deal. Still, U.S. economic data kept gains on Wall Street in check, as a gauge of the labor market showed private employers added fewer jobs than anticipated in March while a separate report showed services sector activity slowed to a more than 1-1/2-year low, highlighting a loss of momentum in the economy. Aside from trade optimism, European shares were lifted by data out of China that showed activity in its services sector hit a 14-month high and the latest plan by British Prime Minister Theresa May to reach a deal on Brexit. In addition, euro zone retail sales were better than expected in February. Britain’s opposition Labour Party said it had held constructive discussions with Prime Minister Theresa May on breaking the Brexit deadlock. Sterling climbed on the hopes for a Brexit solution while the U.S.-China trade talks optimism bolstered risk appetite and sent the euro higher against the dollar. Signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and decent Chinese and U.S. factory activity data in recent days have boosted sentiment and helped world recession fears recede. On Friday, investors will look at the monthly U.S. payrolls report for a fresh economic catalyst. Generally strong world stocks and hopes of a softer Brexit sparked a sell-off in safe-haven government bonds, with U.S. yields hitting a 1-1/2-week high.
  • The U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan slipped on Thursday in Asia despite recent reports that suggested Beijing and Washington are closing in on a trade agreement. The fall in the dollar and the yuan came despite progress in trade talks and the People’s Bank of China setting higher mid-point reference rates. The Federal Reserve’s decision to abandon all rate hike projections for the rest of 2019 due to concerns on slowing domestic growth might be putting the dollar under pressure, analysts said. Meanwhile, worse-than-expected job growth in the U.S. private sector reported on Wednesday supports the Fed’s view to extend a pause on rate hikes. Private payrolls grew by 129,000 last month, a sharp decline from the 197,000 in February, according to a report released Wednesday by ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Moody's Analytics. That missed economists’ forecast of 184,000. The U.K. Parliament approved a bill to block a no-deal Brexit. The passage of the bill sets the U.K. on course for a long Brexit extension unless Prime Minister Theresa May could manage to salvage her withdrawal deal in the coming days. The U.K. had originally been due to leave the EU on March 29, but the deadline was pushed back to April 12 to allow the U.K. parliament more time to approve the withdrawal agreement. But the agreement has failed to win a majority three times. Sterling firmed after U.K. lawmakers voted to block a so-called no-deal Brexit, although the currency held well within its trading range from the prior day. The pound climbed as much as 0.2 percent to $1.3181 in Asia trading Thursday. The move came after a bill to prevent Britain from tumbling out of the European Union without an agreement passed the House of Commons by a solitary vote. It will now go to the House of Lords, which is widely expected to approve it. The U.K. currency “got a lift though I would have expected a bit more,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “There are still some hurdles to clear.” He sees the pound reaching $1.34 by the end of this quarter, given the declining odds of a no-deal scenario. The situation nonetheless remains exceptionally fluid. While the most recent vote is a step toward a so-called softer Brexit, there are many hard negotiations still to come, and the risk of an election also looms.
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday in Asia following reports that U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week. Despite the fall today, WTI remains up more than 35% for the year and Brent 28%, supported by aggressive production cuts from OPEC and Russian-led allies and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories grew by 7.24 million barrels in the week to March 29.
  • That compared to forecasts for a stockpile draw of 0.43 million barrels, after a gain of 2.80 million barrels in the previous week. The EIA report also showed that gasoline inventories fell by 1.78 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1.54 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles dropped by 2.0 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 0.51 million. In other news, positive signs in the Sino-U.S. trade front eased concerns over the potential negative impact on oil demand from the world’s two biggest oil importers. Trade talks made “good headway” last week in Beijing and the two sides are having further talks to iron out remaining differences, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1,316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 62.50-63.00 63.60 64.50-65.00
EURO/USD 1.13301.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 111.50-111.90 112.50 113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,276 1,269 1,261
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 62.00 61.60 61.00-60.20
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.02 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (4th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1294.55/oz and low of US$1288.36/oz. Gold up by 0.191% at US$1289.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1278) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1284-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1325 keeping stop loss closing above 1325, targeting 1284-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284-1,276
S2     1,269
S3     1,261
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1,316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.531

Buy
20-DMA   1301.21 Buy
50-DMA  

1307.74

Buy
100-DMA   1280.02 Buy
200-DMA   1247.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.18/oz and low of US$15.02/oz. Silver settled up by 0.251% at US$15.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.671 Buy
20-DMA   15.27 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Buy
200-DMA   15.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$62.97/bbl, intraday low of US$61.97/bbl and settled down by 0.223% to close at US$62.48/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.00-65.60 with stop loss at 65.60; targeting 62.50-62.00-61.60 and 61.00-60.20. Buy above 62.50-60.00 with risk daily closing below 60.00 and targeting 63.00-63.60-64.50 and 65.00-65.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00
S2     61.60
S3     61.00-60.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.50-63.00
R2     63.60
R3     64.50-65.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.30 Sell
20-DMA   59.30 Buy
50-DMA   56.75 Buy
100-DMA   53.90 Buy
200-DMA   61.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.078 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1193/EUR, high of US$1.1254/EUR and settled the day up by 0.249% to close at US$1.1231/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.13301.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1297 Sell
50-DMA   1.1335 Sell
100-DMA   1.1357 Sell
200-DMA   1.1469 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3116/GBP, high of US$1.3195/GBP and settled the day up by 0.228% to close at US$1.3153/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3300 with targets at 1.3090-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3070-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.550

Buy
20-DMA   1.3161 Sell
50-DMA   1.3097 Sell
100-DMA   1.2927 Buy
200-DMA   1.2977 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.57/USD and settled the day up by 0.159% at JPY111.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.02
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-111.90
R2     112.50
R3     113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.424 Buy
20-DMA   111.08 Sell
50-DMA   110.51 Buy
100-DMA   111.14 Sell
200-DMA   111.44 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   90.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0465 Buy

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