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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets consolidated their weekly gains on Friday as Sino-U.S. talks produced a lot of headlines but no conclusions, while caution ahead of U.S. payrolls and a holiday in China dampened volatility. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a deal could be announced in about four weeks, but warned it would be difficult to let China trade with the United States if remaining issues were not resolved. Investors are also waiting on the U.S. payrolls report, which is forecast to bounce back by 180,000 in March, following February’s distorted 20,000 rise. One focus will be hourly earnings, which climbed to 3.4 percent in February, the fastest pace since April 2009. Hopes for a solid number were boosted by data on jobless claims which fell to a 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength. The euro was flat at $1.1223 having dipped overnight in the wake of poor German data. Industrial orders there fell by the most in more than two years in February as foreign demand slumped, another sign that Europe’s largest economy had a weak start to the year. Pro-Brexit lawmakers in Britain’s upper house of parliament tried on Thursday to thwart the approval of a new law that would force Prime Minister Theresa May to seek a delay to prevent a disorderly EU exit on April 12 without a deal. A source close to negotiations on the timetable for the bill said they expected it to be finalised on Monday.
  • The dollar rose to a three-week high versus the yen on Friday, lifted by expectations that a protracted trade dispute between the United States and China would be resolved soon. The greenback has gained about 0.85 percent against its safe-haven Japanese peer this week, thanks also to factors such as strong U.S. economic data and broad improvement in risk appetite. The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has been a major distraction for financial markets over the past year, with riskier assets in particular taking a hit on worries about the broadening business and growth impact of the conflict.. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday both countries were getting very close to a trade deal that could be announced within four weeks. On the economic front, investors will have an opportunity to gauge the health of the world's largest economy when the March U.S. jobs report is released at 1230 GMT .Sterling slipped on Thursday, snapping a three-day rising streak, as concerns rose that Britain may be headed for a protracted Brexit delay. Britain could ask the European Union for a long Brexit delay next week if crisis talks between Prime Minister Theresa May's government and the opposition Labour Party fail to find a way out of the impasse over the divorce from the European Union.
  • U.S. employment growth likely rebounded from a 17-month low in March as milder weather boosted activity in sectors like construction, which could further allay fears of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter. Worsening worker shortages and lingering effects of tighter financial market conditions at the turn of the year, however, suggest the job gains probably remained below 2018’s brisk pace The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday would follow on the heels of fairly upbeat construction spending and factory data that led Wall Street banks to boost their growth estimates for the first quarter. Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 180,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Investors will also be watching to see if February’s paltry 20,000 job count, the smallest since September 2017, is revised higher. The economy has shifted into lower gear as stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package as well as increased government spending fades. A trade war between Washington and Beijing, and slowing global growth have also taken a toll on the economy, which in July will celebrate 10 years of expansion, the longest on record. Growth forecasts for the first quarter are between a 1.4 percent and 2.1 percent annualized rate. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter, stepping down from the July-September quarter’s brisk 3.4 percent pace.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent slipping away from the $70 mark after briefly rising above that level in the previous session, hurt by supply concerns and worries about progress in U.S.-China trade talks. Oil prices have gained this year after the OPEC and producer allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to prevent a supply overhang from growing. Prices are now finely balanced, said Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy in London U.S. crude oil stockpiles soared unexpectedly last week as imports climbed and production edged higher to a new record, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Brent has gained nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has risen nearly 40 percent, underpinned by the OPEC production cuts, along with U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a trade deal with China was getting very close and could be reached in about four weeks, but he said sticking points included tariffs and intellectual property theft. Other bearish economic indicators this week included lower German factory orders, which fell in February by the sharpest rate in more than two years. Orders were hit by a slump in foreign demand, compounding worries that Europe's largest economy had a weak start to the year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1.316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.0016.00
Crude Oil 62.50-63.00 63.60 64.50-65.00
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 111.90-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,276 1,269 1,261
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 62.00 61.60 61.00-60.20
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 110.60-111.00 110.02 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (5th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1294.35/oz and low of US$1280.88/oz. Gold up by 0.182% at US$1292.12/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1278) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1284-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1325 keeping stop loss closing above 1325, targeting 1284-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284-1,276
S2     1,269
S3     1,261
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1.316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.531

Buy
20-DMA   1301.21 Buy
50-DMA  

1307.74

Buy
100-DMA   1280.02 Buy
200-DMA   1247.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.16/oz and low of US$14.88/oz. Silver settled up by 0.331% at US$15.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.0016.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.671 Buy
20-DMA   15.27 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Buy
200-DMA   15.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$62.78/bbl, intraday low of US$61.92/bbl and settled down by 0.527% to close at US$62.18/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.00-65.60 with stop loss at 65.60; targeting 62.50-62.00-61.60 and 61.00-60.20. Buy above 62.50-60.00 with risk daily closing below 60.00 and targeting 63.00-63.60-64.50 and 65.00-65.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00
S2     61.60
S3     61.00-60.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.50-63.00
R2     63.60
R3     64.50-65.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.30 Sell
20-DMA   59.30 Buy
50-DMA   56.75 Buy
100-DMA   53.90 Buy
200-DMA   61.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.078 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1205/EUR, high of US$1.1205/EUR and settled the day down by 0.106% to close at US$1.1219/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1297 Sell
50-DMA   1.1335 Sell
100-DMA   1.1357 Sell
200-DMA   1.1469 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3059/GBP, high of US$1.3190/GBP and settled the day down by 0.608% to close at US$1.3072/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3070-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.550

Buy
20-DMA   1.3161 Sell
50-DMA   1.3097 Sell
100-DMA   1.2927 Buy
200-DMA   1.2977 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.67/USD and settled the day up by 0.145% at JPY111.64/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-111.00
S2     110.02
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.424 Buy
20-DMA   111.05 Sell
50-DMA   110.73 Buy
100-DMA   111.00 Sell
200-DMA   111.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.165 Buy

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