AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares inched up to seven-month highs on Monday as investors cheered a rebound in U.S. payrolls and hints of more stimulus in China, though there was some caution ahead of what is likely to be a tough U.S. earnings season. In a document published on the central government’s website late on Sunday, Beijing said it would step up a policy of targeted cuts to banks’ required reserve ratios to encourage financing for small and medium-sized businesses. However, a test looms as major U.S. banks kick off what analysts expect to be the first quarter of contracting corporate earnings since 2016. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting are due out on Wednesday. There was a huge sigh of relief globally on Friday when the U.S. payrolls report showed a solid 196,000 rise in jobs in March, while annual wage growth slowed a little to 3.2 percent.
  • Dollar slipped on Monday in Asia following the release of the country's job data. Progress on the Sino-U.S. trade front remained in focus after the latest round of negotiations wrapped up last Friday. On Friday, government data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 182,000, which is more than the expected 175,000, but average hourly earnings grew at a slower pace than anticipated, indicating that the economy was not firing on all cylinders and supported the Federal Reserve’s decision to extend its pause on hiking rates Meanwhile, trade talks were in focus today as officials from Beijing and Washington concluded their latest round of trade talks last Friday Chinese official broadcaster CCTV reported that there was “new progress” in trade negotiations. The two sides have discussed issues including technology transfer, protection of intellectual property rights, and the bilateral trade balance. Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, told CBS on Sunday that the two sides are “closer and closer” on a trade deal, although the White House said in a statement that “significant work remains, and the principals, deputy ministers, and delegation members will be in continuous contact to resolve outstanding issues." EU leaders said Prime Minister Theresa May had not put forward credible reasons as to why the U.K. should be granted an extension for Brexit. The U.K. had originally been due to leave the EU on March 29, but the deadline was pushed back to April 12 to allow the U.K. parliament more time to approve the withdrawal agreement, which it has been unable to do.
  • The dollar sagged on Monday as bond yields extended their decline after a U.S. jobs report showed wage growth lose momentum even as employment increased. The closely watched data released on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a solid 196,000 in March, topping expectations and giving riskier assets a much-needed lift. However, other components of the U.S. employment report suggested the economy wasn't firing on all cylinders. Wage gains slowed in March, with average hourly earnings rising a modest 0.1 percent after jumping 0.4 percent in February. Treasury yields slipped and weighed on the dollar as the moderation in wage growth supported the Federal Reserve's decision to suspend further interest rate increases this year U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up their latest round of trade talks on Friday and were scheduled to resume discussions next week to try to secure a pact that would end a months-long tit-for-tat tariff battle Britain's departure from the European Union looms on April 12, but Prime Minister Theresa May has asked Brussels to postpone the exit until June 30 with little progress being made toward the departure. The pound slipped to a one-week low of $1.2987 on Friday as France and the Netherlands expressed doubt about May's plan to further delay Brexit.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent slipping away from the $70 mark after briefly rising Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on Monday, driven upwards by OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and strong U.S. jobs data. To prop up prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year. Energy consultancy FGE said these cuts meant "excess inventories are disappearing," adding that "the market is poised for prices to rise to $75 per barrel or higher" for Brent. Strong U.S. jobs data on Friday also helped lift Asian markets on Monday Crude has been driven up further by U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Despite the host of price drivers, there remain factors that could bring oil down later this year. Russia is a reluctant participant in its agreement with OPEC to withhold output, and it may increase production if the deal is not extended before it expires on July 1, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday. Russian oil output reached a national record high of 11.16 million bpd last year. In the United States, crude production reached a global record 12.2 million bpd in late March U.S. crude exports have also risen, breaking through 3 million bpd for the first time earlier this year. There also remain concerns about the health of the global economy, especially should China and the United States fail to resolve their trade dispute soon.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1,309 1,316-1,325
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 63.60 64.50-65.00 65.90
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 111.90-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,284 1,276 1,269-1,261
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 63.00-62.50 62.00 61.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (8th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1293.52/oz and low of US$1284.23/oz. Gold down by 0.0549% at US$1291.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1294-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1300-1325 keeping stop loss closing above 1325, targeting 1294-1286-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,294-1,284
S2     1,276
S3     1,269-1,261
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1,316-1,325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.217

Buy
20-DMA   1301.53 Sell
50-DMA  

1307.75

Sell
100-DMA   1283.46 Buy
200-DMA   1248.71 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.648 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.10/oz and low of US$15.05/oz. Silver settled up by 0.0529% at US$15.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.671 Buy
20-DMA   15.27 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Buy
200-DMA   15.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$63.32/bbl, intraday low of US$61.85/bbl and settled up by 1.715% to close at US$63.25/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.60-65.90 with stop loss at 65.90; targeting 63.00-62.50-62.00 and 61.60-61.00. Buy above 63.00-60.00 with risk daily closing below 60.00 and targeting 63.60-64.50 and 65.00-65.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.00-62.50
S2     62.00
S3     61.60-61.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.60
R2     64.50-65.00
R3     65.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.104 Sell
20-DMA   60.23 Buy
50-DMA   57.35 Buy
100-DMA   54.10 Buy
200-DMA   61.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.078 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1209/EUR, high of US$1.1247/EUR and settled the day down by 0.041% to close at US$1.1214/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1297 Sell
50-DMA   1.1335 Sell
100-DMA   1.1357 Sell
200-DMA   1.1469 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2986/GBP, high of US$1.3121/GBP and settled the day down by 0.283% to close at US$1.3035/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.81/USD and settled the day up by 0.0653% at JPY111.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.800 Buy
20-DMA   111.06 Buy
50-DMA   110.77 Buy
100-DMA   110.97 Buy
200-DMA   111.48 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.165 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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